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  • #16
    Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
    $5500 for 13.5kwhr, so $407/kwhr for just the battery.


    Well that kWh price seems a little high to me to justify out of my pocket.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

      Well that kWh price seems a little high to me to justify out of my pocket.
      "... $5,500 for 13.5kwhr, so $407/kwhr for just the battery ..."

      I don't think $407/KWh is correct because the battery is rechargeable.
      You can use 80% of that 13.45 KWh every night for 10 years.

      $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years

      And Power Packs are cheaper per KWh, than Power Walls
      Last edited by NEOH; 12-01-2017, 07:20 PM.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by NEOH View Post

        "... $5,500 for 13.5kwhr, so $407/kwhr for just the battery ..."

        I don't think $407/KWh is correct because the battery is rechargeable.
        You can use 80% of that 13.45 KWh every night for 10 years.

        $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years

        And Power Packs are cheaper per KWh, than Power Walls
        The big question is can you really use that pack at 80% discharge every day for 10 years or is it really less? My guess is less and that will raise the cost per kWh up to much higher than $0.14.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

          The big question is can you really use that pack at 80% discharge every day for 10 years or is it really less? My guess is less and that will raise the cost per kWh up to much higher than $0.14.
          There is no "big question".
          Your "guess" is wrong.
          The cost per KW is not much higher than $0.14.

          $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by NEOH View Post

            There is no "big question".
            Your "guess" is wrong.
            The cost per KW is not much higher than $0.14.

            $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years
            All I am saying is lets find out in 5 years if that battery is still producing 80% of it's rated output daily. If not then the cost per kWh is higher then your estimation.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

              All I am saying is lets find out in 5 years if that battery is still producing 80% of it's rated output daily. If not then the cost per kWh is higher then your estimation.
              Who cares if it does or does not?
              If it does not then it will be replaced under Warranty.
              Either way, it does not change the Cost per KWHr.

              I am posting facts.
              You are posting opinion.

              $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by NEOH View Post

                Who cares if it does or does not?
                If it does not then it will be replaced under Warranty.
                Either way, it does not change the Cost per KWHr.

                I am posting facts.
                You are posting opinion.

                $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years
                I'd care. I expect some reasonable expectation that a product will meet claims made about it by the seller.

                As for facts, they often have a way of turning into opinion, interpretation, conjecture or wishful SWAGS.

                I'd suggest one other and perhaps more meaningful measure of a per kWh cost might be a life cycle cost per kWh of installed capacity, perhaps expressed in terms of LCOE. Such things are based on assumptions and therefore not fact, just (hopefully) informed opinion.

                As for facts, my lowest cost per kWh on my bill is currently $0.26769/kWh. That's a fact.

                $67,000,000 to build a 100 MW CH4 peaker and it's operating cost looks closer to opinion than fact.

                Whether or not Tesla or it's surviving entities, or it's batteries, or anyone else's will be around to honor a warranty, or if a product will survive 80 % cyclic discharge is a matter yet to be determined and therefore probably something many folks would not call fact.

                I see little difference between what you are posting here and opinion.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by NEOH View Post

                  Who cares if it does or does not?
                  If it does not then it will be replaced under Warranty.
                  Either way, it does not change the Cost per KWHr.

                  I am posting facts.
                  You are posting opinion.

                  $0.14/KWh = $5,500 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 10 Years
                  It is my opinion that things advertised to last X years that don't is really false advertising even if they are covered by a warranty. Which IMO would probably be pro rated so you will never get back exactly what you paid for in the first place.

                  If those batteries perform as stated for 10 years then it may be the first time any battery has done so but stranger things have happened.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Here's a tidbit about how the battery is doing in practice.

                    There's a big coal plant 600 miles away from the Tesla battery that seems to go offline now and then,
                    e.g. on 20 Nov (before tesla went online): reneweconomy.com.au/another-coal-unit-falls-over-leaving-victoria-power-supply-at-risk-10440/

                    When it went offline again last week, the Tesla battery responded within milliseconds with a few megawatts to help keep grid frequency up for a few seconds until other units could come online.
                    A small but useful contribution.
                    reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-outsmarts-lumbering-coal-units-after-loy-yang-trips-70003/
                    17kw. I like science, but I'm no expert.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                      It is my opinion that things advertised to last X years that don't is really false advertising even if they are covered by a warranty. Which IMO would probably be pro rated so you will never get back exactly what you paid for in the first place.

                      If those batteries perform as stated for 10 years then it may be the first time any battery has done so but stranger things have happened.
                      OK, so let's compute the Cost per KWh assuming ...
                      The battery bank only lasts 5 years with a 10 year pro-rated warranty
                      and you replace the battery every 5 years for the next 30 years

                      2017 = $5,500 Initial Cost
                      2022 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                      2027 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                      2032 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                      2037 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                      2042 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                      2047 = Fails & Stop Purchase

                      30 years of continuous service and a new battery pack every 5 years.
                      Total Cost = $19,250

                      $0.16/KWh = $19,250 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 30 Years

                      With enough time the Cost per KWh will approach $0.14 / KWh.
                      Most business and municipalities are in this for the long haul, not just the next 5 years.
                      Therefore, you do get what you pay for, even with a Pro-Rated Warranty.

                      Your opinion of "false advertisement" is completely unfounded, is simply a wild guess and is based on nothing but FUD.

                      What you fail to understand is ... this battery bank actually has a higher "internal" capacity than 13.5 KWh.
                      It is the under-voltage software that prevents you from ever using more than 13.5 KWh,
                      even though the battery bank is capable of providing more than 13.5 KWh.
                      As the Battery Bank ages ... the real "internal capacity" will decrease over time.
                      But because of this "hidden initial extra capacity" the battery bank can easily supply 13.5 KWh for the first 5 years.
                      After approximately 5 years ... the "internal capacity" will be down to about 13.5 KWh ( the usable capacity )
                      After 10 years ... the "internal capacity" will be down to 70% of the RATED 13.5 KWh capacity = End-Of-Life.
                      And that is how Tesla can have a 10 Year guarantee.

                      We always say, "The manufacture's warranty will indicate the expected life of the battery bank, not the cycle life graphs".
                      But now you think, this is no longer true but yet you provide no facts.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by NEOH View Post

                        OK, so let's compute the Cost per KWh assuming ...
                        The battery bank only lasts 5 years with a 10 year pro-rated warranty
                        and you replace the battery every 5 years for the next 30 years

                        2017 = $5,500 Initial Cost
                        2022 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                        2027 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                        2032 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                        2037 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                        2042 = $2,750 50% Pro-Rated
                        2047 = Fails & Stop Purchase

                        30 years of continuous service and a new battery pack every 5 years.
                        Total Cost = $19,250

                        $0.16/KWh = $19,250 / ( 80% x 13.5 KWh ) / 365 Days / 30 Years

                        With enough time the Cost per KWh will approach $0.14 / KWh.
                        Most business and municipalities are in this for the long haul, not just the next 5 years.
                        Therefore, you do get what you pay for, even with a Pro-Rated Warranty.

                        Your opinion of "false advertisement" is completely unfounded, is simply a wild guess and is based on nothing but FUD.

                        What you fail to understand is ... this battery bank actually has a higher "internal" capacity than 13.5 KWh.
                        It is the under-voltage software that prevents you from ever using more than 13.5 KWh,
                        even though the battery bank is capable of providing more than 13.5 KWh.
                        As the Battery Bank ages ... the real "internal capacity" will decrease over time.
                        But because of this "hidden initial extra capacity" the battery bank can easily supply 13.5 KWh for the first 5 years.
                        After approximately 5 years ... the "internal capacity" will be down to about 13.5 KWh ( the usable capacity )
                        After 10 years ... the "internal capacity" will be down to 70% of the RATED 13.5 KWh capacity = End-Of-Life.
                        And that is how Tesla can have a 10 Year guarantee.

                        We always say, "The manufacture's warranty will indicate the expected life of the battery bank, not the cycle life graphs".
                        But now you think, this is no longer true but yet you provide no facts.
                        Well you did the math and I have to admit it does make sense that a Li battery will be a good long term investment.

                        Maybe I am very skeptic of some things based on a number of my experiences with products advertising their "long life" and failing miserably.

                        It may be time that someone has done the work to build a better mouse trap. Time will tell but I hope you are right and I am wrong.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by NEOH View Post

                          OK, so let's compute the Cost per KWh assuming ...
                          The battery bank only lasts 5 years with a 10 year pro-rated warranty
                          and you replace the battery every 5 years for the next 30 years
                          Just one little problem. If a manufacture did that, they would be bankrupt. Musk is a professional Con Artist bilking the public for billions of dollars. Basically all of his businesses are another Enron waiting for the house of cards to collapse.
                          MSEE, PE

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Well it hasn't collapsed yet and a lot of people are wanting to buy one of his battery's down under, time will tell.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by solar pete View Post
                              Well it hasn't collapsed yet and a lot of people are wanting to buy one of his battery's down under, time will tell.
                              I am happy that the system "down under" is up and running but what other products that were supposed to be built and shipped by Tesla get delayed to make that big system work?

                              Sure who wouldn't want a battery system for their home. Just don't get in line and pay up front for a future battery that may or may not be available to you in the time that Tesla advertises.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The Telsla battery (10kW/hr) is being sold for 10K here installed, we are not selling them as they have formed some type of deal with a few large companies that do other things as well as solar. I heard the other day that the customers are being told that a boat load of batterys is due to arrive late Feb 18 and they should be getting installed in March.

                                We are advising the bulk of our clients to wait a bit as the prices for batterys should come down in the next couple of years, but even then some people want to be early adopters so we can get LG Chem batteries for those guys.

                                Hey Merry Christmas Solar Panel Talkers, thanks to everyone who puts their 2 cents in around the place it is very much appreciated, thank you. Have fun and stay safe through the festive season, CHEERS

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