Is the Solar Industry in Germany Losing Its Shine

[Ian S]

It is a shame that some people can't be convinced without a list of scientific data instead of accepting facts from a Joe Blow.

My credentials. During the mid 70's at the University of Delaware I was involved with doing research on Cadmium Sulfide solar cells and ended up co-publishing a paper with the National Science Foundation concerning sheet resistivity with respect to cell efficiency. I currently am involved with a project concerning a 1.12 megawatt solar pv array system in Nevada.

For the last 38 years I have been and Electrical Engineer doing power distribution designs for all different type of Manufacturing plants and municipal Sewage and Water treatment plants. I have been a Project Engineer for multimillion capital projects involving data centers, roof shingle, steel castings and juice manufacturing plants. I was a Manager for 5 years over 25 Electricians that maintained a plants 4160volt power distribution system.

I have worked with dozens of Utilities supplying power to these plants ranging in voltages from the 5000 to 15000 range. Along the way I have developed strong relations with Utility Generating Plant Managers and Directors. That includes smaller 6 megawatt co-generating facilities.

In short I understand what is required to keep the lights on. So if you chose not to believe me when I tell you something then that is your choice and maybe your loss.

Well, then you are the perfect person to explain it to us ordinary folks! And don't worry about getting technical, I have a PhD in engineering so I'm sure I'll be able to understand it once an expert such as yourself explains it all.

[DanS26]

A unit of energy whether a watt, a BTU or any other other measure has a cost of production. That cost of production can be compared to all sources. Over time the unit of energy with the lowest cost of production will have a competitive advantage.

I produce the equivalent energy in watts to a gallon of gasoline at $2.70 per gallon and that production is locked in for the next 25 years. What do you think a gallon of gasoline will cost twenty years from today?

Granted my cost of production is low since I installed the production equipment myself. But the handwriting is on the wall.

The mainstream utility companies are in a box. Raise rates and their competitive advantage (ie economies of scale) will disappear. Most automotive companies have done this analysis and now are in a rush to produce vehicles to use the fuel with the lowest cost of production.

[Ian S]

Contact FERC and your state energy commission for details. They have complete answers. small solar grid tied is not regulated while large solar generators are. There is more to it than a watt for watt standby as they state.

http://www.ferc.gov/industries/elect...tion-renew.asp

Thank you for that. I'm studying the papers now but so far no luck in finding where it says let alone explains that for every watt of solar added to the grid, a newly built watt of conventional generation will have to be added as well. I'll keep looking though.

[SunEagle]

Well, then you are the perfect person to explain it to us ordinary folks! And don't worry about getting technical, I have a PhD in engineering so I'm sure I'll be able to understand it once an expert such as yourself explains it all.

Then you should be able to understand that unless you have a way to store a lot of energy to be used during the night or wind and sunless days you will always needs to match temporary generating energy with consistent generating energy watt for watt.

By the way having a PhD in engineering may convince some people that all engineers are the same and know everything there is. That is like saying all Doctors are the same. So if you ever need a brain surgeon I wouldn't go to a proctologist. He is an expert on the other end of the body.

[Sunking]

Thank you for that. I'm studying the papers now but so far no luck in finding where it says let alone explains that for every watt of solar added to the grid, a newly built watt of conventional generation will have to be added as well. I'll keep looking though.

OK it is simple. Utility generators especially in AZ are operating at maximum capacity in order to supply So Cal. California with their energy policy forces them to rely on imports from other states. They got themselves in a jam when they decided to quit building conventional power plants.

OK back to Arizona or really any utility. They are operating dangerously close to maximum capacity, even when supplemented by Solar during the day. When the clouds roll in or wind dies, th eRE sources fall off th ecliff and are gone. That missing power has to come from somewhere. In order to make that happen you have to have conventional power sources standing by to be brought on line instantly at a moments notice. You cannot do that with your conventional plants already operating at maximum capacity. AZ saving grace is they can and have cut off So Cal and forced them to take rolling blackouts. Conventional power plants cannot be turned on and off like a light switch. It can take hours to bring up a NG plant a day to bring up a coal plant, or days to bring up a nuke plant. That means they have to be fired up waiting in hot standby ready to go to pick up the load.

The notion that we are running out of fuel is just plain silly. We have about 10 million years worth of dirt cheap fuel just laying around waiting to be picked up and used. If we run out Australia has another 5 billion years of fuel and they do not use it either. They ship it out to China, Russia, France and Japan.

[Ian S]

Then you should be able to understand that unless you have a way to store a lot of energy to be used during the night or wind and sunless days you will always needs to match temporary generating energy with consistent generating energy watt for watt.

By the way having a PhD in engineering may convince some people that all engineers are the same and know everything there is. That is like saying all Doctors are the same. So if you ever need a brain surgeon I wouldn't go to a proctologist. He is an expert on the other end of the body.

Of course that's true but like doctors, who have quite a bit of training in common, so do we engineers. Plus I like to think we also have good problem solving skills utilizing logic and reason to get results.

In regard to backup generating capacity, yes, I can see that is needed for time when the sun isn't shining. My contention is though that such capacity already exists when a solar system goes online. It may have to be retained at least in part but why on earth would you have to build out new capacity especially on a full watt for watt basis?

[Sunking]

Of course that's true but like doctors, who have quite a bit of training in common, so do we engineers. Plus I like to think we also have good problem solving skills utilizing logic and reason to get results.

In regard to backup generating capacity, yes, I can see that is needed for time when the sun isn't shining. My contention is though that such capacity already exists when a solar system goes online. It may have to be retained at least in part but why on earth would you have to build out new capacity especially on a full watt for watt basis?

I already covered this, plants are operating at full capacity. Any excess AZ has goes to CA. I am one of those engineers you are talking about. The battery issue has existed for over 100 years now. In that time very little improvement has been made. It took 120 years to go from 60 wh/Kg to 110 wh/Kg. That is no where close to where we need to be.

Battery tech needs to be around 400 wh/Kg, Temperature stable without significant capacity loss in cold temps, 80% DOD without degration, 10,000 cycles, 5C charge/discharge rate and 20-cents per wh initial cost. Not even remotely close to any of those parameters except cost which is down to about 60-cent per wh for lithium and 15 cents for lead acid.

[SunEagle]

Of course that's true but like doctors, who have quite a bit of training in common, so do we engineers. Plus I like to think we also have good problem solving skills utilizing logic and reason to get results.

In regard to backup generating capacity, yes, I can see that is needed for time when the sun isn't shining. My contention is though that such capacity already exists when a solar system goes online. It may have to be retained at least in part but why on earth would you have to build out new capacity especially on a full watt for watt basis?

There may be some areas that still have a lot of spare generating capacity but other areas do not so they end up purchasing this energy from other states and Utilities. Eventually the grid will not be able to "wheel" the energy needed from one state to another which will result in shortages to cover the power needed at night.

The Utilities know how much spare capacity they have but they also don't have the ability to quickly build another plant so they reduce the times that some plants are down for maintenance. This is a gamble which if they lose may cause shutdowns due to equipment failures from the lack of maintenance.

The best way for the Utilities to provide power when needed is to increase their generating capabilities. They have to stay ahead of the curve so they track new PV installations and try to time their new plants to be on line before the PV systems catch them.

[bonaire]

What do the POCOs do when a new house is connected to the grid but does not yet have residents inside using power? Do they put 4kw of base load online in case the house sells tomorrow? What if a homeowner puts in a pool with power hungry pump? Regulation includes demand prediction and demand response on a daily basis. Demand response includes peaker-plants, voltage regulation and frequency adjustment and other stuff. I have been told by people connected to the pa power regulatory committee that nobody added 8kw to the grid when my system went in. Regulators will pay close attention to the 7.2MW array that will be built in my town this year, of course. The state and local POCO do know how many arrays are in their area but I highly doubt that they put the nameplate peak wattage generation online in reserve. We all know that nameplate wattage is only available mid day and has many efficiency losses from solar panel to grid interconnect.

Someone somewhere working for a commission has the right answers on this. But it surely is not watt for watt but rather some type of planned regulation adjustment based on demand.

If you guys are so adamant about this watt for watt statement, why can't someone just produce a link to a web site with the information?

[russ]

Ian - When the sun does not shine you still demand power right? The grid has to have the generating capacity to supply it - even if you don't often use it. The crowd with solar being better off than the average citizen would be the first to cry if power wasn't there on demand.

I also agree with Bonaire - It will never be watt for watt but at some ratio.

[SunEagle]

What do the POCOs do when a new house is connected to the grid but does not yet have residents inside using power? Do they put 4kw of base load online in case the house sells tomorrow? What if a homeowner puts in a pool with power hungry pump? Regulation includes demand prediction and demand response on a daily basis. Demand response includes peaker-plants, voltage regulation and frequency adjustment and other stuff. I have been told by people connected to the pa power regulatory committee that nobody added 8kw to the grid when my system went in. Regulators will pay close attention to the 7.2MW array that will be built in my town this year, of course. The state and local POCO do know how many arrays are in their area but I highly doubt that they put the nameplate peak wattage generation online in reserve. We all know that nameplate wattage is only available mid day and has many efficiency losses from solar panel to grid interconnect.

Someone somewhere working for a commission has the right answers on this. But it surely is not watt for watt but rather some type of planned regulation adjustment based on demand.

If you guys are so adamant about this watt for watt statement, why can't someone just produce a link to a web site with the information?

Why do you need a link to a website that you feel will give you the "truth" when it comes to this?

The "watt for watt" is just common sense. What ever amount of watts are generated by pv during the day needs to be backed up in case the sun don't shine. If the Utility doesn't have those watts to send out due to all type of reasons they buy it from other generating plants that have the capacity. This plan usually works most of the time but when the other Utility needs that power for themselves the Utility without the generating capacity goes without.

I lived through this type of event in December of 1989. Due to generating plants being down for maintenance and a very strong cold snap up North forced the Georgia Utilities to turn off the power going to Florida. On Christmas day we had rolling black outs. For every hour we had 15 minutes of no power.

That was before solar got going. So the citation is worse. If a Utility that plans on purchasing power from another state can't then someone will get their lights turned off. They need to have the ability of having a watt of generation for every watt of pv just to be safe.

[bonaire]

I see, but you are citing opinion. I read FERC documents, the organization that oversees all of this and there is no watt for watt information. I can't take your and Sunking's opinion as truth. Currently, it is only specious argumentation. I have been told by someone who has worked for the grid generators of PA here that watt for watt is incorrect. Guy has 30 years experience in the industry working for Three Mile Island and Peach Bottom.

[Ian S]

Ian - When the sun does not shine you still demand power right? The grid has to have the generating capacity to supply it - even if you don't often use it. The crowd with solar being better off than the average citizen would be the first to cry if power wasn't there on demand.

Of course the grid has to have the capacity to supply power when the sun isn't shining. But it had enough to supply my needs the day before I installed solar and the exact same capacity the day after I installed the solar and stopped using as much from the grid. Why do they have to build NEW capacity watt for watt for my solar install? I understand that they can't get rid of peaker capacity watt for watt for my solar but adding more over and above what they had before I reduced my usage - just don't see it.

[SunEagle]

I see, but you are citing opinion. I read FERC documents, the organization that oversees all of this and there is no watt for watt information. I can't tae your and Sunking's opinion as truth. Currently, it is only specious argumentation.

Why would I lie to you? I am for solar energy and continue to work toward having more available including the missing link of an energy storage system.

But until then if Utilities are not building or planing to build new generating facilities to backup the pv systems they are relying on getting the power from other Utilities that will be happy to sell them energy at a profit.

For every watt of solar pv there must be a watt of consistent power somewhere to keep the lights on. It may come from a Utilities spare capacity or from another Utilities spare capacity but it is still one watt for one watt. Why is that so hard to understand?

[SunEagle]

I see, but you are citing opinion. I read FERC documents, the organization that oversees all of this and there is no watt for watt information. I can't take your and Sunking's opinion as truth. Currently, it is only specious argumentation. I have been told by someone who has worked for the grid generators of PA here that watt for watt is incorrect. Guy has 30 years experience in the industry working for Three Mile Island and Peach Bottom.

I am open to listening and learning about someone else understanding of the subject.

If it is not one watt for one watt, did he give you his answer as to how much it is and why he felt this way?