Tesla solar roof - orders being taken next week

[SunEagle]

Since information seems a bit sparse on the product/system at this time, FWIW, I intend to wait and see :

1.) IF a product is produced. 2.) IF it makes it to a roof. 3.) What any collected data looks like. 4.) How it holds up.

Until I see a product actually hit the market, seems a lot of B.S. to me, like tourism to the moon.

What's the matter. You don't want to pay the 50 cents now for the side show that may show up next year?

[peakbagger]

My speculations

They will sell it as lifetime roof solution similar to standing seam galvalume roofing

They will compare against 20 year asphalt shingles

Thus 5 new shingle roofs plus disposal costs for the old shingles compared to one Tesla roof.

I expect the federal 30% tax credit will also be used to subsidize the cost of the entire roof even though north facing roofs sure don't get a lot of sun exposure in my area.

The numbers will work just about as well as a 100K Tesla paying itself off in fuel savings Someone is buying Tesla cars and expect those same folks will buy a Tesla Solar roof. Usually there are early adopters that pay whatever it will cost just so they can say they were first and expect there will be folks with extra income who buy it just because its green. An of course for us Sci Fi folks we all need to buy one to support the local Road network (caution a very obscure reference to Robert Heinlein's the Roads Must Roll wherein society had replaced all the power plants with roof integrated solar panels on all buildings)

By the way the trick with standing seam roofs to their long life (at least in my area) is that most installers got sick of call back for leaks and now install a rubberized asphalt underlayment (grace storm shield )under the standing seam material . Even it the standing seam leaks, any water that gets underneath runs down under the standing seam on top of the storm shield and drips out at the fascia trim As long as the storm shield is kept out of UV it lasts a very long time, far longer than any contractor will be in business. I expect that Tesla roof installers will figure that out pretty quick. Of course a solar roof is going to have numerous lead wires that need to penetrate the underlying membrane unless they have wiring channels that dump out to a covered gutter so who knows how they are going guarantee a long term water tight seal?

I look forward to real documentation but expect installs and documentation might be restricted to dealers dumb enough to get on the bandwagon. If I remember correctly a solar junk merchant in Florida was given away solar shingles last year for the cost of freight to empty his warehouse.

[SunEagle]

My speculations

They will sell it as lifetime roof solution similar to standing seam galvalume roofing

They will compare against 20 year asphalt shingles

Thus 5 new shingle roofs plus disposal costs for the old shingles compared to one Tesla roof.

I expect the federal 30% tax credit will also be used to subsidize the cost of the entire roof even though north facing roofs sure don't get a lot of sun exposure in my area.

The numbers will work just about as well as a 100K Tesla paying itself off in fuel savings Someone is buying Tesla cars and expect those same folks will buy a Tesla Solar roof. Usually there are early adopters that pay whatever it will cost just so they can say they were first and expect there will be folks with extra income who buy it just because its green. An of course for us Sci Fi folks we all need to buy one to support the local Road network (caution a very obscure reference to Robert Heinlein's the Roads Must Roll wherein society had replaced all the power plants with roof integrated solar panels on all buildings)

By the way the trick with standing seam roofs to their long life (at least in my area) is that most installers got sick of call back for leaks and now install a rubberized asphalt underlayment (grace storm shield )under the standing seam material . Even it the standing seam leaks, any water that gets underneath runs down under the standing seam on top of the storm shield and drips out at the fascia trim As long as the storm shield is kept out of UV it lasts a very long time, far longer than any contractor will be in business. I expect that Tesla roof installers will figure that out pretty quick. Of course a solar roof is going to have numerous lead wires that need to penetrate the underlying membrane unless they have wiring channels that dump out to a covered gutter so who knows how they are going guarantee a long term water tight seal?

I look forward to real documentation but expect installs and documentation might be restricted to dealers dumb enough to get on the bandwagon. If I remember correctly a solar junk merchant in Florida was given away solar shingles last year for the cost of freight to empty his warehouse.

What may be a short coming of the Tesla roof is that like all pv systems they will not really work well on all roof surfaces that get any shade or that face North. The increased cost for the Tesla shingle for that part of the roof may offset any savings gained from the pv generated shingles.

So the Tesla roof may only be good for East, South and West roof surfaces and then if the Fire code requires any set back distances then not even the entire surface of those roofs can be covered. Then the rest of the roof would need to have some other type of material that either matches the looks of the Tesla roof but is cheaper to make and install.

Too many possibilities to think about.

[J.P.M.]

What's the matter. You don't want to pay the 50 cents now for the side show that may show up next year?

I appreciate the humor, but no. I'd be less than candid if I didn't say that I see this thread's subject as another near occasion of sin, and some fertile ground for the Dan K. types to puke out more drivel that would get out of hand and degenerate, as his input usually and often inspires, only to end in the thread being closed. On the other hand, I suppose I can always ignore the thread.

Just seems like this is more the caliber of stuff I'd expect to find on mickey mouse sites. We can do better.

I appreciate discussion of what if's and possible future progress, as much or maybe more than most, but in situations like this, and this subject matter, I don't see a high probability of much that's useful being added to much of anything. Kind of like talking about solving humankind's current problems by discussing how to colonization other planets.

[SunEagle]

Actually I reached out to DOW about 5 years ago asking to have a test system installed on my roof using their solar shingles since they had not gotten formal approval to use them in Florida yet. But they turned me down. (Happy they did). It is an interesting idea and I really wished DOW had succeeded in making a viable product.

While I like to pull Tesla's tail on their new adventure into this type of product I know how difficult a path it is going to be. As I said I worked for a company that made Building Materials for over 6 years and roofing was a major product so I understand a little about what goes into it's production and installation.

Tesla may do a better job then DOW but with all of the other fires they have going on I suspect this one is going to be another KickStarter way of getting funding that is doomed to fail.

[Sunking]

Anything with Elon Musk name on it is a ripoff.

[Laspher]

I think it would be cool if their idea was viable, but the PV output for a home like mine (yes currently electrically bloated) wouldn't benefit much, I have a fairly small roof given that I am basically in a 2 story house. I also am in the boat of north and south facing, with a maximum usable surface area of 442 ft²

On that 442 ft² I could fit 19 SunPower E20 435 watt panels (largest panel I could find on a quick google search), giving me a total of 8,265 watts of peak output, assuming my roof was not shaded (it is), and further assuming my roof has the optimal tilt (about 35 degrees) for my latitudinal location (which it isn't) for a fixed tilt panel installation.

Mid-post question, what would an ~70v output charge? As I've not heard talk here about anything above 48v.

I honestly don't think that 1) Tesla could match that output, and 2) that it would be viable for me unless I can get my 60kWh cut down drastically.

[inetdog]

I would say that the biggest roadblock to advancement will be getting them exempted from the setback requirements that fire codes currently specify for conventional panels.
The solar shingle would not be the mechanical impediment that panels are to cutting a hole in the roof for ventilation, but I would expect a fire fighter to be at least a little nervous about putting an axe through the middle of an illuminated string.
Will they have per-shingle rapid shutdown?

[Laspher]

Will they have per-shingle rapid shutdown?

One of many questions we would need answered.

[SunEagle]

I would say that the biggest roadblock to advancement will be getting them exempted from the setback requirements that fire codes currently specify for conventional panels.
The solar shingle would not be the mechanical impediment that panels are to cutting a hole in the roof for ventilation, but I would expect a fire fighter to be at least a little nervous about putting an axe through the middle of an illuminated string.
Will they have per-shingle rapid shutdown?

All that and still be cheaper then a standard roof material seems like a stretch to me.

Maybe if you compare the cost of a solar pv system and a high priced tiled roof against a solar shingle roof you could be cheaper but compared to the the cost of even a standard 30 year shingle roof to one that is compose of those solar shingles it is not going to be cheap when you add in all of the rest of the pv system hardware.

We will have to wait and see what Tesla proposes but based on the history of the PowerWall battery system I would not hold my breath.

[peakbagger]

In the original roll out they showed "blank" panels that were used to fill in gaps where PV shingles were not used and to deal with spots where shingles would needed to cut like dormers and valleys. That is the approach used by the predecessors, fill out the roof with standard PV modules that would not be molested by a roofer and then fill in gaps with matching shingles with no PV. I expect the setback requirements could be easily met by putting in these blank panels as needed along the edges and ridge of the roof.

[SunEagle]

In the original roll out they showed "blank" panels that were used to fill in gaps where PV shingles were not used and to deal with spots where shingles would needed to cut like dormers and valleys. That is the approach used by the predecessors, fill out the roof with standard PV modules that would not be molested by a roofer and then fill in gaps with matching shingles with no PV. I expect the setback requirements could be easily met by putting in these blank panels as needed along the edges and ridge of the roof.

Smart idea. At least that would make the roof look more uniform.

[silverhorsefarm]

I know Elon attracts more than his fair share of detractors, but give the guy chance. He does tend to over promise and under deliver, but if he can pull a PV roofing tile off at a price point people will pay, he could change the world. The powerwall and powerpack really seem very promising. My Mercedes has a Tesla battery and motor and I love it. It's the best car I've ever owned.

[J.P.M.]

I know Elon attracts more than his fair share of detractors, but give the guy chance. He does tend to over promise and under deliver, but if he can pull a PV roofing tile off at a price point people will pay, he could change the world. The powerwall and powerpack really seem very promising. My Mercedes has a Tesla battery and motor and I love it. It's the best car I've ever owned.

He's a con man and has his share of detractors for a lot of very good reasons. Much more thunder than lightning. The quality of your Mercedes has much more to do with Mercedes than Musk.

[silverhorsefarm]

I am a fan, I am not ashamed to admit it. You don't win car of the year with a bad product. SpaceX has done things no one else has. He's making some big bets, and his mouth/twitter account get him in trouble, but I think he can pull off what he promises. I hope you're wrong. It's tempting to imagine a world where rooftop solar and batteries are ubiquitous and we can jettison coal in favor of a base load met by PV and gas peakers.