Mythical $3.50/watt installation?

[UkiwiS]

I'm not in California but I can tell you what I did to get a better deal. I purchased my system. Don't be afraid to make offers and get creative. Once I got the best offer from four companies, I chose a trusted, locally-owned solar business to do my entire install. They priced it at $19,000 up front. I said I would sign if they came down to $18,500. They agreed and then I offered to pay the majority of the cost up front (80%) and got a further 2.5% discount (down to $18,000 now). That left me at $2.71/W before tax credits incentives for a 6.63kW turn-key system.

To my further delight, they let me use a cash-back credit card to pay (which I promptly paid in full of course). After all tax credits and incentives I ended up at $11,170 total for my system. That's $1.68/W. It went online last November so I only waited a few months to get my federal and state credits applied.

Excellent negotiation skills there! Love it!

[J.P.M.]

I'm not in California but I can tell you what I did to get a better deal. I purchased my system. Don't be afraid to make offers and get creative. Once I got the best offer from four companies, I chose a trusted, locally-owned solar business to do my entire install. They priced it at $19,000 up front. I said I would sign if they came down to $18,500. They agreed and then I offered to pay the majority of the cost up front (80%) and got a further 2.5% discount (down to $18,000 now). That left me at $2.71/W before tax credits incentives for a 6.63kW turn-key system.

To my further delight, they let me use a cash-back credit card to pay (which I promptly paid in full of course). After all tax credits and incentives I ended up at $11,170 total for my system. That's $1.68/W. It went online last November so I only waited a few months to get my federal and state credits applied.

A good example of using all/most of the available tools.

[donald]

Kitchen appliances (like a fridge) have gotten more efficient and sophisticated over the decades but you will pay more now then you would have 5 years ago. Same for washer and dryers. Hopefully not for solar.

Solar is a near commodity that produces a commodity. Much of the price guidance for solar equipment price reduction to 2020 originates from the manufacturers. As with microprocessors, solar component manufacturers assume they have to continually reduce price to stay in business. Today's costs are close to the sunshot goals set in 2010 for 2020.

But most of the added cost in the U.S. are the soft costs originating from unsustainable business practices in an immature solar market.

[bcroe]

Solar is a near commodity that produces a commodity. Much of the price guidance for solar equipment price reduction to 2020 originates from the manufacturers. As with microprocessors, solar component manufacturers assume they have to continually reduce price to stay in business. Today's costs are close to the sunshot goals set in 2010 for 2020.

But most of the added cost in the U.S. are the soft costs originating from unsustainable business practices in
an immature solar market.

Microprocessors got cheaper because the silicon processing steadily improved. The same could be said for the cells
used in panels. But the cost of the aluminum, steel, copper, and nuts & bolts is not going to drop. Inverters
are already amazingly cheap for what you get; features might increase, but I doubt prices will see much decrease.
Nor will the skilled labor to do installation. Once the overhead is streamlined, you are about there, baring a
revolutionary inovation in panel efficiency. Bruce Roe

[ButchDeal]

Microprocessors got cheaper because the silicon processing steadily improved. The same could be said for the cells used in panels.

Well not really the same. Basically with CPUs, the photo processing systems that allowed printing micro processors improved, such that the number of transistors you could fit in an area doubled roughly every year. This meant that you could make computers faster and do more in the same space and that annually new cpus would obsolete old ones.
There is no corollary in solar and solar does not obsolete just because new cells have 0.01% more efficiency. You do have the reduction in costs due to efficiencies in larger manufacturing quantities.

Plus it is likely that regulations will in the near term increase costs of solar (in some areas), with more disconnects, rapid shutdown, larger setbacks, HOA sight lines rules, etc.

[paris401]

A good example of using all/most of the available tools.

when I put in panels at my sons home, the solar company will take up to 10k on credit cards... so I used 3cards... got $800 bucks from from chase, and 50k of American airline points, good for '2' first class upgrades from san diego/ny ...

will do the same thing when I install panels at my home..

[donald]

I wasn't making a case for Moore's Law with solar. I was making the a case for a technology product where steady price/performance improvement is expected. If you are the CTO of a panel manufacturer and can't convince the board that you have a three year plan of price/performance improvements you will not have a job.

From the article I posted:

Panels to fall in price to $US0.50/watt

Deutsche Bank says that while overhangs like trade cases or minimum price agreements could cloud the near term, market inefficiencies will be worked out over the long term and the clearing price will reach $0.50 or lower within the next several years.

Companies like SunEdison have publically targeted $0.40 cent per watt panels by the end of 2016, and many Tier 1 Chinese manufacturers are achieving sub $0.50/w already in 2014. :Given that most manufacturers are improving 1-2 cents per quarter, less than ten cents improvement (to reach $0.40) over the next 12 quarters is likely conservative.

If panels are sold at a 10 cent gross margin for a total cost of $0.50/w, manufacturers would achieve 20% gross margin – well above recent historic averages. Furthermore, transportation costs and ‘soft costs’ which inefficiently raise the price of panels should gradually improve as governments work through trade issues

[J.P.M.]

But most of the added cost in the U.S. are the soft costs originating from unsustainable business practices in an immature solar market.

With those business practices supported by tax credits that allowed vendors to charge higher prices and thus keep going who would never have started much less survived in a fair market.

[KRenn]

Amazing how much more expensive California solar is. Here in AZ we are doing cash purchase deals at $3.10/watt installed.

$2.70 a watt is the lowest I've seen from a major company.

[DanKegel]

$2.70 a watt is the lowest I've seen from a major company.

Wow. What city, kw, and panel type?

I just got a quote for $3.47/watt cash before rebates for an 8.8 kw system in urban Los Angeles (25 lg305's plus 4 gxb300's, two of which are reverse tilt mounted, all on a sloped roof). $2.20/watt after rebates. I expect it to generate about 35kwh/day avg. Naive payback time is about 10 years if grid power is $0.16/kwh, 7 years if it's $0.20/kwh. This is from a small local installer.

[Carl_NH]

Installed 7.2KW - 21 LG300 and SE optimizers December 2014

$26,100 or $3.62/watt

State & Federal Rebates $11,700.

Net Cost $14,400 or $2/watt

Real Cost Assumptions:

40 Man hours on Site @ $80 burdened rate $3200.

Permitting / Paperwork Process by vendor $1000.

Material Cost $15,000.

Total Vendor Cost $19,200

Vendor Profit $7000

DIY Installation

Since PV is "new" here there are not many electricians that will sign off on a DIY General Contractor installation or roofers that install solar panels but if they did here is what I believe will be the "future costs" once mainstream:

Materials $16,000.

Electrician $1000 - 10 hours $100/hour

Roof Installation $2500 - 25 hours $100/hour

Misc Hardware Materials $500.

Total Installed Cost $20,000

Last, cost/watt is regional based on demand, and as many other posts have stated, PV solar can be installed easily and inexpensively.

Carl

[DrBriggs]

Carl, who did your install? I'm in nearby Dover, and have started getting estimates on an 8 kw system. The first one came in at $5 per watt!!! So I'd love to know who did yours.

Thanks!
Mike

[Carl_NH]

Carl, who did your install? I'm in nearby Dover, and have started getting estimates on an 8 kw system. The first one came in at $5 per watt!!! So I'd love to know who did yours.

Thanks!
Mike

Mike,

Revision Energy did ours - it was a very straight forward install on our garage roof and roughly 20' of electrical runs. The reason I state this is every installation is different -needing electrical panel upgrades, installing on two roof areas and more will impact the $ per watt.

Before I went out to quote I did the PV Watts calculation, then a current usage cost analysis and put a reduction plan in place (LED lighting, and longer term mini split heat pump) then did a fairly detailed assessment of materials and general assumptions on labor. I also had a friend that installed a system from Revision too, so I knew (they did too) what to expect $ wise.

So going into the quote process I sent the general requirements/goals to three companies in late August last year and signed a contract late September. Since that time, I have heard Revision pricing has increased but they will be competitive and they do a quality installation.

Do your homework, get some estimates, and gain knowledge - like on here and talk to other people too.

Carl

[DanKegel]

You might want to edit out those vendor names. Board policy is not to name installers except in private messages.

[Carl_NH]

You might want to edit out those vendor names. Board policy is not to name installers except in private messages.

Respectfully, I think the board policy is not to provide web links and or direct contact information about the vendors, but to mention the supplier is acceptable.

This forum is not the place for the suppliers or vendors to hawk their goods is the intent I believe.

I have not seen or witnessed the mention of the installer or supplier to be objectionable, if so reference to Solar City, LG, Solar Edge, Sun Power or any supplier would be an issue.