PV systems pricing dropping in 2023

[nerdralph]

I do not know what 2% uptake means. What subsidy are you talking about?
No one needs purchase extra power for nighttime or winter, I saved the PoCo
from generating those kWh, and saved the transmission losses they will later
use to power me in winter. Bruce Roe

I think the point is that in the summer, the utility is giving you full retail credit for the surplus power. That gets stepped up from 240 to the distribution voltage and then back down to 240 to get used by nearby customers. There are losses at both those transformers, and there are costs associated with maintaining the local power distribution network.

As I mentioned earlier, the system works up here because the renewable energy is worth more than the power generated from their coal plants (currently supplying around half of the energy).

[nerdralph]

This article refers to prices as low as 12 Euro cents per watt.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/10/20/europe-may-go-back-to-normal-inventory-levels-by-june-2024/

[DanS26]

Uptake is just the numbers of REMC members that have signed up for the net metering scheme that you participate in.

The subsidy is the fact that your POCO is in effect paying you retail rate for power you produce....i.e. overpaying for power. The fact that it is an offset and not a $ transaction does not make any difference....a kWh is a kWh. This is no problem as long as not very many members participate. But if you get more than ~5% uptake then someone has to pay and it's the non-participants.

I suspect your REMC treats this a a marketing and advertising or community service cost. It makes for a great story in the community.

[nerdralph]

Uptake is just the numbers of REMC members that have signed up for the net metering scheme that you participate in.

The subsidy is the fact that your POCO is in effect paying you retail rate for power you produce....i.e. overpaying for power. The fact that it is an offset and not a $ transaction does not make any difference....a kWh is a kWh. This is no problem as long as not very many members participate. But if you get more than ~5% uptake then someone has to pay and it's the non-participants.

I suspect your REMC treats this a a marketing and advertising or community service cost. It makes for a great story in the community.

It is much more nuanced than that. Distributed generation such as solar in some cases can offset the need for transmission upgrades from higher demand. When I was young, I didn't know anyone with air conditioning in their house. Higher summer demand from higher penetration of AC could require transmission upgrades, and in most markets more than half of the retail electricity tariff is transmission/distribution. Generation costs are often in the $20-$40/MWh range (see pjm.com). Given the high cost of grid upgrades, $150 for a bi-directional meter and 1:1 net metering tariffs might be a cheaper option.

[SunEagle]

I just read an article stating the cost of solar in NY was about $4.3/watt and the US average was a little lower at $4.2/watt. I have run the numbers and at $2/watt it will still take me 10 to 12 years for a payback which is unacceptable to me.

[DanS26]

It is ironic to me that people on net metering plans either consciously or subconsciously know that the people who cannot afford a roof top solar system are in effect paying for those systems.

[bcroe]

I am not commenting on any other Net Metering plan, just mine. The power
I generate goes directly to my neighbors, not back to the power generation.
So there is not a big distribution cost involved. Yes there are transformers
and lines to maintain out there, they are always there, the idea is the connect
fee (that I pay) covers that. Not much is said about my local transformer, it is
always out there using some idle power. That was already true, not just when
I got solar. If these things are largely absorbed in the energy bill, then I have
already been subsidized by neighbors, who use way more than my 4900 kWh
per year, nobody ever criticizes my low usage, there is little difference from today.

As for the REMC plan, I do not participate, my understanding is it is about
getting credit for less carbon emissions, a different subject.

Yes the rich can afford to buy rooftop solar, perhaps it is as much about
feeling good as money and carbon for them. The Fed pays a rebate, that
incentive plan has nothing to do with net metering. There is no extra rebate
for building a ground mount, a far, far more expensive proposition, but the
only one with decent performance at this location. The motivation here is
proving I can completely avoid fossil fuel heating costs, including the ever
increasing CONNECT CHARGES. Avoiding the usual kWh charges is a
minor benefit. Money was never a motivation in this science project, but
with the increases seen lately, I probably will come out ahead some day.
Bruce Roe

[DanS26]

Bruce, just accept your good fortune and do not try to justify it.

As a thought experiment....if everyone in your cooperative put up a solar system and accepted the same net metering plan you have then you have to admit that the cooperative could not exist as a viable business organization. That little ~$30 connection fee could not support the organization....it's as simple as that. You cannot buy or trade kWh at retail rates and resell at the same amount, it is an unsustainable business plan.

The only point I'm trying to make is that at some point of uptake (i.e. participation rate) the corporative has to start charging the non-participants more per kWh to sustain the net metering scheme. If they don't then they have to change or adjust the scheme for the actual participants. One way or the other.

[J.P.M.]

Bruce, just accept your good fortune and do not try to justify it.

As a thought experiment....if everyone in your cooperative put up a solar system and accepted the same net metering plan you have then you have to admit that the cooperative could not exist as a viable business organization. That little ~$30 connection fee could not support the organization....it's as simple as that. You cannot buy or trade kWh at retail rates and resell at the same amount, it is an unsustainable business plan.

The only point I'm trying to make is that at some point of uptake (i.e. participation rate) the corporative has to start charging the non-participants more per kWh to sustain the net metering scheme. If they don't then they have to change or adjust the scheme for the actual participants. One way or the other.

In the case of coops what you write is probably closer to reality than with a for profit operation run as (part of) a corporation.
I've had a PV system for 10+ years and I've ridden th gravy train f CA NEM lie lots of others, but I've been ranting for as long as I've been posting around here(also for ~ 10+ years) that net metering (or close to it) as it's commonly interpreted is an unsustainable business model.
That is, how can a company (or a co-op, or any business entity for that matter) pay as much for a product or service as they sell it for ?
You can't buy something for the same price you sell it at and survive. That, to me, is a no brainer and always has been.

However, things are not that simple. As an example, I have two homes about 100 miles apart. The one in San Diego County (SDG & E) and has an average per kWh rate of ~ $0.52/kWh if I didn't have a PV system on NEM 1.0 for 10 more years (and I'm on tiered rates).
The other home is in La Quinta (out in the desert) and gets power from the Imperial Irrigation District ("IID") - a co-op.
That rate averages a total per kWh rate of ~ $0.21/kWhr. with a simple rate structure and hasn't changed in several years. Both utilities have net metering. The new NEM 3.0 w/SDG & E is similar to the way the IID's NEM has always worked except the IID pays what's probably closer to a true avoided cost for the power the PV user sends back to the grid.

Seems to me that co-op retail rates are always a good deal less that I.O.U. rates but the co-ops still seem to get net metering done.

To me, given the disparity in rates between I.O.U.s and co-ops as exemplified by my experience, the argument that PV users are the ones screwing the non-PV users seems like a red herring bunch of B.S.

Still, I've always been of the opinion that net metering would be more fair to all (POCOs and all users, PV owners and non PV owners alike) and make a lot more sense if the net metering only amounted to the POCO's TRUE avoided cost of the supplied power.
That is, the POCO, in effect buys distributed PV generated power from small users for the REAL aggregate price they pay (or their TRUE avoided cost for power when the power comes from other sources) and all users get charged the same for their use of the POCO's lines, infrastructure and administration.

I'm no fan of POCOs, but if I try to be objective about it, I think they have a point when they say they've that they've gotten the smelly end of the NEM stick, at least in CA.

[azdave]

It is ironic to me that people on net metering plans either consciously or subconsciously know that the people who cannot afford a roof top solar system are in effect paying for those systems.

Welcome to how the world works. My POCO practically begged me to install solar so they could meet their mandated RE goals. The incentives were enough to get me to sign a contract and I had saved for many years to invest in something that would pay off. It just happened to be solar at that time.

[Will792]

I just read an article stating the cost of solar in NY was about $4.3/watt and the US average was a little lower at $4.2/watt. I have run the numbers and at $2/watt it will still take me 10 to 12 years for a payback which is unacceptable to me.

I am somewhat surprised to see these numbers, even knowing that most solar installation companies spend 30-40% of revenue on marketing.

payback calculation is more difficult than it looks. Electricity rates tend to be more volatile lately and expected adoption of EVs increases value of PV production to the owners.

in my case I expected that it would take 4.5 years to get return on my PV equipment and permits costs (it was self install) but CT rate hikes shortened it to 3 years.

[SunEagle]

I am somewhat surprised to see these numbers, even knowing that most solar installation companies spend 30-40% of revenue on marketing.

payback calculation is more difficult than it looks. Electricity rates tend to be more volatile lately and expected adoption of EVs increases value of PV production to the owners.

in my case I expected that it would take 4.5 years to get return on my PV equipment and permits costs (it was self install) but CT rate hikes shortened it to 3 years.

Unfortunately I can get about $1000 per year from NET metering through my POCO using the calculator. And when I run the calculations it will still take at least 12 years at $0.12/kWh to get me money back for a 6000watt system installed at $2/watt and right now as well as the last 6 years my rate is below $0.09/kWh.

For me it just won't happen in my lifetime.

[bcroe]

payback calculation is more difficult than it looks. Electricity rates tend to be more volatile lately and expected adoption of EVs increases value of PV production to the owners.

That for those thinking of generating electricity. My power goes mostly
for heating a couple buildings here with heat pumps, I do not buy nat
gas, propane, or electricity. Bruce Roe

[J.P.M.]

Unfortunately I can get about $1000 per year from NET metering through my POCO using the calculator. And when I run the calculations it will still take at least 12 years at $0.12/kWh to get me money back for a 6000watt system installed at $2/watt and right now as well as the last 6 years my rate is below $0.09/kWh.

For me it just won't happen in my lifetime.

Possible solutions using treehugger logic to increase the probability of it happening in your lifetime:

1.) Move to a place with higher electricity rates.
2.) Change your lifestyle to increase your life expectancy by at least 12 years.
3.) A combination of 1 and 2 above.

4.) Or, maybe best of all...

Use "you could just" type B.S. logic to theorize a perpetual motion machine that violates the principle of entropy and all its consequences to generate cheap/free electricity for the great unwashed masses and bring it into a fantasy existence by getting a job an influencer (i.e. a conman).
Put the B.S. logic on the net and sell it to stupid people (of which there seems to be an exponentially increasing number if recent posts on this forum are any indication). Then, based on extrapolation of the increasing number of stupid people to the entire planet (and assuming lot of stupid people will buy into the bogus idea - at least those who can read), you can then either market the idea yourself or really make a killing by selling the idea to Elon Musk.
At that point, screw PV - you can retire to a place with cheap electricity rates using what has a large probability of showing a large profit from the ill-gotten booty - or stay where you are - with cheap rates - you lucky person.

Happy Holidays to all.


J.P.M.

[SunEagle]

Possible solutions using treehugger logic to increase the probability of it happening in your lifetime:

1.) Move to a place with higher electricity rates.
2.) Change your lifestyle to increase your life expectancy by at least 12 years.
3.) A combination of 1 and 2 above.

4.) Or, maybe best of all...

Use "you could just" type B.S. logic to theorize a perpetual motion machine that violates the principle of entropy and all its consequences to generate cheap/free electricity for the great unwashed masses and bring it into a fantasy existence by getting a job an influencer (i.e. a conman).
Put the B.S. logic on the net and sell it to stupid people (of which there seems to be an exponentially increasing number if recent posts on this forum are any indication). Then, based on extrapolation of the increasing number of stupid people to the entire planet (and assuming lot of stupid people will buy into the bogus idea - at least those who can read), you can then either market the idea yourself or really make a killing by selling the idea to Elon Musk.
At that point, screw PV - you can retire to a place with cheap electricity rates using what has a large probability of showing a large profit from the ill-gotten booty - or stay where you are - with cheap rates - you lucky person.

Happy Holidays to all.


J.P.M.

Thanks for the options. I think I will just stay here and maybe convince my kids to get solar some year.

Happy Holidays or Merry Christmas to all.