PV systems pricing dropping in 2023

[SunEagle]

Here in Atlantic Canada, reliable (and sober) labor is about $40 per hour (30 USD). In 2022 I was quoting around 175c per W CAD for systems around 8 kW, before tax (15%), and excluding any government incentives, which can run from 30c to $1 per W. By March, I expect I'll be quoting around 160c per W.

Around here an unshaded 8 kW rooftop system will produce about 9,000 kWh per year.

I ran the numbers for a 6kw system and it may save me $1000 per year using an electric rate of $0.12/kwh which is almost 2 cents above what I am spending. So doing the number even at $2/watt installed or $12k (which is way below what I keep getting for quotes) it will take about 12 years to pay for itself which is too long for me

[nerdralph]

Is that with snow removal, or leaving it alone all winter? Bruce Roe

No snow removal. Here's a price & production report for Nova Scotia from a few years ago.

http://solarns.ca/sites/solarns.ca/files/2018-10/NS_Solar_Price_report_2018.pdf

[bcroe]

Around here an unshaded 8 kW rooftop system
will produce about 9,000 kWh per year.

Is that with snow removal, or leaving it alone all winter? Bruce Roe

[nerdralph]

Good to hear the hardware cost less then before but unfortunately it is the labor cost being very high for professionally done installs. That is what puts solar out of the financial picture for me

Here in Atlantic Canada, reliable (and sober) labor is about $40 per hour (30 USD). In 2022 I was quoting around 175c per W CAD for systems around 8 kW, before tax (15%), and excluding any government incentives, which can run from 30c to $1 per W. By March, I expect I'll be quoting around 160c per W.

Around here an unshaded 8 kW rooftop system will produce about 9,000 kWh per year.

[SunEagle]

Good to hear the hardware cost less then before but unfortunately it is the labor cost being very high for professionally done installs. That is what puts solar out of the financial picture for me

[nerdralph]

Today PVInsights is reporting the biggest weekly drop in 10 years for China polysilicon prices. M10/182mm wafer prices are down 50c from their high 6 months ago. That's a drop of $27 in the input costs for a 400W-class module (54 wafers).

[nerdralph]

Things are looking up for 2023 because prices are going down. The semiconductor shortage is gradually easing, with stock of some power electronics and micro-controllers showing up in distributor inventories (like DigiKey and LCSC). Container shipping costs are 1/5th of what they were a year ago, and port delays have virtually disappeared. Shipping a 40HC container from Shanghai to Montreal now costs under US $5000 with an estimated transit time under 30 days. China polysilicon prices have dropped by a third in the last two weeks, with significant drops in wafer and cell prices too. I expect panel prices to drop by at least 10% in the next two months. I've written a blog post with more details.

http://ecoralph.blogspot.com/2022/12/solar-pv-costs-should-drop-in-2023.html