Solar Edge Vs Enphase Power optimizers

[donald]

The commodity nature of solar seems to limit the upside for any single company. Considering the efficiency of inverters today, the future seems to be decreasing price. The reason larger electronics companies have not entered the market is likely the lack of opportunity for good returns.

[J.P.M.]

I'm thinking that now may be a good time to buy stock in enphase? the expected plummet in oil prices once the Iran deal is ratified will tank stocks in the energy sector, but I can't believe the long term outlook for solar is going to be anyting but continued growth.

Not if it goes belly up. I'd expect some consolidation if/after tax credits expire. That may be the future of Enphase, but it'll have the albatross of failure liability to reduce the selling price.

FWIW, I don't intend to return to R.E. stocks, etc. until at least early 2016. As far as continued growth, R.E. will find a niche that may ebb/flow w/ politics, other energy sources and however public opinion can be manipulated.

[kevcor620]

Look at solar stocks in general over the last few months. As goes oil, so goes solar.

I'm thinking that now may be a good time to buy stock in enphase? the expected plummet in oil prices once the Iran deal is ratified will tank stocks in the energy sector, but I can't believe the long term outlook for solar is going to be anyting but continued growth.

[NMB333]

I really fell for the SolarEdge design when it first came out and installed them almost exclusively for about 18 months until they started to drop like flies. Out of the 30 systems I've got out there (including one on my place), so far I've had 3 inverter failures (2 absolutely blow up inside), and about 20 Powerbox (they call them optimizers now) failures. Of course, these were the early product and we're in hot Arizona. They have redesigned everything and the new stuff is doing well - so far. I knew from the beginning the danger of SolarEdge being a startup company but took a chance on them anyway and got burned. I still use SolarEdge for jobs that have real shading problems but now that we have SunnyBoys with dual MPPT inputs, I rarely need to.

Thanks a lot for the information. I have been strongly considering a system with the SolarEdge 7600 inverter with their power optimizers for my home in San Diego.

[solarix]

I really fell for the SolarEdge design when it first came out and installed them almost exclusively for about 18 months until they started to drop like flies. Out of the 30 systems I've got out there (including one on my place), so far I've had 3 inverter failures (2 absolutely blow up inside), and about 20 Powerbox (they call them optimizers now) failures. Of course, these were the early product and we're in hot Arizona. They have redesigned everything and the new stuff is doing well - so far. I knew from the beginning the danger of SolarEdge being a startup company but took a chance on them anyway and got burned. I still use SolarEdge for jobs that have real shading problems but now that we have SunnyBoys with dual MPPT inputs, I rarely need to.

[NMB333]

I believe that Enphase's new product dispensed with the electrolytics, which is good because all their early stuff is doomed I say.
Don't get to carried away thinking SolarEdge is much better, we've seen a bad failure rate with them as well.

HOw bad is the failure rate that you have observed with the Solaredge?

[solarix]

Really, it's the electrolytic capacitors that ARE used in enphase micros and ONLY ceramic caps that are used in SE optimizers.

Electrolytic caps have a fluid in them that dries out with temperature and ceramic caps do not have anything that would dry out.

I believe that Enphase's new product dispensed with the electrolytics, which is good because all their early stuff is doomed I say.
Don't get to carried away thinking SolarEdge is much better, we've seen a bad failure rate with them as well.

[Pomonabill220]

old document but it might help some here:

http://www.solaredge.com/files/pdfs/technical_comparison_microinverters_power_optimizers-na.pdf

here is another more technical : http://www.solaredge.com/files/pdfs/...ethodology.pdf

Capacitors are the first thing to go in older electronics, SolarEdge optimizers don't use them.

Really, it's the electrolytic capacitors that ARE used in enphase micros and ONLY ceramic caps that are used in SE optimizers.

Electrolytic caps have a fluid in them that dries out with temperature and ceramic caps do not have anything that would dry out.

[thejq]

Investing in just about anything is a gamble even real estate is no longer solid.

Interestingly, real estate is the only place I'm comfortable holding long term esp in Coastal CA region where you can't build into the ocean and the weather is pleasant all year round. -- sorry I digress .

Personally I don't think getting solar is an investment where you expect the value to go up. To me it's a way to save money and doing something good to the environment.

As for ENPH, the longer they can't come up with their next generation of product (m250 was released in 2013!), the less faith I have in their sustainability. But I want them to succeed or at least survive to provide some alternatives to consumers to keep the prices competitive.

[SunEagle]

Generally in agreement. Comment was to trend of solar stocks generally in the same dir. as energy stocks and particularly oil. Trend buckers abound.

Investing in just about anything is a gamble even real estate is no longer solid.

Anyone want to buy some drums of black liquid and shiny gold metal bars?

[J.P.M.]

Since april, solar edge has moved from 20 to 27.

Enphase has gone from 13 to 4.5 in that period.

ENPH is a third of the price where it started the year. The likely reason is loss of faith in their fundamental technological position. I think the chance of enphase being around to honor their vast warranty liability is small.

Generally in agreement. Comment was to trend of solar stocks generally in the same dir. as energy stocks and particularly oil. Trend buckers abound.

[Willaby]

Consider why enphase now charges for access to single panel data.

Once a company offers "AC Batteries", the future isn't looking good. They probably can't even be acquired by another company. Who is going to want the warranty liability that comes with buying Enphase?

The stock is at $4.50, and there is no insider buying.

The future of microinverters is probably small installations only. Installer preference for microinverters is short sited. But I guess most installers won't be in business in five years anyways.

Looking at Enphase's most recent summary balance sheet, they have a single line called "Other Liabilities, Total" in the long term section. It is currently $49MM. It is growing ~$2MM/quarter, which is in the range of 2-2.5% of revenues. I would lay odds that this line is mostly or entirely attributed to the estimated warranty costs. It's in the long term section (more than one year), and it is 2-2.5% of revenues, which I think is rational and would satisfy their audit firm. I little digging beyond my quick look would probably say for sure.

At $4.50, down from $15, Enphase is getting pinched by SEDG's momentum, warranty concerns, sun setting of the great solar deals, lack of profits, news of battery incompatibility and the general market condition. That's a LOT of negativity.

[donald]

Consider why enphase now charges for access to single panel data.

Once a company offers "AC Batteries", the future isn't looking good. They probably can't even be acquired by another company. Who is going to want the warranty liability that comes with buying Enphase?

The stock is at $4.50, and there is no insider buying.

The future of microinverters is probably small installations only. Installer preference for microinverters is short sited. But I guess most installers won't be in business in five years anyways.

[paul65k]

Yikes! So no monitoring for self installs? Really? If that's true I won't bother with Enphase.....

Self Installer here.....Enphase monitoring to the panel/microinverter level here.......and a new one going on for my friend next month still with panel monitoring.....

[donald]

Look at solar stocks in general over the last few months. As goes oil, so goes solar.

Since april, solar edge has moved from 20 to 27.

Enphase has gone from 13 to 4.5 in that period.

ENPH is a third of the price where it started the year. The likely reason is loss of faith in their fundamental technological position. I think the chance of enphase being around to honor their vast warranty liability is small.