I Can't See How Leasing Doesn't Beat Purchasing, Can You?

[cebury]

Doesn't Sungevity basically deal Sunrun which is basically a bank, and isn't Solar City backed by major private investors like Google, PG&E, USBank?

A friend of mine said the same thing when I warned about leasing-only companies being the most hurt if/when those incentives expire, so relying on 20yr warranty may be difficult when comparing to warranty from established panel manuf. "Backed by Google, so they'll be around a while".... as if one-time funding (selling interest or "partnering with") from a 3rd party provides immunity from future red financials. I understand the (lay) thinking, but reality can be very different. The big guys will just as quickly "cut loss and run", I mean "focus on core values" when it goes bad esp w/govt support is withdrawn.

Along with a performance garruantee where they pay you .22 a kwhr if it doesn't perform the way they said it will.

Have you read their guarantee contract yet? Although I pay value to a company that does offer one over a company that doesn't, don't count on getting paid anything from that warranty. But my installer said "we guarantee our system produces those X kwh" and the very next line was "oh and that number is lower than we expect, they always produce 8-10% more than that". By lowering the promised kwh #, and pairing it with only paying out if the SUM of loss exceeds the SUM of the excess produced over that # in a 12mo period, they won't be paying anything unless a major event happens. Even then, said warranty can have one line like "when system is fully functional" which excludes those major events. This is discussed earlier in this thread.



I don't have an answer to your original question, but I'd like to learn why it's so critical for you. It's only semi-important, almost incidental to me. Because before choosing any company, you do your due diligence looking on-line at ratings, at their other installs, word of mouth, etc. Assuming my previous checks have given me confidence in the company, i.e. the arrangements in place are working well, it's not a "red flag" IMO if the hired Solar installer sub's the engineering out or even the install out. How can I assume their internal staff are as good/better than a sub?

I'm not saying IR-YW, I can understand value with it all under one roof, there are fewer "disconnects" in the process, but most of that value is internal on their side.

For an arrangement like Home Depot selling panels and using sub-contractors for install, there's a major disconnect between the two company's and all kinds of things happen which are hard to get resolutions. HD knows the disconnect and IIRC tries to offer some arbitration but limits its own liability (direct & indirectly) through the process.

BTW a few months ago when I checked in my area, the local SC install had an expected 4 month wait time - that's before they could get out and start the installation.

[cebury]

kgregersen,

In case you missed it, the main folks in this forum are more cynical that most. They are knowledgeable and helpful. But they won't ever believe anything like "I called them and they SAID they would do X,Y,Z". To their defense, they have also seen a fair share of starry-eyed consumers new to solar who have been "blue-sky" brainwashed by salesman or website claims and then post on this forum w/out understanding any details, yet continue to repeat ostensible hype. Oh yeah, and you/your family could work for, or be associated with, Solar City (ie. a party not at arms length).

If it's true that SC will put together a better quality system for you, and if you in good-faith may want to purchase it, have them workup a binding quote for you and post it here. Ultimately that is the best (only?) way to make such a case in this forum.

Either way, try not to let it discourage you.

[KRenn]

So, a quick look at the news pages

Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-03/sunpower-to-revise-forecast-on-challenging-market-conditions-.html

Fox news

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/12/solar-firm-that-received-12-billion-federal-loan-plagued-by-financial-problems-702546811/#ixzz1amSKIrxK

Here's the problem, SunPower's credit line with Total SA is bigger than the net worth of Solar City. If this was January, I might even agree with you, but SunPower is on stable financial footing because of their behemoth backer. SolarCity doesn't have that luxury. I don't think any of these companies, SolarCity, SunRun or Sungevity have a long lifespan. They didn't exist 5 years ago and may not exist 5 years from now as solar dissipates. Regardless of your feelings on SunPower and I haven't always been their biggest supporter, they innovate in an industry filled with copy-cats and will always have a niche in the market. Their leasing program is going to enable them to move volume like crazy, which we see happening now and when solar leasing collapses, they'll shrug and continue manufacturing modules.

Dealers go belly up overnight, I've learned that a lot from the wireless phone industry. As for install times, I'm seeing them installed in 3-5 months not 8-12 like you claim, but it may be different for another territory. Plus, even if it takes longer, I'm rest assured that 1 place can meet all my needs, maintain them, guarantee them, and even price match to the best price I find.

Clearly you need to do your research on SolarCity. Also, why is it that every SolarCity quote I've seen doesn't show the make or model of the equipment that will be utilized?

http://www.yelp.com/biz/solarcity-san-mateo

While I'm absolutely thrilled to finally have solar power, the 10-month long process put a damper on the excitement.

So basically, I signed a contract in October of 2009, and as of today (11 MONTHS LATER), my system's installation date had not even been set. Needless to say, I cancelled my contract with them this afternoon.

Salesperson and installation was great UNTIL there was a recall on the unit and we had to shut it down until the replacement part came in...that was in January. The unit was out of commission for a few months...mind you, they are still pulling out automatic payments for a unit that is not working. I called several times asking for an update and finally after being a little more aggressive they magically have the part in and scheduled an installation the following week. Next week comes, no serviceperson. Another call, another appointment and we finally have it replaced and up and running. Now where is my credit for the amount of time the unit was out of service? I had to dog them for that too

ew support timbers. Solar City came and measured, examined, studied, etc and went away. Then a few weeks later, they came back and said they had to measure again. Then I waited. For months. And months. They had said the installation would be complete by May. May came and went. Finally in June I called and asked, "what's up?" Somebody called and said that they had decided that my house would not be a good candidate for their product. You know. That's fine if the age and condition of my house is the problem. But why does it take 5 months to tell me that and why is there no contact or follow up if that is the conclusion.

Panels typically don't fail, its the inverters that fail more than anything else. This is consistent online even as its frequent to hear about customers experiencing inverter problems online with all companies. You almost never hear about panels failing without some sort of external event like Baseball sized hail which is typically covered under lease terms anyways. Try googling failed panels or the like and see how many customers you'll find with issues. If you do the same for inverters, you'll find a lot of people even companies that rebuild the inverters.

Nonsense, people don't notice panels failing because it is more subtle than an inverter giving out. You'll KNOW when your inverter gives out, unless you have module-level monitoring and are diligent about constantly checking the status of your panels, you might not even have a clue that something is amiss. I know I'd rather choose the non-bankrupt manufacturers over one who has lost their shorts, figuratively speaking.

A quick call confirms that Solarcity will install Sanyo Panels along with DC optmized high end inverter setups, even on a lease, and they'll pricematch whatever quote I can bring them. Oh yea, install process is on thier webpage(see below). Sure, its going to cost more than the baseline quote because I'm getting better stuff. But they will sell it to me with the same warranty, garuantee, etc and they give me one place to go where everyone is an employed shareholder in the company ensuring more consistent, well engineered, safe install.

I would argue that I can get more personalized service from a local dealer rather than being a number in the crowd and yet have the benefit of the backing of a reputable nationwide company such as SunPower or SunEdison so if my dealer flops, I'm still taken care of. I can get faster install times, actually walk into the office and meet with an engineer. It would be nice to meet with SolarCity's engineers but unless you are in California, that isn't happening.

[KRenn]

kgregersen,

In case you missed it, the main folks in this forum are more cynical that most. They are knowledgeable and helpful. But they won't ever believe anything like "I called them and they SAID they would do X,Y,Z". To their defense, they have also seen a fair share of starry-eyed consumers new to solar who have been "blue-sky" brainwashed by salesman or website claims and then post on this forum w/out understanding any details, yet continue to repeat ostensible hype. Oh yeah, and you/your family could work for, or be associated with, Solar City (ie. a party not at arms length).

If it's true that SC will put together a better quality system for you, and if you in good-faith may want to purchase it, have them workup a binding quote for you and post it here. Ultimately that is the best (only?) way to make such a case in this forum.

Either way, try not to let it discourage you.

What I'd also like to see from SolarCity is no more open-ended contracts. The industry standard is that if the system isn't up in 6 months, the contract is null and void. SolarCity's contract basically runs indefinitely from what I've seen, so whether it takes 6 months, 12 months, 18 months.....you're locked in.

[KRenn]

[QUOTE=cebury;34072]

How can I assume their internal staff are as good/better than a sub?

Another keypoint. How can you be sure that SolarCity's installers are somehow better? I know of a local dealer that has 6 NABCEP certified installers. I'd be pretty confident in their ability to get the job done properly.

BTW a few months ago when I checked in my area, the local SC install had an expected 4 month wait time - that's before they could get out and start the installation.

Which is the story I've heard everywhere. They send a guy out to your house to measure and then you don't hear anything for months on end. That's the same with some of these other leasing-only entities as they have installers or sub-contractors in various places but their brain-trust, engineering and design, is all located in one area and now has to be divided over multiple states. I don't know about others, but when I invest in something, I want it as soon as possible and its nice to know that I can have direct interactions with the people designing it.



I have nothing against SolarCity that I don't have against some of these other entities that are financial institutions trying to play at being solar installers. I don't think the business model is viable long-term and I don't like the idea of throwing all my eggs in the same basket, especially if I'm getting modules from companies that are in financial ruin such as Evergreen.

[cebury]

I would argue that I can get more personalized service from a local dealer rather than being a number in the crowd and yet have the benefit of the backing of a reputable nationwide company such as SunPower or SunEdison so if my dealer flops, I'm still taken care of. I can get faster install times, actually walk into the office and meet with an engineer. It would be nice to meet with SolarCity's engineers but unless you are in California, that isn't happening.

Yeah that is absolutely true in my case. The local SP dealers can be either small or large sized companies (relatively speaking of course). Either way, I walked into the office of the SP dealer last week I've been working with, so I could get all my final questions answered immediately while all the staff was there (sales, site survey tech, engineer, and the owner). I arrived after hours (oops) so only the owner was still there.

I'd imagine this is true in other areas as well.

[cebury]

Which is the story I've heard everywhere. They send a guy out to your house to measure and then you don't hear anything for months on end. That's the same with some of these other leasing-only entities as they have installers or sub-contractors in various places but their brain-trust, engineering and design, is all located in one area and now has to be divided over multiple states.

That is an example of "it's NOT all under one roof" causing problems. But my pre-req to the point was you should hear about this company's complaints in your due diligence.

If a certain leasing company has strong project managers coupled with consistent communication & operational protocols, a talented network, etc, it's possible a h.o. would never know they weren't all under one roof (essentially meaning W-2 or long-term 1099 employees for same employer). If their rep is strong, I *mostly* don't care. Why not? Because there is no way to know (in advance) with certainty that any company will send only qualified people, taking care to do excellent work, in a timely manner, for your job. The simplest early-project pressure you got is locality, where you can walk into their office & be face-to-face with your contact, for accountability.

Other than due diligence, which IMO is even a fairly weak indicator (but all you can do), you might as well trust your gut or flip a coin. I was hoping to be enlightened, however.

[Ian S]

I also considered SC but their timeframe for the project was the longest of any I had quote. Their price was also considerably higher than the Sunpower deal I'm going with. I really want to have my system going by the New Year and that wasn't likely to be feasible with SC. Having it up and running by January will allow me to bank on-peak credits before the summer hits.

[djrobx]

In my case the prepaid lease and purchase worked out to about the same price, I just had to negotiate the purchase price down. ($14.5k for a 5.3kwh system installed).

I'm still on the hook for insurance, but the SunRun lease had no specific buyout amount other than "Fair Market Value". The lease was also written such that after 20 years, I'd begin purchasing power from SunRun at a cost per watt equivalent to a little less than my utility's lowest tier. Looking at the financial estimates, the system's break-even point was around 7 years, around 15 you've doubled your money, but years 20-25 is where my cash-flow analysis curves show me making the biggest gains. If I followed the plan as written by SunRun, I'd start paying them again at the 20 year mark, sharing the profits during the most lucrative period.

If you really have a $2000 buy-out at year 6, and that's in the contract, it certainly sounds more appealing than the leases I was offered; I might have gone for it. I would just caution anyone listening to sales speak or speculation about leasing companies "transferring ownership for $0 because it's too expensive to remove the panels". Go by what the contract you're signing says and nothing else. You're renting the panels and you can only assume the owner is going to do whatever they can to maximize their profits.

The chinese could produce cheaper panels, or the utilities could start lowering rates in the face of PV competition. However, the subsidies will also dry up. Investments have risk and it's sometimes hard to figure out what the optimal time to buy is. Ultimately I came to the conclusion that both the lease and the purchase are really good options. Good luck with what you decide.

[Ian S]

In my case the prepaid lease and purchase worked out to about the same price, I just had to negotiate the purchase price down. ($14.5k for a 5.3kwh system installed).

Seems odd because the lessor gets the advantage of depreciation which individuals can't so the prepaid lease has an inherent advantage in cost.

If you really have a $2000 buy-out at year 6, and that's in the contract, it certainly sounds more appealing than the leases I was offered; I might have gone for it.

Yup, it's in my lease although my buyout's much less than $2000.

I would just caution anyone listening to sales speak or speculation about leasing companies "transferring ownership for $0 because it's too expensive to remove the panels". Go by what the contract you're signing says and nothing else. You're renting the panels and you can only assume the owner is going to do whatever they can to maximize their profits.

That's true, they will. They leave themselves options by going with FMV (which actually is required for a true lease) but the owner too has options, of which the most valuable may be the ability to have the system removed at no charge. Removal is going to entail cost for the lessor and whether or not that can be profitable depends on a myriad of factors that are unpredictable today. But in 20 years, the homeowner may need a new roof and/or may want to get the latest state of the art system so removal of the old at no cost may make sense.

The chinese could produce cheaper panels, or the utilities could start lowering rates in the face of PV competition. However, the subsidies will also dry up. Investments have risk and it's sometimes hard to figure out what the optimal time to buy is. Ultimately I came to the conclusion that both the lease and the purchase are really good options. Good luck with what you decide.

I find it hard to believe that utilities would be able to lower rates since there are really no revolutionary cheap means of electricity generation on the horizon. Going solar now locks in a known cost of your electricity for at least two decades. The subsidies will dry up I think as solar becomes more popular; all the more reason to go for it now if you can.

[djrobx]

Still, if the buyout is not worth it after 20 years, I don't see why it's worth it after six, either.

Year 6 is the most attractive time for the lessor to sell you the system. It gets them out of 14 years of maintenance and an inverter replacement. If your system is still working reasonably well at year 20 they have more reason to hang onto it and extract money from you, especially if they just replaced your inverter.

[vinniethePVtech]

Year 6 is the most attractive time for the lessor to sell you the system. It gets them out of 14 years of maintenance and an inverter replacement. If your system is still working reasonably well at year 20 they have more reason to hang onto it and extract money from you, especially if they just replaced your inverter.

This makes no sense. You say "they" like the contractor actually wants to warranty for an additional 10 years. Statute of limitations is that contractor shall cover any labor if defective within a 10 year time frame as granted by your state laws.
SMA inverters, Fronius, shneider, all come with a 10 year replacement warranty. If the inverter at any time becomes deficient or does not work the manufacturer covers the cost of that inverter and replacement install.
If a consumer pays total, no lease. Makes money back from the system in under 5 years. Lets say inverter breaks under year 9. NO matter what the consumer wins with a free install at a fraction of the cost of lease cost.

Leases are stupid if you look at how rapidly PV is dropping in price. Right now under lease people are paying around $1.65 per watt when the average cost from direct purchase is $1.50. By 2013 the cost per watt for PV will meet $1. So all of you investing into leasing now are over paying.
Article on Grid Parity.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/10/solar-closes-in-on-grid-parity

[russ]

Our host has available today Conergy PH 225 P $299/panel ($1.33/watt) - pallet load orders.

[Ian S]

Right now under lease people are paying around $1.65 per watt when the average cost from direct purchase is $1.50. By 2013 the cost per watt for PV will meet $1. So all of you investing into leasing now are over paying.

You got a source for these numbers? To be $1.50 a watt direct purchase here in Phoenix would mean the actual installed price before incentives would be around $3.50 a watt. Best I've been quoted is just over $4.00 a watt. In contrast, my Sunpower prepaid lease is under a buck a watt. And if I buy it out after year 6, it's still only an additional $0.11 a watt. And I own the system at that point.

[vinniethePVtech]

You got a source for these numbers? To be $1.50 a watt direct purchase here in Phoenix would mean the actual installed price before incentives would be around $3.50 a watt. Best I've been quoted is just over $4.00 a watt. In contrast, my Sunpower prepaid lease is under a buck a watt. And if I buy it out after year 6, it's still only an additional $0.11 a watt. And I own the system at that point.

So you didn't read the article I attached then. Grid parity is not only the National average of cost per pv watt to wholesale electricity, it is international. On average PV is a $1.50 per watt.
Yes I have installed systems for much under $3.50 a watt. Have you seen how much helios PV cost. However it only comes with a 5 year craftsmanship/labor warranty, and a 20 year power. Not the best, but there is PV panels per watt going for as low as $1.30 with extremely limited warranty's.
I don't think you are reading the entire fine print on your lease. Yo may be getting what you think is a good deal at a buck per watt for your panels however the labor end is ridiculous for install. I would defenitely like to take a look at your lease agreement, and see all the itemizing that is taking place.