Mythical $3.50/watt installation?

[donald]

I wonder sometimes if after the tax incentive ends prices will come down sharply due the lack of demand. Salespeople have been very agressive and harassing me to do it now because of the Net Metering expiration by end of the year. I have been a bit reluctant to jump in.
My bids are on the $18k to $19k range for a 4.6KW system before tax break. If I can get down to $16k for a reliable brand and installer I might jump in.

I don't think prices will come down sharply. I think installers will at first try to "split the difference" of the 30% loss with their prospective customers. For customers anticipating a price rise, that may work for awhile. But in a stable, competitive market, the more installers make in 2017, the more competition they will draw in. There are not large barriers to entry in the solar install biz, so prices fall to where sole proprietor owners are making an electricians wage.

I imagine there are already electricians in markets like coastal California who will install solar at a day rate or $400-500. So say an electrician and his apprentice for two days. With permits, say $2-3000 total. The owner buys the equipment. So lets say $8K for a 5K system by 2019. Particularly if permitting is streamlined.

Solar is an house integrated appliance. As I said earlier, I think the profitability and business methodology will be similiar to replacing HVAC equipment. That does not involve sending a moderately skilled crew out to do the install and billing them at thousands of dollars per hour. Well, actually it does now, but that won't last.

Buy or wait is a tough decision.

[racerfern]

I just got quoted $3.30 for an 11.4kW system. Unfortunately I don't know actual consumption since I don't move in until Mid-June. At that point PSEG-LI will tell me what the previous family used over the last 12 months.

I'm inclined to go higher since all of a sudden an electric dryer or electric radiant heat in bathrooms is not such a big deal. I doubt I could get a second set of rebates and credits if I wanted to expand the system so it seems to make sense to get it over with up front, once and for all.

Thoughts anyone?

[gugy]

I don't think prices will come down sharply. I think installers will at first try to "split the difference" of the 30% loss with their prospective customers. For customers anticipating a price rise, that may work for awhile. But in a stable, competitive market, the more installers make in 2017, the more competition they will draw in. There are not large barriers to entry in the solar install biz, so prices fall to where sole proprietor owners are making an electricians wage.

I imagine there are already electricians in markets like coastal California who will install solar at a day rate or $400-500. So say an electrician and his apprentice for two days. With permits, say $2-3000 total. The owner buys the equipment. So lets say $8K for a 5K system by 2019. Particularly if permitting is streamlined.

Solar is an house integrated appliance. As I said earlier, I think the profitability and business methodology will be similiar to replacing HVAC equipment. That does not involve sending a moderately skilled crew out to do the install and billing them at thousands of dollars per hour. Well, actually it does now, but that won't last.

Buy or wait is a tough decision.

Yeah, I am on the fence literally.
I can se the draw for me paying off the system in 5 years and then have most of my electricity free after that initial investment. Doing my crude calculations, I would pay an additional $60p/month than my regular current SDGE bill in these 5 years after the tax break. That's not too bad BUT, I feel after my initial experience dealing with three different salesmen that this solar thing is just like buying a car on a dealership. You can haggle and all but you always have the feeling you are being on a losing end of a negotiation. They all promise a great investment and price but coming here I figure out that wasn't so true.
On the other hand I wonder if I should not to miss the boat with so many tax incentives happening right now. Decisions, decisions....

[lkstaack]

I just got quoted $3.30 for an 11.4kW system. Unfortunately I don't know actual consumption since I don't move in until Mid-June. At that point PSEG-LI will tell me what the previous family used over the last 12 months.

I'm inclined to go higher since all of a sudden an electric dryer or electric radiant heat in bathrooms is not such a big deal. I doubt I could get a second set of rebates and credits if I wanted to expand the system so it seems to make sense to get it over with up front, once and for all.

Thoughts anyone?

Like many others (including myself at one time), you are under the misimpression that solar will be "free" once you pay the initial costs. But it's not free, your just paying for the power upfront. If you overbuild your system, you may be paying more than if you didn't have solar at all.

[bcroe]

Like many others (including myself at one time), you are under the misimpression that solar will be "free" once you pay the initial costs. But it's not free, your just paying for the power upfront.

I fail to see ANY difference, between paying upfront, and "free" once you pay the initial costs.

If you overbuild your system, you may be paying more than if
you didn't have solar at all.

This will be very important to those putting financial considerations at the pinnacle of their
decision making process. it also assumes that all aspects of the future, esp financial, can
actually be predicted with extreme accuracy and certainty. Some do not do this. Bruce Roe

[tj289]

The bids I have received were for Sunworld, Sunpower, and LG panels. Proposals are 20-22k and 16-20 panels (4.4kw- 5.4kw). Part of cost is to alter or replace main power panel ($1200-$2000) to make it code compliant. Shade is an issue unless I cut down the mature shade providing trees I have which would drastically change the character and curb appeal of my residence and have the panels prominently displayed on the street facing portion of the house. The panels most likely will be placed on east facing roof but tilted up to get the most benefit from them. My electric bill is approx $150 average monthly, 8000 kw hrs used last 12 months.

The proposals will need to be in the $3.5-3.75/w range, as commonly suggested by others on this forum, to make it feasable and so far I'm not even close.

That is why I asked for the installer used by thejq since his system size, product, and price are similar to what I was looking for. I plan to obtain two or three more bids and if anybody can point a direction to an installer or company that would be appreciated.

Happy Trails,

TJ

[gugy]

The bids I have received were for Sunworld, Sunpower, and LG panels. Proposals are 20-22k and 16-20 panels (4.4kw- 5.4kw). Part of cost is to alter or replace main power panel ($1200-$2000) to make it code compliant. Shade is an issue unless I cut down the mature shade providing trees I have which would drastically change the character and curb appeal of my residence and have the panels prominently displayed on the street facing portion of the house. The panels most likely will be placed on east facing roof but tilted up to get the most benefit from them. My electric bill is approx $150 average monthly, 8000 kw hrs used last 12 months.

The proposals will need to be in the $3.5-3.75/w range, as commonly suggested by others on this forum, to make it feasable and so far I'm not even close.

That is why I asked for the installer used by thejq since his system size, product, and price are similar to what I was looking for. I plan to obtain two or three more bids and if anybody can point a direction to an installer or company that would be appreciated.

Happy Trails,

TJ

Your quote is expensive. For a 4.6kw I received a $18 to $19k bid from 3 different companies. The electric panel is same as you mentioned.
I keep hearing that I can do better than this in San Diego. I hope so.

[tj289]

Sounds like we have the same dilemma gugy . The solarworld offer was the 4.4kw for approx $20.5K. When I am done collecting the bids I will pick the top two or three and see what their bottom line price is. If I can't get it at reasonable price, I will do without and re-evaluate at a later time.

TJ

[paris401]

I just got quoted $3.30 for an 11.4kW system. Unfortunately I don't know actual consumption since I don't move in until Mid-June. At that point PSEG-LI will tell me what the previous family used over the last 12 months.

I'm inclined to go higher since all of a sudden an electric dryer or electric radiant heat in bathrooms is not such a big deal. I doubt I could get a second set of rebates and credits if I wanted to expand the system so it seems to make sense to get it over with up front, once and for all.
Thoughts anyone?

I too am on long island (Montauk) n about to pull the trigger.. I 'think' I've decided on the installer.. quotes are
31 Hyundai 270's = 3.55
or
31 lg 305's = 3.95
ofcourse that's b4 rebates

I'm leaning towards the smaller system, as it will cover 95%+ of last years bill, and with a bit more conservation... led bulbs...etc, mite cover my whole bill..

your quote 3.30 is excellent... can u tell me the installers name and equipment they intend on using... u can post or, pm me.. thanks

[JetRanger]

I too am on long island (Montauk) n about to pull the trigger.. I 'think' I've decided on the installer.. quotes are
31 Hyundai 270's = 3.55
or
31 lg 305's = 3.95
ofcourse that's b4 rebates

I'm leaning towards the smaller system, as it will cover 95%+ of last years bill, and with a bit more conservation... led bulbs...etc, mite cover my whole bill..

your quote 3.30 is excellent... can u tell me the installers name and equipment they intend on using... u can post or, pm me.. thanks

New here. We just signed to install 40 SunPower 327's with SolarEdge optimizers / inverters at $3.64/w. The LGs were an option as well around 3.25/w if I recall...

[J.P.M.]

New here. We just signed to install 40 SunPower 327's with SolarEdge optimizers / inverters at $3.64/w. The LGs were an option as well around 3.25/w if I recall...

Before or after fed. tax credit ?

[JetRanger]

Before or after fed. tax credit ?

Before. After would be $2.06 per watt.

[paris401]

New here. We just signed to install 40 SunPower 327's with SolarEdge optimizers / inverters at $3.64/w. The LGs were an option as well around 3.25/w if I recall...

that's another excellent price- I have a quote for 37 335 sunpower panels/solaredge optimizers , but my price is 4.23/w- and from another installer lg 305's at $3.95/w

can u post or pm me which installer is giving u these prices... I'm ready to pull the trigger..thanks

[JetRanger]

that's another excellent price- I have a quote for 37 335 sunpower panels/solaredge optimizers , but my price is 4.23/w- and from another installer lg 305's at $3.95/w

can u post or pm me which installer is giving u these prices... I'm ready to pull the trigger..thanks

Sending you a PM.

[tj289]

If those were the prices I was looking at or offered, my decision would be a no brainer.........

TJ