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  • #16
    Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

    I agree that a large POCO can probably get power pretty cheap from a "co-generator" if they do not have contracts with guaranteed sales. Due to the deregulation a while ago the price of a kWh changes like the weather. But the payback seems to be locked into some long term conditions which lets the POCO's make money or loss money depending on what is available to purchase.

    Adding in the cost of environmental or health related issues is a moving target due to how individuals are affected by what they breath and drink. Of course being overheated due the lack of power certainly has gotten some headlines here in Florida and solar would not have saved any of the people that died in the nursing home.

    Last tidbit. Did anyone see the pictures of that large solar array down in Puerto Rico? Basically is has been trashed due to high winds and probably will be out of commission for months. So while I am a supporter of solar I still think a weather hardened power generator is a smart way to keep the lights on.
    SDG & E generates zero power or close to it of its own power, buying almost all of what is expected to be most base load and forecast use via contract, and meeting loads from variable events like weather, etc. on the spot market. That spot price is what, not surprisingly, shows the most variation and probably highest prices, and, historically, most of the reason why the claimed large variation in tier rates was instigated in the first place. That disparity was either the primary reason or the red herring, or the forcing function for most all of the AB 327 shenanigans that led to CA I.O.U. rate reform that we are all learning to know and love today and into the future.

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    • #17
      What will be ironic is when Suniva and SunPower still go out of business even after they get tariffs added. Mismanagement won't be fixed by tariffs.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by DrLumen View Post
        What will be ironic is when Suniva and SunPower still go out of business even after they get tariffs added. Mismanagement won't be fixed by tariffs.
        Agreed, but tariffs have always been the friend of incompetence. Tariffs will allow any incompetence, on either side of the trade barrier to continue longer than without the tariffs. Bad for progress.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
          In addition, and a slightly different topic, how illogical is it to put a tariff in a product that raises its price and then, offer a tax credit that offsets part of that very same tariff caused price increase ?
          Not illogical at all if you are a politician.

          "See? I am supporting American jobs with this simple tariff! Jobs jobs jobs!"
          "See? I am supporting renewable energy with this tax credit! Cleaner energy!"

          Two birds with one stone.

          I am reminded of an example from about a decade ago concerning two programs from the FDA.

          The first was (effectively) a dairy subsidy; the government was looking for ways to increase consumption of milk to help out farmers. So they worked with a few pizza places and the "cheesy crust" was born - a way to sell a lot more cheese per pizza.

          At the same time, another group was responsible for coming up with nutritional guidelines. Their advice - eat less meat and dairy.

          Good for re-election campaigns if nothing else.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
            Not illogical at all if you are a politician.

            "See? I am supporting American jobs with this simple tariff! Jobs jobs jobs!"
            "See? I am supporting renewable energy with this tax credit! Cleaner energy!"

            Two birds with one stone.

            I am reminded of an example from about a decade ago concerning two programs from the FDA.

            The first was (effectively) a dairy subsidy; the government was looking for ways to increase consumption of milk to help out farmers. So they worked with a few pizza places and the "cheesy crust" was born - a way to sell a lot more cheese per pizza.

            At the same time, another group was responsible for coming up with nutritional guidelines. Their advice - eat less meat and dairy.

            Good for re-election campaigns if nothing else.
            Understood. You describe some of the types of things that make me mourn for my country.

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            • #21
              The sad part is that a new tariff on foreign solar panels will more than likely raise the cost of an installation.

              With the tax credits going away it may be almost impossible for a homeowner with low electric rates to install a system that pays for itself in less than a decade.

              Both of those actions will hurt the solar industry for the homeowner.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
                The sad part is that a new tariff on foreign solar panels will more than likely raise the cost of an installation.

                With the tax credits going away it may be almost impossible for a homeowner with low electric rates to install a system that pays for itself in less than a decade.

                Both of those actions will hurt the solar industry for the homeowner.
                While I think tariffs are a terrible idea in principle for any product, as a ball park observation, if panels can be had for ~~ $0.75 - $1.00/STC Watt by an end user, and vendors/installers can probably do a bit better, and turnkey systems can be found or ~ $3.25/STC Watt, it would seem to me that bumping the panel prices by, say, (and who knows) maybe $0.50/STC Watt (or ~ $0.35/STC Watt after tax credit) will certainly increase prices to those who do not self install (most everyone ?) by ~ 15 % or so, but it won't be the end of the world. Hell, a lot of solar ignorant folks still drink the Sunpower koolaid and pay close to twice that much in Sunpower premium over other panels, get nothing extra for the money in terms of performance or any other parameter that counts, and walk away clueless and happy. Strange world we live in sometimes.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
                  Hell, a lot of solar ignorant folks still drink the Sunpower koolaid and pay close to twice that much in Sunpower premium over other panels, get nothing extra for the money in terms of performance or any other parameter that counts, and walk away clueless and happy.
                  Because a few people pay for Sunpower does not mean that everyone wants to or can afford to pay that much. There has been a lot of installers closing up shops this year already. Module costs have been going up on speculation of the tariff and most popular models have been getting scarce as well due to hoarding by distributors, installers, as well as manufacturers pre-importing but keeping at the doc loads of their most popular models.
                  With decreasing incentives at the state level, and attacks on net metering with fees, regulation changes, etc, we have a tight market in most locations now. a $0.40/w increase in costs will result in pretty close to that in increase to price. This will make most financed solar difficult to pencil out for any reasonable time frame.

                  Further it will reduce all pressure on Panasonic and other premium module makers to reduce costs.

                  If anything it will push any remaining residential to thin film which doesn't last as long and is much worse for the environment in production and end of life.

                  probably be the end for some struggling inverter companies like enphase.
                  OutBack FP1 w/ CS6P-250P http://bit.ly/1Sg5VNH

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                    While I think tariffs are a terrible idea in principle for any product, as a ball park observation, if panels can be had for ~~ $0.75 - $1.00/STC Watt by an end user, and vendors/installers can probably do a bit better, and turnkey systems can be found or ~ $3.25/STC Watt, it would seem to me that bumping the panel prices by, say, (and who knows) maybe $0.50/STC Watt (or ~ $0.35/STC Watt after tax credit) will certainly increase prices to those who do not self install (most everyone ?) by ~ 15 % or so, but it won't be the end of the world. Hell, a lot of solar ignorant folks still drink the Sunpower koolaid and pay close to twice that much in Sunpower premium over other panels, get nothing extra for the money in terms of performance or any other parameter that counts, and walk away clueless and happy. Strange world we live in sometimes.
                    The last estimate I saw for panel cost increase was about $1/w to $1.50/w on top of existing costs. That could be high but who knows what it will be.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by ButchDeal View Post

                      Because a few people pay for Sunpower does not mean that everyone wants to or can afford to pay that much. There has been a lot of installers closing up shops this year already. Module costs have been going up on speculation of the tariff and most popular models have been getting scarce as well due to hoarding by distributors, installers, as well as manufacturers pre-importing but keeping at the doc loads of their most popular models.
                      With decreasing incentives at the state level, and attacks on net metering with fees, regulation changes, etc, we have a tight market in most locations now. a $0.40/w increase in costs will result in pretty close to that in increase to price. This will make most financed solar difficult to pencil out for any reasonable time frame.

                      Further it will reduce all pressure on Panasonic and other premium module makers to reduce costs.

                      If anything it will push any remaining residential to thin film which doesn't last as long and is much worse for the environment in production and end of life.

                      probably be the end for some struggling inverter companies like enphase.
                      I don't know what constitutes "a few", but the limited information from my HOA that I can speak to has ~ 20 % of 550 homes with arrays on them, and in spite of my best efforts to inform people, 25 % of all those solar arrays in my HOA use Sunpower panels. That's the power of marketing - that marketing being one of the big reasons I bought a boatload of SP stock 5 years ago and sold a couple of years ago for a tidy profit, but that's a separate issue.

                      As for what you write of, I have no problem believing all of it. Indeed, a lot of what you write is a consequence and outcome of what can and usually does happen when tariffs are, or might be, imposed. It screws up the market as well as screwing consumers, and the playing field of free enterprise.

                      While I certainly want R.E. to succeed, and I wish all responsible vendors such as you to not only survive, but thrive, and also while not liking tariffs one bit, I see a lot of the gloom & doom you write of as having more benefit than drawbacks to consumers, to the health and robustness of the R.E. industry and its products in terms of the better value for $ spent from both real competition and the need to get/stay lean & mean that the end of subsidies can bring.

                      I expect times are about to get tough. I'm pretty sure you & I see this differently, but those vendors/mfgs. who survive, and the products they sell will be stronger as a result of the shakeout, with prices and hopefully value per $ spent being what they need to be in a comparison with alternative ways of meeting electrical demands in competitive and cost effective ways.

                      One other thing: I'll reiterate what I wrote a couple of days ago: Looks like tariffs will protect ~ 8,000 or so U.S. mfg. jobs. It will also possibly may imperil, in one way or another ~~ 250 000 U.S. jobs in installation, marketing, supply, etc. Where's the logic in that ?

                      Respectfully,
                      Last edited by J.P.M.; 09-26-2017, 12:19 PM.

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