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Things are looking up for 2023 because prices are going down. The semiconductor shortage is gradually easing, with stock of some power electronics and micro-controllers showing up in distributor inventories (like DigiKey and LCSC). Container shipping costs are 1/5th of what they were a year ago, and port delays have virtually disappeared. Shipping a 40HC container from Shanghai to Montreal now costs under US $5000 with an estimated transit time under 30 days. China polysilicon prices have dropped by a third in the last two weeks, with significant drops in wafer and cell prices too. I expect panel prices to drop by at least 10% in the next two months. I've written a blog post with more details.
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Today PVInsights is reporting the biggest weekly drop in 10 years for China polysilicon prices. M10/182mm wafer prices are down 50c from their high 6 months ago. That's a drop of $27 in the input costs for a 400W-class module (54 wafers). -
Good to hear the hardware cost less then before but unfortunately it is the labor cost being very high for professionally done installs. That is what puts solar out of the financial picture for meComment
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Here in Atlantic Canada, reliable (and sober) labor is about $40 per hour (30 USD). In 2022 I was quoting around 175c per W CAD for systems around 8 kW, before tax (15%), and excluding any government incentives, which can run from 30c to $1 per W. By March, I expect I'll be quoting around 160c per W.
Around here an unshaded 8 kW rooftop system will produce about 9,000 kWh per year.Comment
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No snow removal. Here's a price & production report for Nova Scotia from a few years ago.
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I ran the numbers for a 6kw system and it may save me $1000 per year using an electric rate of $0.12/kwh which is almost 2 cents above what I am spending. So doing the number even at $2/watt installed or $12k (which is way below what I keep getting for quotes) it will take about 12 years to pay for itself which is too long for meComment
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Good to hear the price is droppingComment
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I know the parts are becoming cheaper, but so it is with automobiles and other commodities. The issue isn't the parts getting cheaper, it's the reluctance of dealers to reduce their costs to consumers. It is expected for 2023 to be a very tough year financially across the globe, so there will be far less people buying, and dealers will have to deal with inventory and interest rates being high. But fewer buyers means tough times for installers, which will further the reluctance to reduce prices until they get to the breaking point.
Tesla was the big change in the industry a few years ago, gave the installers a run for their money by making systems far more affordable. Now that they have exited a large number of areas, I see the majority of solar installers taking advantage and going back to their inflated pricing models.
How inflated?
In 2019 - local company quoted me a 12kw string system, no batteries for $77k.
2021 - same company quoted a 16kw string system (no batteries) for $92k
2021 - Tesla quoted a 20.4kw string system with 4 PW2+ for $69k.
2022- Tesla exited my area, going to contractor. Pricing on Tesla's site for my house is now $101k
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That's crazy. I paid $22k USD for a 18kWp 13kWi APSystems DS3 microinverter no-storage grid-tied system and that includes rewiring the top half of my home with new db and transfer switch. Ordered direct from China and local certified installer installed with relevant approvals. Includes scaffolding to a 2nd storey roof.Comment
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The solar installers should be paid for the hazard work which IMO does justify the install price to go up.
But I have issues when someone is getting "high pay" and the box stores just install more self checkouts since they can't afford a lot of labor. It just equates to more people out of work.
It is a downward spiral where people can't get an income to survive and solar installs are becoming something only the rich can afford. We are headed in the wrong direction.Comment
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Where are you located ?
If in CA, know that there is a scramble to get installed or at least permitted by April 2023 before NEM 3.0 takes effect. That will cause prices to inflate.
A sharp price in SO. CA for a roof mount with no storage was ~ $3.00-3.50 US before NEM 3.0 deadlines became commonly known. It's turning into a bit of a wild west show now.Comment
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Residential PV has always been exclusionary for the working poor - at least in the U.S. anyway. That's one of the arguments the POCOs use to justify attacks on net metering.
Next time you fly, look out the window on landing approach and see how many solar roofs there are in poorer areas vs. the more affluent suburbs.
Kind of like the giveaway of gauging how relatively affluent countries are by the light pollution they give off.
Probably a useless comment but I wonder what the median net worth of readers and contributors to this forum might be.Comment
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