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  • Suniva ITC Case

    The ITC has officially voted 4-0 in favor of Suniva.
    If you are planning to go solar, buy your modules now before the price doubles.

  • #2
    The material price of the modules may double, that does not mean the price of a turnkey system will double.

    I saw a couple of numbers in the Time rag that claimed while 8,000 folks are employed making panels in the U.S., about 250,000 who are currently employed installing/servicing PV systems in the U.S. I'm not claiming any accuracy for those numbers, but the order of magnitude seems at least not unreasonable.

    As perhaps a bit more information on the mfg. employment numbers, maybe giving them some credence, given that the biggest planned (to date anyway), U.S. mfg. facility, in Buffalo, which was more/less promised to employ 500 in the plant, and inside scuttlebutt BTW, being is that'll probably be closer to 300 due to improvements in mfg. processes and other things - if it ever comes to fruition at all - no word on how much longer startup will be delayed - S.O.P. for Musk, might seem to make that 8,000 number maybe even a bit high.

    Seems like more damage to free enterprise and the U.S. shooting itself in the foot with misplaced protectionism. Maybe el presidente will not take the recommendation(s).

    Comment


    • #3
      Well if Nevada was an indicator on how the solar industry can shut down due to higher costs and longer ROI (due to eliminating the Net Metering option) I would say if the cost of panels go up significantly you will see a large portion of that 250,000 people out of a job.

      As for our current president. Remember he does not like foreign made products so my guess is that he will side with the ITC. I guess we will have to wait and see how much the costs for a homeowner changes.

      Comment


      • #4
        That spare pallet of REC (made in Singapore) 290W panels in my garage is looking better all the time.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
          Well if Nevada was an indicator on how the solar industry can shut down due to higher costs and longer ROI (due to eliminating the Net Metering option) I would say if the cost of panels go up significantly you will see a large portion of that 250,000 people out of a job.

          As for our current president. Remember he does not like foreign made products so my guess is that he will side with the ITC. I guess we will have to wait and see how much the costs for a homeowner changes.
          Staying away from the political fray, between protectionist trade policies which are, in the end, always counterproductive, and realignment of net metering, the future of PV ain't looking as rosy as it once looked.

          Or, if selling to the market, and true competition (with the price of POCO power), that is, non subsidized PV, have any validity, things will get lean/mean in the PV business and consumers will have more availability of better PV product for sharper prices. Or, PV, having proved it cannot compete on a level field, will decline to a nitch position. Economic reality bites.
          Last edited by J.P.M.; 09-22-2017, 04:02 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
            The material price of the modules may double, that does not mean the price of a turnkey system will double.

            I saw a couple of numbers in the Time rag that claimed while 8,000 folks are employed making panels in the U.S., about 250,000 who are currently employed installing/servicing PV systems in the U.S. I'm not claiming any accuracy for those numbers, but the order of magnitude seems at least not unreasonable.

            As perhaps a bit more information on the mfg. employment numbers, maybe giving them some credence, given that the biggest planned (to date anyway), U.S. mfg. facility, in Buffalo, which was more/less promised to employ 500 in the plant, and inside scuttlebutt BTW, being is that'll probably be closer to 300 due to improvements in mfg. processes and other things - if it ever comes to fruition at all - no word on how much longer startup will be delayed - S.O.P. for Musk, might seem to make that 8,000 number maybe even a bit high.

            Seems like more damage to free enterprise and the U.S. shooting itself in the foot with misplaced protectionism. Maybe el presidente will not take the recommendation(s).
            Those numbers are probably pretty close.
            SEIA is estimating that the tariffs could result in a loss of 88,000 jobs over the next year.
            Places like CA, MA and a few others will continue to grow, but other markets with no RE mandates will go dark for another few years.

            I'm not holding my breath for Trump not doing anything.

            Originally posted by BackwoodsEE View Post
            That spare pallet of REC (made in Singapore) 290W panels in my garage is looking better all the time.
            Oddly enough, Canada and Singapore may be unaffected.
            Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post


            Staying away from the political fray, between protectionist trade policies which are, in the end, always counterproductive, and realignment of net metering, the future of PV ain't looking as rosy as it once looked.

            Or, if selling to the market, and true competition (with the price of POCO power), that is, non subsidized PV, have any validity, things will get lean/mean in the PV business and consumers will have more availability of better PV product for sharper prices. Or, PV, having proved it cannot compete on a level field, will decline to a nitch position. Economic reality bites.
            How will PV be on a level playing field if we double the price by imposing tariffs?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

              Staying away from the political fray, between protectionist trade policies which are, in the end, always counterproductive, and realignment of net metering, the future of PV ain't looking as rosy as it once looked.

              Or, if selling to the market, and true competition (with the price of POCO power), that is, non subsidized PV, have any validity, things will get lean/mean in the PV business and consumers will have more availability of better PV product for sharper prices. Or, PV, having proved it cannot compete on a level field, will decline to a nitch position. Economic reality bites.
              My guess is that with solar generated power at the Utility scale now being about $0.06/kWh and for a home owner about $0.16/kWh you will see more MW systems being installed and less home systems.

              If panel cost jump up then you can forget home systems for a while until the dust settles or the US starts to make low cost equipment. I wouldn't hold your breath waiting on low cost US panels.
              Last edited by SunEagle; 09-22-2017, 05:55 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                My guess is that with solar generated power at the Utility scale now being about $0.06/kWh and for a home owner about $0.16/kWh you will see more MW systems being installed and less home systems.

                If panel cost jump up then you can forget home systems for a while until the dust settles or the US starts to make low cost equipment. I wouldn't hold your breath waiting on low cost US panels.
                I wonder about that $0.06/kWh busbar cost. If correct, it seems a bit high, especially when SDG & E is telling me that what I send back to them as excess generation carries a price of $0.027/kWh.

                Seems like someone is dancing with someone else's leg.

                As for U.S. panel costs, it seems with automation replacing manual labor, higher costs in the U..S. will need to find another reason besides wages.
                Last edited by SunEagle; 09-22-2017, 05:55 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
                  Or, PV, having proved it cannot compete on a level field, will decline to a nitch position. Economic reality bites.
                  I would suggest that protectionist tariffs are not "a level playing field."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                    I wonder about that $0.06/kWh busbar cost. If correct, it seems a bit high, especially when SDG & E is telling me that what I send back to them as excess generation carries a price of $0.027/kWh.

                    Seems like someone is dancing with someone else's leg.

                    As for U.S. panel costs, it seems with automation replacing manual labor, higher costs in the U..S. will need to find another reason besides wages.
                    Actually I have read a few articles showing the cost to generate electricity on a Utility scale for US POCO's has come way down while homeowners cost is still high. Other countries have lower the rate below $0.06/kWh but my guess is that they do not have some of the environmental hoops to jump through that the US does. Without those type of regulations you can generate power much cheaper.

                    Just because you get $0.027/kWh payback for excess power doesn't mean anyone can generate a kWh for the same amount.

                    Here is one of those articles with data from the DOE.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                      I wonder about that $0.06/kWh busbar cost. If correct, it seems a bit high, especially when SDG & E is telling me that what I send back to them as excess generation carries a price of $0.027/kWh.
                      that is their price and this is yours

                      Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
                      As for U.S. panel costs, it seems with automation replacing manual labor, higher costs in the U..S. will need to find another reason besides wages.
                      and I'm sure you have no doubts those reasons will be readily found.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
                        I would suggest that protectionist tariffs are not "a level playing field."
                        As would I, any more than subsidies like the fed. tax credit are a level field or a productive situation. One looks like the inverse of the other to me, and neither does any good.

                        In addition, and a slightly different topic, how illogical is it to put a tariff in a product that raises its price and then, offer a tax credit that offsets part of that very same tariff caused price increase ?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                          Actually I have read a few articles showing the cost to generate electricity on a Utility scale for US POCO's has come way down while homeowners cost is still high. Other countries have lower the rate below $0.06/kWh but my guess is that they do not have some of the environmental hoops to jump through that the US does. Without those type of regulations you can generate power much cheaper.

                          Just because you get $0.027/kWh payback for excess power doesn't mean anyone can generate a kWh for the same amount.

                          Here is one of those articles with data from the DOE.
                          If PV is so much cleaner and environmentally more benign than fossil fuel generation, where do the environmental hoops come in ? If all that's true, such hoops ought to be either a whole lot smaller or non existent.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                            Actually I have read a few articles showing the cost to generate electricity on a Utility scale for US POCO's has come way down while homeowners cost is still high. Other countries have lower the rate below $0.06/kWh but my guess is that they do not have some of the environmental hoops to jump through that the US does. Without those type of regulations you can generate power much cheaper.

                            Just because you get $0.027/kWh payback for excess power doesn't mean anyone can generate a kWh for the same amount.

                            Here is one of those articles with data from the DOE.
                            My POCO calls it "the wholesale value of the commodity". Not sure what that means, but if it's what the EIA calls the wholesale price, it's probably something like the lowest price the POCO pays for power on the spot market over any one month. Such pricing reflects supply and demand as much or more than the busbar cost.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                              My POCO calls it "the wholesale value of the commodity". Not sure what that means, but if it's what the EIA calls the wholesale price, it's probably something like the lowest price the POCO pays for power on the spot market over any one month. Such pricing reflects supply and demand as much or more than the busbar cost.
                              I agree that a large POCO can probably get power pretty cheap from a "co-generator" if they do not have contracts with guaranteed sales. Due to the deregulation a while ago the price of a kWh changes like the weather. But the payback seems to be locked into some long term conditions which lets the POCO's make money or loss money depending on what is available to purchase.

                              Adding in the cost of environmental or health related issues is a moving target due to how individuals are affected by what they breath and drink. Of course being overheated due the lack of power certainly has gotten some headlines here in Florida and solar would not have saved any of the people that died in the nursing home.

                              Last tidbit. Did anyone see the pictures of that large solar array down in Puerto Rico? Basically is has been trashed due to high winds and probably will be out of commission for months. So while I am a supporter of solar I still think a weather hardened power generator is a smart way to keep the lights on.

                              Comment

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