PV systems pricing dropping in 2023

[bcroe]

I happen to think the IL net metering plan is best for the PoCo and me. I could
just be here using 5000KWh a year and paying the connect fee. They certainly
would not be happy supplying such a low quantity customer, though no one
would dare complain about my efficiency.

But instead I make enough solar KWh to completely avoid ALL charges of a gas
company connection, a lot of money. I still pay the PoCo connect charges. There
is no money exchanged for net metering, I just get to take back the energy when
I need it. So when peak demand hit in hot weather, I am powering all the AC units
on the block, saving the PoCo any transmission losses and helping to level the load.
I take back my credits at lower demand time, you could say also taking back the
transmission loss credit I previously saved them. IF I generate any surplus (I
generally do 5-10%), they get to keep it, and the losses I saved them, FOR FREE.

So I am generally helping the PoCo, they only lost the 5000Kh I used to use, and
without net metering, I would have further reduce that. Bruce Roe

[DanS26]

Here in Illinois with ComEd we are temporary fortunate. (their current business model for net metering is not sustainable). We currently get paid the same price selling KWs as we do buying KWs including distribution costs, and the current REC price is $82.28 per MWH.

Well you have a very good deal. I buy power at ~$0.13kwh and sell excess power at ~$0.055kwh. Ohio buys my SREC's at $2.50Mwh. I built my system DIY ground mount in 2011. Payback took 8.5 years. I purchased an EV in 2019 which greatly improved the system ROI since I consider the lower vehicle fuel cost to be a system benefit.

[Mike 134]

Totally agree....I should have mentioned my statement applies to Indiana and much of the Midwest. Net metering is rare and Net billing usually pays miserly. REC's almost non-existent.

Here in Illinois with ComEd we are temporary fortunate. (their current business model for net metering is not sustainable). We currently get paid the same price selling KWs as we do buying KWs including distribution costs, and the current REC price is $82.28 per MWH.

[DanS26]

Your payback statement is too general. Payback depends on initial cost, how much your utility pays importing and exporting KWHs, and if there are any REC programs you can take advantage of.

Totally agree....I should have mentioned my statement applies to Indiana and much of the Midwest. Net metering is rare and Net billing usually pays miserly. REC's almost non-existent.

[Mike 134]

Whenever I get into the DIY solar install discussion with interested people, I pull out my copy of the NFPA NEC code manual and explain that they have to follow certain code sections, etc. That's when their eyes glaze over and their thoughts of electric power savings get demolished.

There are a few hearty souls though that are undeterred and are willing to invest their time or someone else's expertise to get a maybe 8 to 10 year payback if ever, but they are few.

Your payback statement is too general. Payback depends on initial cost, how much your utility pays importing and exporting KWHs, and if there are any REC programs you can take advantage of.

[DanS26]

Whenever I get into the DIY solar install discussion with interested people, I pull out my copy of the NFPA NEC code manual and explain that they have to follow certain code sections, etc. That's when their eyes glaze over and their thoughts of electric power savings get demolished.

There are a few hearty souls though that are undeterred and are willing to invest their time or someone else's expertise to get a maybe 8 to 10 year payback if ever, but they are few.

[bcroe]

Fine, but the price of the 6061 weatherproof aluminum, electric wire, and
stainless steel metal and 18-8 bolts has something like tripled in the last
decade. Since those are the biggest costs of my ground mount, I do not
see savings. Bruce Roe

[SunEagle]

Wholesale panel prices in Canada are down to 36c/W. European wholesale prices are even lower, at around 77 Euros for 425W panels.
I expect the price drops to level off by next summer.

Inverter prices are still high, with 7.6 Growatt or Solis string inverters selling for about C$1400. With the semiconductor shortage over and significant capacity expansions ongoing, I expect inverter prices to drop by 20-30% over the next year.
https://taiyangnews.info/a-healthy-h...nverter-maker/

Great so hardware prices in Canada and Europe are coming down but here in the US I still think they are high and not good for the lower income society.

[nerdralph]

Wholesale panel prices in Canada are down to 36c/W. European wholesale prices are even lower, at around 77 Euros for 425W panels.
I expect the price drops to level off by next summer.

Inverter prices are still high, with 7.6 Growatt or Solis string inverters selling for about C$1400. With the semiconductor shortage over and significant capacity expansions ongoing, I expect inverter prices to drop by 20-30% over the next year.

https://taiyangnews.info/a-healthy-h1-2023-for-chinese-solar-inverter-maker/

[SunEagle]

I just looked at a wholesale website and modules prices are still averaging 50-55 cents per watt.

Even at that price the installation costs will be high and most people can't perform a DIY install due to lack of abilities or local codes. IMO solar is still a rich mans answer to provide self power in the US

[Mike 134]

I just looked at a wholesale website and modules prices are still averaging 50-55 cents per watt.

[nerdralph]

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the cost of PV systems is expected to drop dramatically by 2023.

Do you have a link for the NREL news release or publication you are referring to?

I couldn't find anything recent on their site. The phrase, "expected to drop dramatically by 2023" makes me think it is an old report, perhaps a few years old, and therefore no longer relevant.

[J.P.M.]

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the cost of PV systems is expected to drop dramatically by 2023. The decline reflects advances in technology and manufacturing that have made it possible for solar panel manufacturers to produce better quality products with lower costs. Solar panel prices have decreased by roughly 50% over the past decade and are projected to keep declining in the coming years, making PV systems a more affordable option than ever before. This cost reduction could make solar energy accessible to many households and businesses that have previously been unable or unwilling to invest in renewable energy solutions. By 2023, we could see a significant portion of the population taking advantage of this cost reduction and making their homes and businesses more sustainable.

Furthermore, with lower costs come greater incentives for adoption. Many states and cities have implemented incentive programs to encourage homeowners and businesses to make the switch to renewable energy solutions, such as solar panels. These incentive programs can make switching to solar an even more attractive option, with many offering generous rebates or tax credits. These incentives could have a significant impact on accelerating the adoption of renewable energy solutions across the nation.

At least part of any alleged cost reductions can probably be attributed to POCOs going after net metering in a more aggressive way making residential PV less cost effective. You sell to the market.

[Annlodge12]

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the cost of PV systems is expected to drop dramatically by 2023. The decline reflects advances in technology and manufacturing that have made it possible for solar panel manufacturers to produce better quality products with lower costs. Solar panel prices have decreased by roughly 50% over the past decade and are projected to keep declining in the coming years, making PV systems a more affordable option than ever before. This cost reduction could make solar energy accessible to many households and businesses that have previously been unable or unwilling to invest in renewable energy solutions. By 2023, we could see a significant portion of the population taking advantage of this cost reduction and making their homes and businesses more sustainable.

Furthermore, with lower costs come greater incentives for adoption. Many states and cities have implemented incentive programs to encourage homeowners and businesses to make the switch to renewable energy solutions, such as solar panels. These incentive programs can make switching to solar an even more attractive option, with many offering generous rebates or tax credits. These incentives could have a significant impact on accelerating the adoption of renewable energy solutions across the nation.

[nerdralph]

One of my suppliers dropped the price on 405W mono PERC panels to $166. That's Canadian dollars, so about USD 121. These are basic 19.8% efficiency panels. For 21% efficient all-black panels with 182mm cells, pricing is around $195.