American manufacturing of solar panels -- worth protecting?

[SunEagle]

Well, but you are saying two different things here - "costs will come down" (I agree) and "costs will stay high" (disagree.)

Power delivery is an issue primarily because batteries tend to be small now - because they are expensive. Want to have a Nissan Leaf battery pack deliver 80kW from its 24kwhr battery? You have to discharge it over 3C. Might be an issue for some batteries. Want to have a Bolt deliver 150kW from its 60kwhr battery? Lots more power - but only a 2.5C discharge rate. So as time goes on, the power vs energy issues for EV and home batteries decline.

That's true of every consumer item out there. It used to be that oil was the big worry - now it's lithium. But I don't see that as a big deal. I have a friend who is a geologist and works as a mining engineer, and she travels to South Africa, Mexico, Australia, Chile and Argentina to work on their lithium mines. It's not likely that the US will suddenly have issues with all those countries.

Cheap - they are heading in that direction now, as they have been for decades.
Easy to find - that's purely a personal call. To me, batteries are easy to find. To others, they might be hard - but fortunately with more and more solar installers doing battery installations for self consumption, that won't matter as much.

Costs are high now and will be there for a while. They may come down but also have the chance of increasing should Lithium become hard to get. My crystal ball is not clear enough to know what they will cost in 5 years but I do hope they are much cheaper then now.

As for who will be able to afford batteries and EV's.

Well think about it. How many people actually make more than $50k a year and what size family do they support? My guess is that batteries will continue to be a rich mans product until they can be found for $50/kWh.

As for EV's. Maybe when they are mass produced for less than $20,000 (without rebates) and can go 200+ miles on a charge you will start to see more US customers. But until then the EV is just too expensive for the every day operator.

[bcroe]

So I'd disagree that we've only seen "a few incremental improvements" in the past few centuries. Just in the past few _decades_ we've seen tremendous improvements. If we take the technology we have right now, and change nothing about it except to streamline production and recycling (i.e. process, not technology, improvements) we've got workable transportation and grid solutions. But of course we will also see technology improvements. Silicon anode, intrinsically safe structures, solid state - these will all, in the future, continue to improve capacity, watts per dollar and lifetime.

I agree no one should "hold their breath" for those changes. Fortunately they don't need to.

We agree on everything except the definition of "incremental". I consider the change from tubes to transistors
to be incremental; the development of large scale integrated circuits (billions of transistors I read) is a total game
changer. Even a 200,000 transistor chip I designed long ago, was revolutionary. Battery capability has improved,
but it can't, nor is it close, to plugging directly into any oil or nuke scale project and accomplishing the same thing,
as implied by thejumpingsheep.
Bruce Roe

[jflorey2]

We agree on everything except the definition of "incremental". I consider the change from tubes to transistors
to be incremental; the development of large scale integrated circuits (billions of transistors I read) is a total game
changer. Even a 200,000 transistor chip I designed long ago, was revolutionary. Battery capability has improved,
but it can't, nor is it close, to plugging directly into any oil or nuke scale project and accomplishing the same thing,
as implied by thejumpingsheep.

Right - nor will they ever be able to. Batteries are not an energy source; they are storage of existing energy sources.

However, what they will be able to do is to store energy to 1) stabilize frequency, 2) stabilize voltage and 3) shift energy between generation and loads. 1) and 2) are already being done and 3) is being done in places with expensive power (Hawaii.) This will expand rapidly as utilities try to deal with intermittent generation from renewables and intermittent demand from customers.

[jflorey2]

Well think about it. How many people actually make more than $50k a year and what size family do they support?

About half of the US. Median household income in 2015 was $56K. 40% of households earned more than $70K and 25% of households earned more than $100K.

My guess is that batteries will continue to be a rich mans product until they can be found for $50/kWh.

Perhaps. But based on the large number of companies now offering behind-the-meter storage at this year's Intersolar - and based on how local installers can't keep up with demand for self-supply - that's changing pretty fast.

[cebury]

Costs are high now and will be there for a while. They may come down but also have the chance of increasing should Lithium become hard to get. My crystal ball is not clear enough to know what they will cost in 5 years but I do hope they are much cheaper then now.

As for who will be able to afford batteries and EV's.

Well think about it. How many people actually make more than $50k a year and what size family do they support? My guess is that batteries will continue to be a rich mans product until they can be found for $50/kWh.

As for EV's. Maybe when they are mass produced for less than $20,000 (without rebates) and can go 200+ miles on a charge you will start to see more US customers. But until then the EV is just too expensive for the every day operator.

Do you think the greenie CA ev car market is too small to make any real impact? Cause it just seems to get stranger around here. State wss discussing adding another approx. 3k state rebate for EV vehicles on top of the existing 14.5k local,st,fed in central ca. That would put the Chevy bolt down to 40k outdoor - 17.5k eq 22.5k. If this passes, it makes the fiat 500e leases essentially free. Current rates are at 6k down, 6k rebate back, 77/mo x 36 months. The new 3k would cover all those 77 month payments.

[SunEagle]

Do you think the greenie CA ev car market is too small to make any real impact? Cause it just seems to get stranger around here. State wss discussing adding another approx. 3k state rebate for EV vehicles on top of the existing 14.5k local,st,fed in central ca. That would put the Chevy bolt down to 40k outdoor - 17.5k eq 22.5k. If this passes, it makes the fiat 500e leases essentially free. Current rates are at 6k down, 6k rebate back, 77/mo x 36 months. The new 3k would cover all those 77 month payments.

There is no question that the rebates for an EV in California are the highest in the US. But while EV's have been increasing in numbers they are not totally available in all states. I hope that as more and more car manufacturers increase the number and styles of EV's then they will become more common place throughout the US. But my guess is that will take about 10 years especially if existing ICE vehicles are holding their value and the cost of gasoline stays low.

[SunEagle]

About half of the US. Median household income in 2015 was $56K. 40% of households earned more than $70K and 25% of households earned more than $100K.

Perhaps. But based on the large number of companies now offering behind-the-meter storage at this year's Intersolar - and based on how local installers can't keep up with demand for self-supply - that's changing pretty fast.

So I picked a number of $50k. It doesn't really matter what the household income is; $56k, $70k or $100k because most still can't afford a long millage EV and a lot will not spend the money on a short trip version.

I make over $100k and still have a problem rationalizing to get an EV because at this time the selection that I may be able to afford is few and far between. Heck we can't even lease EV's here in Fl except for a few BMW models. The EV market has not exploded in most states because most people are yet to be sold on the idea.

As for home energy storage systems. That is still a nich market in CA & HI or New England but are no where near worth the cost for the rest of the US that pays less than $0.20/kWh.

[J.P.M.]

Do you think the greenie CA ev car market is too small to make any real impact? Cause it just seems to get stranger around here. State wss discussing adding another approx. 3k state rebate for EV vehicles on top of the existing 14.5k local,st,fed in central ca. That would put the Chevy bolt down to 40k outdoor - 17.5k eq 22.5k. If this passes, it makes the fiat 500e leases essentially free. Current rates are at 6k down, 6k rebate back, 77/mo x 36 months. The new 3k would cover all those 77 month payments.

CA is not the rest of the U.S., or even close in many respects. IMO, that's more good than not, but parochially thinking there will be a burgeoning EV market elsewhere, particularly in colder climates from looking at what's happening in CA may not be an accurate reflection of reality unless something unforeseen happens. There's perception and then there's reality.

[jflorey2]

So I picked a number of $50k. It doesn't really matter what the household income is; $56k, $70k or $100k because most still can't afford a long millage EV and a lot will not spend the money on a short trip version.

Agreed. Most will be more likely to spend money on a pluggable hybrid than a long range EV, although most people for a long time will be perfectly happy with a gas car.

I make over $100k and still have a problem rationalizing to get an EV because at this time the selection that I may be able to afford is few and far between. Heck we can't even lease EV's here in Fl except for a few BMW models. The EV market has not exploded in most states because most people are yet to be sold on the idea.

Definitely agreed there. EV sales are growing by about 80% a year, but since they started out with such small sales numbers, it will be a decade before any appreciable percentage of cars are pure EV's. Before that we'll see hybrids (and a few PHEV's) dominate the "electrified" vehicle segment.

As for home energy storage systems. That is still a nich market in CA & HI or New England but are no where near worth the cost for the rest of the US that pays less than $0.20/kWh.

Yep. Early penetration into the more expensive markets will tend to drive the price down and work out the bugs with behind-the-meter storage, bringing it into reach of more markets. (A similar progression happened with solar.)

[Sunking]

Well know we know Lithium powered EV's generate more CO2 that luxury V8 Ice cars in 8 years. No gain, just a lot of expense.

[cebury]

CA is not the rest of the U.S., or even close in many respects. IMO, that's more good than not, but parochially thinking there will be a burgeoning EV market elsewhere, particularly in colder climates from looking at what's happening in CA may not be an accurate reflection of reality unless something unforeseen happens. There's perception and then there's reality.

Yean i was more curious about numbers and how big of a market would it take to truly impact the the technology for things like price reduction, user acceptance, in medium term. For example, in CA Browns goal was 1.5 million ZEVs in place by 2025 (some think by 2020). Even if all these were just pure lith EV, would that be a drop in the bucket to help an industry mature and impact like markets such as home storage? Its a question of total ignorance about the technology and perhaps too broad even to answer, which probably makes it a dumb question.

[SunEagle]

Agreed. Most will be more likely to spend money on a pluggable hybrid than a long range EV, although most people for a long time will be perfectly happy with a gas car.

Definitely agreed there. EV sales are growing by about 80% a year, but since they started out with such small sales numbers, it will be a decade before any appreciable percentage of cars are pure EV's. Before that we'll see hybrids (and a few PHEV's) dominate the "electrified" vehicle segment.

Yep. Early penetration into the more expensive markets will tend to drive the price down and work out the bugs with behind-the-meter storage, bringing it into reach of more markets. (A similar progression happened with solar.)

I am very much interested in getting an EV or hybrid in the future. But until the number of models increase, range becomes 200+ and the costs come down I will be staying with my Tundra and Altima since they both have about 100k miles left in their lives.

[J.P.M.]

I am very much interested in getting an EV or hybrid in the future. But until the number of models increase, range becomes 200+ and the costs come down I will be staying with my Tundra and Altima since they both have about 100k miles left in their lives.

I'm not much of a car bug, but the Porsche EV concept put a twinkle in my eye. Sort of like a German Tesla from established car makers.

I figure 3-5 yrs. and no ICE EV's will be common in CA, maybe about the time storage gets more cost effective. I'm probably holding pat til then on both. I am however, currently looking at storage for investment opps. on a small scale.

[Mike90250]

I'm not much of a car bug, but the Porsche EV concept put a twinkle in my eye. Sort of like a German Tesla from established car makers.

I figure 3-5 yrs. and no ICE EV's will be common in CA, maybe about the time storage gets more cost effective. I'm probably holding pat til then on both. I am however, currently looking at storage for investment opps. on a small scale.

That works only in the flat land city centers. Get into the rural hills, where 70% of California's terrain is, and EV's spend 23hrs /day sucking electrons into their batteries.

[J.P.M.]

That works only in the flat land city centers. Get into the rural hills, where 70% of California's terrain is, and EV's spend 23hrs /day sucking electrons into their batteries.

70% of the terrain but maybe only 20 % of the people ? I still don't get your 23 hr./day statement.