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  • SunEagle
    replied
    Originally posted by PugPower View Post
    Energy officials in CA estimated the new solar provisions will add $10,000 to the cost of building a single-family home, about $8,400 from adding solar and about $1,500 for making homes more energy-efficient. But those costs would be offset by lower utility bills over the lifespan of the solar panels. It is unknown how this will affect sales prices but one can assume that if it costs the builders an addl. 10K to add solar to a home, the asking price will increase by at least as much plus whatever markup. With the median home value in CA being $550K+. I don't think this is going to be a very big deal to anyone who can currently afford to buy a home at these prices. Keep in mind that this only applies to new construction, which there is very little of in some of the more densely populated parts of CA.
    It makes sense to purchase a PV system when you are building a new home. The additional cost is minimal compare to the rest of the home. Still there are some people that may not be able to get a mortgage if the amount they have to borrow is above what they can afford. It all comes down to the additional amount the builder asks for to include the PV.

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  • PugPower
    replied
    Energy officials in CA estimated the new solar provisions will add $10,000 to the cost of building a single-family home, about $8,400 from adding solar and about $1,500 for making homes more energy-efficient. But those costs would be offset by lower utility bills over the lifespan of the solar panels. It is unknown how this will affect sales prices but one can assume that if it costs the builders an addl. 10K to add solar to a home, the asking price will increase by at least as much plus whatever markup. With the median home value in CA being $550K+. I don't think this is going to be a very big deal to anyone who can currently afford to buy a home at these prices. Keep in mind that this only applies to new construction, which there is very little of in some of the more densely populated parts of CA.

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  • SunEagle
    replied
    Originally posted by Ampster View Post

    I wonder if that might shift when the net zero construction standards come into effect in 2020. As more people experience the benefits, perceptions may change. However what we are probably going to see is rate changes, TOU period shifts and fixed charges so that a net zero home may still get a substantial bill.
    I fear that the net zero construction law will drive people away from CA because of the increased cost for a new home. I believe the city of St Pete here in Fl tried to pass a similar law and it was voted down by a large %. People just don't want to be told to do something. They would rather the State find a way to lower prices so PV is affordable to all.

    On a side note I read somewhere (probably fake news) that CA would be soon mandating EV's for all future vehicles. The rub was that you may be required to purchase an EV yet the POCO's might be turning off the power to reduce fire hazards. Seems ironic to me.

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  • Ampster
    replied
    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

    Many states do not reassess residential property when PV is added. CA is one such state. Believe it or not, and contrary to what solar peddlers and real estate slugs will claim, some people looking to buy a home don't like PV. Not everyone is a fan. At least not without knowing the limitations.
    ........
    I wonder if that might shift when the net zero construction standards come into effect in 2020. As more people experience the benefits, perceptions may change. However what we are probably going to see is rate changes, TOU period shifts and fixed charges so that a net zero home may still get a substantial bill.

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  • J.P.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by Crash View Post
    These guys know more than me but I wonder if part of the issue is related to policy and codes for going solar. In FL they don't tax solar installation and they also don't add to your real estate taxes. So if they don't add taxable value does that lead to not increasing property value? I have liked to track my home value on zillow (even though it is not really accurate). I never saw a real difference in value when I went solar. Just normal market fluctuations.
    Many states do not reassess residential property when PV is added. CA is one such state. Believe it or not, and contrary to what solar peddlers and real estate slugs will claim, some people looking to buy a home don't like PV. Not everyone is a fan. At least not without knowing the limitations.

    If more folks knew more about PV, or if they knew some of what I believe I might know about the subject, they might not be quite so eager to swallow the B.S.

    I'm as big a fan of alternate energy as you're likely to find, but if I was house hunting I wouldn't consider a home with exiting PV on it unless the owner lowered the asking price by as much as it would cost to remove the system. Or negotiate.

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  • Crash
    replied
    These guys know more than me but I wonder if part of the issue is related to policy and codes for going solar. In FL they don't tax solar installation and they also don't add to your real estate taxes. So if they don't add taxable value does that lead to not increasing property value? I have liked to track my home value on zillow (even though it is not really accurate). I never saw a real difference in value when I went solar. Just normal market fluctuations.

    Leave a comment:


  • J.P.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by PugPower View Post
    You think NEM 2.0 is bad, just wait. I'll bet NEM 3.0 is gonna be a real doozy. Coming soon to a POCO near you in 2020!

    I don't understand why anyone going solar today without a battery would go on the SDGE DR-SES rate. The price difference between on-peak and off-peak is almost $0.24. Using TOU-DR the difference is only approx. $0.06.
    One big, simple reason might be most residential PV users, with or without battery systems - at least the ones I speak with - don't have a clue about rates, or what rate plan they're on, or even that a choice of rate plans exist. Ask around. You may come to the same conclusion.

    Most all new SDG & E customers who are NEM 2.0 users are on DR-SES not because of any conscious decision on their part, but because it's the default rate for such users chosen for residential users by SDG & E if they do not proactively make a choice. They just go down the rate chute with all the other sheeple.

    Opinion only, but based on experience: Residential users don't understand what's happening when they use electricity or how they're charged for it, and SDG & E, like most POCOs, knows that making things easy to understand is not good for profits. I'd suggest that's not a combination likely to lower electric bills.

    I suspect even if POCOs did make things simpler, and then also spoon fed the info, most users would still be, and stay, in the dark.

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  • J.P.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by Ampster View Post

    Yes, that could be true for the rest of the country as well. It does take a clever writing skill in order to be understood by the ignorant.
    Agreed. I'm pretty ignorant about most stuff and further constrained by my limited writing skills and thought process when I need to condense concepts in order to better reach those folks with limited attention spans who get frustrated following ideas that take more than fifty words to explain.

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  • Ampster
    replied
    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
    ....... Nor do I believe for one hot second that there are any appraisers in San Diego county who would even understand what I just wrote. ......
    Yes, that could be true for the rest of the country as well. It does take a clever writing skill in order to be understood by the ignorant.

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  • Ampster
    replied
    Originally posted by PugPower View Post
    You think NEM 2.0 is bad, just wait. I'll bet NEM 3.0 is gonna be a real doozy. Coming soon to a POCO near you in 2020!

    I don't understand why anyone going solar today without a battery would go on the SDGE DR-SES rate. The price difference between on-peak and off-peak is almost $0.24. Using TOU-DR the difference is only approx. $0.06.
    Yes, NEM 3.0 is going to be tough.
    Regarding differentials in pricing between TOU periods I think there are some usage profiles that can benefit from larger differentials. I have often said that one can leverage solar by purchasing an EV. An EV allows you to charge at a less expensive rate. Of course this assumes at least some of your solar generation (inverter production) is at the higher rate. Your mileage may vary.
    Last edited by Ampster; 10-23-2019, 08:22 AM.

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  • Ampster
    replied
    Just one more data point. In summer of 2018 I had an appraiser add 50% of the cost of PV solar to the value of my home. It all depends on where you are standing. This was in Sonoma California.
    Last edited by Ampster; 10-23-2019, 08:23 AM.

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  • PugPower
    replied
    You think NEM 2.0 is bad, just wait. I'll bet NEM 3.0 is gonna be a real doozy. Coming soon to a POCO near you in 2020!

    I don't understand why anyone going solar today without a battery would go on the SDGE DR-SES rate. The price difference between on-peak and off-peak is almost $0.24. Using TOU-DR the difference is only approx. $0.06.
    Last edited by PugPower; 10-23-2019, 03:01 AM.

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  • J.P.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by PugPower View Post
    In San Diego county, with one of the highes install numbers in the country, homebuyers and agents have become more savvy about the benefits of residential PV systems. This transition has taken some years, but with the sky high prices of SDGE it's easy for many homeowners and would-be buyers to see the benefits of a residential PV system especially when you factor in net-metering on top of incentives and rebates which reduce the break-even period dramatically. RE agents are becoming more informed about the value of installed PV systems and how to market them as more and more homes with pre-installed solar come onto the market. All that being said, if you made you a bad deal and overpaid for your system or signed into a bad lease, power purchase, or rental agreement, of course it will negatively affect the value of your home when it's time to sell. The reduction of the tax credit, proposed changes to net-metering by utilities, and preemptive black-outs may dramatically affect the future solar market driving up the demand for batteries.
    With respect to the changes to net metering and how those changes impact the value of residential PV system production, for SDG & E and I strongly suggest the other two CA IOU POCOS, those changes had the effect of reducing the value of a residential PV produced kWh to somewhere between 22 and 25 % to about 75 to 78 % of the value of the same production under NEM 1.0.

    I haven't seen or heard any solar peddlers around here talking about that. Nor do I believe for one hot second that there are any appraisers in San Diego county who would even understand what I just wrote. I suspect by and large that the appraisers and real estate slugs do little more than repeat what they hear and/or what they read in the real estate rags. For confirmation of that, ask a few of them to discuss the effect that NEM 2.0 changes had on the value of the energy produced by residential PV systems and watch their eyes glaze over for a likely Q.E.D.

    An example of how NEM reduced the value of system produced electricity:

    Using DR-SES tariff rates and times in effect 05/19/2019 using the (old) grandfathered NEM 2.0 rates and times vs. the new (non grandfathered) NEM 2.0 rates and times, and using PVWatts with data for Miramar MCAC for modeled solar generation, every installed STC kW of a 20 deg. tilt 180 deg. azimuth array will produce on a long term average, according to the PVWatts model, about 1,743 kWh/yr per yr. (So a 5 kW system will produce 5 kw*1,743 kWh/yr. per STC kW = 8,715 kWh/yr.).

    My spreadsheets show that under the (old) grandfathered rates and times for NEM 2.0 users, the value of the electricity produced is ~ $626.48 or ~ a value of $626.48/1,743kWh = $0.35943/kWh.
    Under NEM 2.0 and rates and times for new users, or more accurately, those systems that do not qualify for grandfathering, the value of the same electricity production is ~ $477.91, or a per kWh value of $477.91/1,743 kWh = $0.27419/kWh.

    $626.48- $477.91)/$626.48 = 0.237. Other orientations produce slightly different percentages.

    A side note: The optimum azimuth shifts from ~ 190 deg. under the old rates/times to ~ 210 deg. under the new rates/times. And specifically, under either old or new, all 270 deg. azimuths are less productive than those having a more southerly azimuth.

    All the numbers I generated for all azimuths I ran assume a system offset of < 100% of usage.

    With Straight T.O.U. pricing such as the DR-SES tariff uses, system cost effectiveness as measured by a LCOE per PV generated kWh type cost analysis tends to stay fairly constant until system offset approaches 100 %.

    If/when system production offset gets beyond 100%, system cost effectiveness as measured by LOCE per generated kWh method drops rather quickly to below the LOCE for POCO purchased power, meaning that during the selected length of the analysis, a user would be money ahead not having a system as large as the one chosen.

    Take what you may want of the above. Scrap the rest.

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  • nwdiver
    replied
    Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

    I appreciate your points and understand the concept of appraisals. Still, and as anecdotal information only, I've spoken with more than my share of appraisers and I'd honestly say that probably half of them openly admitted they had no idea of how to value PV system. Speaking with them, I believe what they're telling me. The rest seemed to try to hedge their answers. Such experiences don't tend to inspire my confidence in appraisals as they may relate to PV systems.

    If I was a savvy buyer and knew I will spend maybe $5K/yr. on electricity over the next 12, and in any case less than that n$10K you use, why would I pay for something I won't use or at least not use that a negotiating tool to garner a lower overall price ?

    BTW, one other point: Who says the appraised value is an absolute number that sets an and inviolate number on the value of a property. If it does, that would make negotiating a price meaningless. I thought one big reason for appraisals is to help set an upper l limit for a mortgage.
    That goes back to my previous comment on much of this being due to ignorance on the part of realtors and you can broaden that to appraisers. There has been an approved metric for >10 years called PV Value (You'll have to google that so this post isn't flagged as spam...); I refinanced a home ~10 years ago and the appraiser attempted to assign $0 value to my 8.4kW PV system. I was irritated that I was paying someone to do I job I felt they were clearly unqualified to do and we had a heated back and forth. I sent them the PV value spreadsheet and they drudgingly added ~$10k to the appraised value.

    Then... a friend sold his home with a 15.4kW ground mount and the buyers bank refused to approve the loan until the seller proved that the PV system WASN'T leased. It was a DIY install so he didn't have a receipt aside from the invoice for the materials and initially that wasn't good enough. The buyers bank was asking him to prove a negative...... apparently they hadn't taken any logic classes and didn't know that you... you can't prove a negative

    Appraisals are intended to protect banks mostly and in my experience skirt the line of being a scam. The appraised value always seems to suspiciously fall very close to most offers when selling a home in my experience....
    Last edited by nwdiver; 10-22-2019, 06:21 PM.

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  • PugPower
    replied
    In San Diego county, with one of the highes install numbers in the country, homebuyers and agents have become more savvy about the benefits of residential PV systems. This transition has taken some years, but with the sky high prices of SDGE it's easy for many homeowners and would-be buyers to see the benefits of a residential PV system especially when you factor in net-metering on top of incentives and rebates which reduce the break-even period dramatically. RE agents are becoming more informed about the value of installed PV systems and how to market them as more and more homes with pre-installed solar come onto the market. All that being said, if you made you a bad deal and overpaid for your system or signed into a bad lease, power purchase, or rental agreement, of course it will negatively affect the value of your home when it's time to sell. The reduction of the tax credit, proposed changes to net-metering by utilities, and preemptive black-outs may dramatically affect the future solar market driving up the demand for batteries.

    Leave a comment:

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