PV systems pricing dropping in 2023

[DanS26]

Well yeah...I purchased 36 panels in 2011, then another 36 panels in 2013 and then the final batch of 24 panels in 2017.

I have to over produce since I only get wholesale value for production sent onto the grid. If I had to pay somebody to erect my system I would never have seen a positive return.

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[SunEagle]

This was my experience with panel cost from 2011 to 2017.......

Purchased Panel Cost			Mfg.	Cost per Panel	Cost per Watt	Year Purchased	% Change	Overall Decline
Blue Array 235 watt panels			Kyocera	$ 393.32	$ 1.6737	2011	-
Black Array 245 watt panels			Kyocera	$ 281.75	$ 1.1500	2013	-31.29%
Shoulder Array 245 watt panels			Trina	$ 125.00	$ 0.5102	2017	-55.63%	-69.52%

Hopefully you didn't purchase panels back in 2011. I can see the hardware prices are coming down. But unless I plan on a DIY (and at 70 that won't happen) I am still seeing the labor costs go up.

[DanS26]

This was my experience with panel cost from 2011 to 2017.......

Purchased Panel Cost			Mfg.	Cost per Panel	Cost per Watt	Year Purchased	% Change	Overall Decline
Blue Array 235 watt panels			Kyocera	$ 393.32	$ 1.6737	2011	-
Black Array 245 watt panels			Kyocera	$ 281.75	$ 1.1500	2013	-31.29%
Shoulder Array 245 watt panels			Trina	$ 125.00	$ 0.5102	2017	-55.63%	-69.52%

[J.P.M.]

For the bare bones roof mount, I presume. My DIY ground mount cost
more than the panels on it. Bruce Roe

Yea Bruce, but don't forget to tell the uninitiated that you have the only residential array that possibly can be seen from low earth orbit.

Former poster Sensij did a DIY roof mount with quality materials (as I seem to remember) for about $1.09/installed STC W with all the bells and whistles including monitoring and a Davis Pro II Plus weather station.

[bcroe]

. For 9-10kW systems I'm now quoting around $1.50/W installed.

For the bare bones roof mount, I presume. My DIY ground mount cost
more than the panels on it. Bruce Roe

[SunEagle]

Prices continue to drop.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/12/19/p-type-perc-solar-modules-now-selling-in-europe-for-e0-10-w-to-e0-115-w/

I'm now able to buy Q-cells 480W panels in small quantities (less than a full pallet) for $144. Canadian pesos that is, as some of you Merkans like to say...

For 9-10kW systems I'm now quoting around $1.50/W installed.

Great so when are you coming to Florida for my install? LOL

[nerdralph]

Prices continue to drop.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/12/19/p-type-perc-solar-modules-now-selling-in-europe-for-e0-10-w-to-e0-115-w/

I'm now able to buy Q-cells 480W panels in small quantities (less than a full pallet) for $144. Canadian pesos that is, as some of you Merkans like to say...

For 9-10kW systems I'm now quoting around $1.50/W installed.

[SunEagle]

Possible solutions using treehugger logic to increase the probability of it happening in your lifetime:

1.) Move to a place with higher electricity rates.
2.) Change your lifestyle to increase your life expectancy by at least 12 years.
3.) A combination of 1 and 2 above.

4.) Or, maybe best of all...

Use "you could just" type B.S. logic to theorize a perpetual motion machine that violates the principle of entropy and all its consequences to generate cheap/free electricity for the great unwashed masses and bring it into a fantasy existence by getting a job an influencer (i.e. a conman).
Put the B.S. logic on the net and sell it to stupid people (of which there seems to be an exponentially increasing number if recent posts on this forum are any indication). Then, based on extrapolation of the increasing number of stupid people to the entire planet (and assuming lot of stupid people will buy into the bogus idea - at least those who can read), you can then either market the idea yourself or really make a killing by selling the idea to Elon Musk.
At that point, screw PV - you can retire to a place with cheap electricity rates using what has a large probability of showing a large profit from the ill-gotten booty - or stay where you are - with cheap rates - you lucky person.

Happy Holidays to all.


J.P.M.

Thanks for the options. I think I will just stay here and maybe convince my kids to get solar some year.

Happy Holidays or Merry Christmas to all.

[J.P.M.]

Unfortunately I can get about $1000 per year from NET metering through my POCO using the calculator. And when I run the calculations it will still take at least 12 years at $0.12/kWh to get me money back for a 6000watt system installed at $2/watt and right now as well as the last 6 years my rate is below $0.09/kWh.

For me it just won't happen in my lifetime.

Possible solutions using treehugger logic to increase the probability of it happening in your lifetime:

1.) Move to a place with higher electricity rates.
2.) Change your lifestyle to increase your life expectancy by at least 12 years.
3.) A combination of 1 and 2 above.

4.) Or, maybe best of all...

Use "you could just" type B.S. logic to theorize a perpetual motion machine that violates the principle of entropy and all its consequences to generate cheap/free electricity for the great unwashed masses and bring it into a fantasy existence by getting a job an influencer (i.e. a conman).
Put the B.S. logic on the net and sell it to stupid people (of which there seems to be an exponentially increasing number if recent posts on this forum are any indication). Then, based on extrapolation of the increasing number of stupid people to the entire planet (and assuming lot of stupid people will buy into the bogus idea - at least those who can read), you can then either market the idea yourself or really make a killing by selling the idea to Elon Musk.
At that point, screw PV - you can retire to a place with cheap electricity rates using what has a large probability of showing a large profit from the ill-gotten booty - or stay where you are - with cheap rates - you lucky person.

Happy Holidays to all.


J.P.M.

[bcroe]

payback calculation is more difficult than it looks. Electricity rates tend to be more volatile lately and expected adoption of EVs increases value of PV production to the owners.

That for those thinking of generating electricity. My power goes mostly
for heating a couple buildings here with heat pumps, I do not buy nat
gas, propane, or electricity. Bruce Roe

[SunEagle]

I am somewhat surprised to see these numbers, even knowing that most solar installation companies spend 30-40% of revenue on marketing.

payback calculation is more difficult than it looks. Electricity rates tend to be more volatile lately and expected adoption of EVs increases value of PV production to the owners.

in my case I expected that it would take 4.5 years to get return on my PV equipment and permits costs (it was self install) but CT rate hikes shortened it to 3 years.

Unfortunately I can get about $1000 per year from NET metering through my POCO using the calculator. And when I run the calculations it will still take at least 12 years at $0.12/kWh to get me money back for a 6000watt system installed at $2/watt and right now as well as the last 6 years my rate is below $0.09/kWh.

For me it just won't happen in my lifetime.

[Will792]

I just read an article stating the cost of solar in NY was about $4.3/watt and the US average was a little lower at $4.2/watt. I have run the numbers and at $2/watt it will still take me 10 to 12 years for a payback which is unacceptable to me.

I am somewhat surprised to see these numbers, even knowing that most solar installation companies spend 30-40% of revenue on marketing.

payback calculation is more difficult than it looks. Electricity rates tend to be more volatile lately and expected adoption of EVs increases value of PV production to the owners.

in my case I expected that it would take 4.5 years to get return on my PV equipment and permits costs (it was self install) but CT rate hikes shortened it to 3 years.

[azdave]

It is ironic to me that people on net metering plans either consciously or subconsciously know that the people who cannot afford a roof top solar system are in effect paying for those systems.

Welcome to how the world works. My POCO practically begged me to install solar so they could meet their mandated RE goals. The incentives were enough to get me to sign a contract and I had saved for many years to invest in something that would pay off. It just happened to be solar at that time.

[J.P.M.]

Bruce, just accept your good fortune and do not try to justify it.

As a thought experiment....if everyone in your cooperative put up a solar system and accepted the same net metering plan you have then you have to admit that the cooperative could not exist as a viable business organization. That little ~$30 connection fee could not support the organization....it's as simple as that. You cannot buy or trade kWh at retail rates and resell at the same amount, it is an unsustainable business plan.

The only point I'm trying to make is that at some point of uptake (i.e. participation rate) the corporative has to start charging the non-participants more per kWh to sustain the net metering scheme. If they don't then they have to change or adjust the scheme for the actual participants. One way or the other.

In the case of coops what you write is probably closer to reality than with a for profit operation run as (part of) a corporation.
I've had a PV system for 10+ years and I've ridden th gravy train f CA NEM lie lots of others, but I've been ranting for as long as I've been posting around here(also for ~ 10+ years) that net metering (or close to it) as it's commonly interpreted is an unsustainable business model.
That is, how can a company (or a co-op, or any business entity for that matter) pay as much for a product or service as they sell it for ?
You can't buy something for the same price you sell it at and survive. That, to me, is a no brainer and always has been.

However, things are not that simple. As an example, I have two homes about 100 miles apart. The one in San Diego County (SDG & E) and has an average per kWh rate of ~ $0.52/kWh if I didn't have a PV system on NEM 1.0 for 10 more years (and I'm on tiered rates).
The other home is in La Quinta (out in the desert) and gets power from the Imperial Irrigation District ("IID") - a co-op.
That rate averages a total per kWh rate of ~ $0.21/kWhr. with a simple rate structure and hasn't changed in several years. Both utilities have net metering. The new NEM 3.0 w/SDG & E is similar to the way the IID's NEM has always worked except the IID pays what's probably closer to a true avoided cost for the power the PV user sends back to the grid.

Seems to me that co-op retail rates are always a good deal less that I.O.U. rates but the co-ops still seem to get net metering done.

To me, given the disparity in rates between I.O.U.s and co-ops as exemplified by my experience, the argument that PV users are the ones screwing the non-PV users seems like a red herring bunch of B.S.

Still, I've always been of the opinion that net metering would be more fair to all (POCOs and all users, PV owners and non PV owners alike) and make a lot more sense if the net metering only amounted to the POCO's TRUE avoided cost of the supplied power.
That is, the POCO, in effect buys distributed PV generated power from small users for the REAL aggregate price they pay (or their TRUE avoided cost for power when the power comes from other sources) and all users get charged the same for their use of the POCO's lines, infrastructure and administration.

I'm no fan of POCOs, but if I try to be objective about it, I think they have a point when they say they've that they've gotten the smelly end of the NEM stick, at least in CA.

[DanS26]

Bruce, just accept your good fortune and do not try to justify it.

As a thought experiment....if everyone in your cooperative put up a solar system and accepted the same net metering plan you have then you have to admit that the cooperative could not exist as a viable business organization. That little ~$30 connection fee could not support the organization....it's as simple as that. You cannot buy or trade kWh at retail rates and resell at the same amount, it is an unsustainable business plan.

The only point I'm trying to make is that at some point of uptake (i.e. participation rate) the corporative has to start charging the non-participants more per kWh to sustain the net metering scheme. If they don't then they have to change or adjust the scheme for the actual participants. One way or the other.