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  • sensij
    Solar Fanatic
    • Sep 2014
    • 5074

    Originally posted by control4userguy
    You're kidding? Alisobob has the baddest system in SoCal and he oversized...
    I don't know, do I need to use emoticons to communicate in this thread? Others have pointed some of this out, but let's recap:

    1) If the system is sized for 100% offset, the expected NET consumption at the end of the year is approximately 0. By the estimates shared earlier in the thread, 100% offset *will* be achieved, since kWh credits generated during this time of year through spring will be consumed in the summer by A/C and other cooling loads. If that is true, then the rate plan truly doesn't matter, there are no "savings" left to be had.

    2) For TOU to make sense, the PV system needs to be small enough that it is unable to produce enough kWh to cover the full year's consumption. If this is true, there is at least the possibility that a TOU $ credit could come out ahead of a straight kWh offset.

    3) Any TOU plan with 2-8 pm peak period is unlikely to be net negative during the peak period, if A/C represents a big portion of the load. That rules out the -A and -B plans. The -D plan is still 12-6 pm, so there is a chance that it will come out ahead. The on-peak credit for wintertime generation is 0.22 / KWh. The credit will get consumed at at 0.34 / kWh in the summer. Therefore, 100 kWh of peak generation in winter is only worth 65 hours of peak consumption in summer. If the customer is not net negative in peak periods during summer, that credit gets eaten up fast, before off-peak loads get covered.

    In other words, the window in which TOU makes sense is narrow... in general terms, the system needs to be big enough that consumption is net negative during summer peak, but small enough that consumption is net positive for the year. I don't think enough information has been shared to know for sure whether this sytem would benefit under that plan or not. I would be skeptical that the SCE customer service agent on the phone is running the generation estimates and consumption calculations tightly enough to make a thoughtful recommendation either way.
    CS6P-260P/SE3000 - http://tiny.cc/ed5ozx

    Comment

    • Alisobob
      Banned
      • Sep 2014
      • 605

      Originally posted by sensij
      I would be skeptical that the SCE customer service agent on the phone is running the generation estimates and consumption calculations tightly enough to make a thoughtful recommendation either way.
      Agreed....

      It seems insane that here in the 21st century.... with all this computing power... that with a few simple clicks of the mouse, SCE cannot give you the outcome or a few different scenarios.

      Comment

      • J.P.M.
        Solar Fanatic
        • Aug 2013
        • 14926

        Originally posted by Alisobob
        Agreed....

        It seems insane that here in the 21st century.... with all this computing power... that with a few simple clicks of the mouse, SCE cannot give you the outcome or a few different scenarios.
        It is not in the POCO's interest to provide any more information nor to make it more user friendly than is legally required. They have nothing to gain by educating the customer or making self education easier.

        Comment

        • josefontao
          Solar Fanatic
          • Jan 2015
          • 111

          Originally posted by Alisobob
          Agreed....

          It seems insane that here in the 21st century.... with all this computing power... that with a few simple clicks of the mouse, SCE cannot give you the outcome or a few different scenarios.
          Its not in their interest.
          ---
          [url]http://bit.ly/1O69e6l[/url]

          Comment

          • Alisobob
            Banned
            • Sep 2014
            • 605

            solar51.JPG

            So, I just had me best generation week ever.... YAY!!!

            But this brings up a question to me?? It has to do with the REAL price per watt.

            Follow my reasoning..

            When gasoline octane is rated... its the "Research" octane rating , plus, the "Motor " octane rating added together, divided bu two.

            15-0700.jpg

            Now, with solar... everyone is consumed by the "Price per watt" stat.... but thats only nameplate pricing. It has nothing to do with generation or savings.

            The East coast has cheaper installed pricing, and better rebates, but their systems under produce due to the weather.

            West cost systems seem more expensive to install, have less rebates, but perform better due to the weather.

            Should the "Price per watt" thread be changed to factor this in, much like the octane rating does??

            It should be Dollar per Watt nameplate... plus... Dollar per watt generated ( from a PV Watts calculation) divided by two.

            This would be more accurate...

            Yes??

            No??

            Thoughts??

            Comment

            • sensij
              Solar Fanatic
              • Sep 2014
              • 5074

              In addition to the factors you listed, shade can be one of the bigger factors that affect actual system output, and it can be difficult to predict accurately. Simple price per nameplate watt isolates what interests most of us the most when comparing installers, since it is looking at just the cost of equipment and the installation itself. A cost-effectiveness metric would be interesting, something like a simple year 0 only LCOE calculation, but is (based on the content of this, and other threads) unlikely to catch on.
              CS6P-260P/SE3000 - http://tiny.cc/ed5ozx

              Comment

              • josefontao
                Solar Fanatic
                • Jan 2015
                • 111

                You guys lost me

                On another note, you gotta be over-producing with those numbers, Bob.
                ---
                [url]http://bit.ly/1O69e6l[/url]

                Comment

                • bcroe
                  Solar Fanatic
                  • Jan 2012
                  • 5199

                  Originally posted by Alisobob
                  So, I just had me best generation week ever.... YAY!!!
                  Here I see an abrupt improvement in Feb, with a combination of longer days and far
                  less clouds. The increased generation trend will probably continue through June.

                  Some of us think there is no such thing as over producing. Bruce Roe

                  Comment

                  • Alisobob
                    Banned
                    • Sep 2014
                    • 605

                    Originally posted by josefontao
                    You guys lost me

                    On another note, you gotta be over-producing with those numbers, Bob.
                    Slightly...

                    solar52.JPG

                    For last month, I overproduced about 2 kwh's per day, and was credited $8 towards summer.

                    The $1.71 bill was for taxes, and line usage.

                    My 3 year running average for a January SCE bill was $238.

                    I happy with how its going..

                    Comment

                    • Alisobob
                      Banned
                      • Sep 2014
                      • 605

                      Originally posted by bcroe
                      Here I see an abrupt improvement in Feb, with a combination of longer days and far
                      less clouds. . Bruce Roe

                      Comment

                      • J.P.M.
                        Solar Fanatic
                        • Aug 2013
                        • 14926

                        Sort of tailing on to Sensij's comments in post #310:

                        Total system initial cost (or something like yr. zero LCOE) vs. expected 1st yr. savings may be of some use to see how cost effectiveness decreases as the system size increases, but that implies that a lot of things that may need to be considered like the cost of funds, rate increases, increased/decreased use, useful life etc are ignored.

                        Such calculations may also be good to compare one system vs. another as in the case of a 5 kW Sunpower system having about the same annual output as a 5kW LG system but costing ~ 25% more up front.

                        Such comparisons however do not consider the long term costs, benefits/downsides of solar electric system ownership. In the long(er) term, some things can become more economically viable - maybe. The drawbacks to such thinking are more work, usually more education about process economics, and a greater dependence on estimates (or the probability of those estimates being reasonably accurate) of conditions extant in an uncertain future. Some feel some risk for greater return is worth it. Some not.

                        NY state has a rather generous rebate/incentive program compared to CA at this time. I'd wager that down at the bottom line, system ownership cost vs. savings is about equal in either state both long and short term - as Aliso Bob notes, one area may have better rebates, the other has more sun.

                        As an anecdote, my old neighborhood in Buffalo hasn't seen any significant sun for a week and probably won't for at least another 7 days - a common winter weather pattern, with expected highs in the single digits (F.) next week. Here in zip 92026, as similar to Aliso Bob, Ive been pretty cloudless for at least the last week w/ temps in the 70's - low 80's with the same forecast for the next week or so. Pay your money - take your choice.

                        Comment

                        • Alisobob
                          Banned
                          • Sep 2014
                          • 605

                          einstein.jpeg

                          "Class.... this theorem of dollars per watt explains why I purchased instead of leased..."

                          Comment

                          • J.P.M.
                            Solar Fanatic
                            • Aug 2013
                            • 14926

                            Originally posted by Alisobob
                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]5801[/ATTACH]

                            "Class.... this theorem of dollars per watt explains why I purchased instead of leased..."
                            Take what you want/need. Scrap the rest.

                            Comment

                            • Alisobob
                              Banned
                              • Sep 2014
                              • 605

                              OftheSeven asked me a question, but I cant reply with a photo in a message, so I'm replying here.'

                              He wanted to know how a south facing roof performs after 3pm, due to shading issues.

                              37 kwh.JPG

                              I had my BEST day ever on Tues, 37 KWH's.

                              You can see, the bulk of the power is made before 3 pm, with the power falling off pretty quick and finishing at 5pm.

                              In those last 2 hours, it looks like roughly 2 KWH's are produced. So it would have been a 35 KWH day with 3 pm shading issues?

                              I hope this answers your question!

                              Bob

                              Comment

                              • silversaver
                                Solar Fanatic
                                • Jul 2013
                                • 1390

                                Originally posted by Alisobob
                                OftheSeven asked me a question, but I cant reply with a photo in a message, so I'm replying here.'

                                He wanted to know how a south facing roof performs after 3pm, due to shading issues.

                                [ATTACH=CONFIG]5907[/ATTACH]

                                I had my BEST day ever on Tues, 37 KWH's.

                                You can see, the bulk of the power is made before 3 pm, with the power falling off pretty quick and finishing at 5pm.

                                In those last 2 hours, it looks like roughly 2 KWH's are produced. So it would have been a 35 KWH day with 3 pm shading issues?

                                I hope this answers your question!

                                Bob
                                That is an awesome output. Base on Enphase white paper that undersize inverter yield higher overall production. I understand you have 24 M215 microinverters pairing with 270W panel. I was wondering what would be your max instantaneous output? 230W AC X 24?

                                Comment

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