HELP - SolarCity vs. SunPower Quotes

[Tezz]

If SC is quoting poly's count on them losing about 3% output in the first month and stabilize from there.

Why are you spreading FUD about SolarCity? Here is the quote from this forum: 10,213 kWh is guaranteed in year 1, and this level gets reduced by 0.5% annually, all the way down to 9,285 kWh in year 20

I bet SunPower would have a hard time to match 0.5% reduction of guaranteed production over 20 years.

[russ]

We provide a Best Value Guarantee which means if you send me Sunpowers quote I will beat it. If the savings were equal, I would be shocked if you sided with Sunpower's agreement and a less qualified installer over our holistic solution.

How do you say "high pressure"salesman? One time 40 plus years back I took Kirby (vacuum cleaners) sales course -more or less by accident as I needed a job and they wouldn't say what it was about over the phone. They taught every trick in the book to put the customer on the spot and this sounds like that bunch. Never made one demonstration - I was ashamed of their BS line.

[Naptown]

The Sunpower warranty is backed by Sunpower not the local installer. If the installer is out of business they will continue to warrant the install and equipment.
Sunpower is also backed and the majority owned by one of the largest companies in the world. It escapes me at the moment but it is a large French oil company that owns the major share of them.

[gabrielrat]

Here is what SC said when I have the bad news...

Just a heads up since I assume you are looking into Sunpower and their local installer: We provide a Best Value Guarantee which means if you send me Sunpowers quote I will beat it. If the savings were equal, I would be shocked if you sided with Sunpower's agreement and a less qualified installer over our holistic solution.

I would wager a great deal that the installer (“Elite” or not) will be out of business in Los Angeles once the solar tax credit expires in 2016 and the rebate has dropped. Solar City has a low enough cost of capital to withstand the removal of both the tax credit and all rebates. Finally, Sunpower is actually reducing their size (stock price has dropped to $7.70) while we are growing rapidly and buoyed by two other rapidly growing companies (Tesla and Space X). Do not be wooed by fancy panels, there is so much more to a 20 year partnership.

Just my two cents...

[russ]

Leave it all on the roof? Those panels are an asset - some third party will buy them for peanuts and collect them.

[bonaire]

They're (IRS) going after SC now but I wonder why they let Moody's and others let hundreds of billions of AAA-rated mortgage backed securities tank the markets and economy back in late 2007. Could have used their scruitiny back then

Both are a big risk and rely heavily on the existing federal tax credits and other incentive programs. We can't assume they will be around for 20 years. If SC should fail, thereis a good chance that the homeowner makes out well as they stop collecting their lease payments. Perhaps they have some underwriting company out there that would continue to service the leases until they runout. They would probably then just leave the aging equipment on the house at the end. Big issue is would they support inverter replacement during the active lease period.

[bobfromnj]

SolarCity a poor choice

[QUOTE=
I would put my money on Sunpower, Better off financially, (As a Company)[/QUOTE]

Sorry about the length of this but the first article is about 6 months old and the second one faily recent why there stock is a poor choice. They also use inferior material and have been known for poor workmanship. Sunpower is your best bet.

Sounds like SolarCity is not a very financially stable company. This was on the Internet as reported by the NY Times.
Solar panel installer SolarCity Corp filed with U.S. regulators to raise up to $201 million in an initial public offering. (IPO)
The company's total revenue was $46.6 million in the three months ended June 30, compared with $13 million a year earlier. It said it had an accumulated deficit of $70.3 million as of June 30
In addition, SolarCity said it was notified this month that the Internal Revenue Service is conducting audits of two of its investment funds, including a review of the solar installations that applied for a popular government cash grant program.
"If ... the Internal Revenue Service determines that the valuations were incorrect and that our investment funds received U.S. Treasury grants in excess of the amounts to which they were entitled, we could be subject to tax liabilities, including interest and penalties, and we could be required to make indemnity payments to the fund investors," the company said in the SEC filing
The company is losing money: In 2011, the company had net losses of $73.7 million, up from $47 million in 2010


SOLARCITY: Bad Investment?

Based on the company’s road show, it appears that SolarCity’s leases are like alarm system leases. That is, you keep them forever. Even if you move.
This setup presents some natural problems. What if you move from a house you own to an apartment? The solar system can’t move with you. What if you die before your lease is up?
There’s very little chance that customers will actually stick around for the full 20 years. And since this is such a new offering, there’s no way to estimate the stickiness of customers. So unless you have faith in Wall Street being too conservative, chances are, SolarCity’s management underestimates this impact. So there will be much higher costs associated with contract cancellations.
These aren’t the only problems SolarCity faces when it comes to customers. It also must contend with credit risk.
I know everyone swears that utilities are the most recession-resistant and credit-irrelevant businesses in the world. After all, everyone pays to keep the lights on. But SolarCity isn’t a utility.
Remember, customers put no money down to have a solar power system installed. Afterwards, they’re still connected to the traditional power grid.
So what’s stopping them from stiffing SolarCity? Absolutely nothing. SolarCity might be able to remotely disable the system, but it can’t turn off a customer’s power completely.
Bottom line: SolarCity has no leverage to force customers to honor their contracts. And if customers stop paying, it means that the cash flows intended for institutional investors take a hit.
This is a bad debt problem just waiting to happen.
Investors don’t always behave rationally, so shares of SolarCity could certainly enjoy a post-IPO bounce. But it promises to be short-lived given all the risks threatening the company’s business model. So I’d add SolarCity to your list of potential stocks to sell short, not buy

[Naptown]

Bottom line is the Sunpower modules degrade less over time than almost any other brand.
If SC is quoting poly's count on them losing about 3% output in the first month and stabilize from there.
The SP's don't have that initial drop and seemingly are allowing a bit of room left over for perhaps a hot water system in the future.
Lease costs vs production are about as equal as you can get.
I would put my money on Sunpower, Better off financially, (As a Company), been around forever far superior equipment.
And the buy out clause allows you to purchase the system.

[SoCalsolar]

These are close but

These are close but if you look at the guaranteed production stated in the actual lease docs which you ought to get from each company the SP production will decrease at a lower rate than whatever panel SC will use (They don't specify the make and model in the contract). What I am saying is that the production over the twenty year term will be higher with SP not just because of size. SP guarantees 84-87% production after 25 years. Looks like you might be LADWP service area I heard some rumblings about a feed in tariff for you folks. Did you explore a purchase option? You can usually finance it for much less than the lease and there is a specific LA based credit union that offers some solar financing. Private Message me if you would like further details. Oh and check the rate at which they will compensate any under production. I want to say that SP is about 1 or 2 cents higher you need to see the lease docs this is too close to call without them. One last consideration is your lifestyle. Is it likely that you will use more power in the future, less power or the same? One example would be you have teenagers and they might be leaving the nest leaving you with fewer people in the home for the majority of the lease which usually leads to a reduction in your consumption. With the lease you pay for power whether you use it or not. LADWP if you take a month long vacation and shut down all the devices in your home your bill will drop not so with the lease.

And for all you "rates aren't going up that much!!!" guys the link below is an article from Nov 2012 detailing the 3 rate increase granted to SCE by our PUC. It's in about the 4th paragraph. Just in case you aren't much of a reader As of Jan 1st 2013 they are implementing a retroactive 5% increase for 2012. That's not a typo folks the 2012 rates were increased an average of 5% in January of 2013. Yes that is the good news because the 2013 increase averages 6.3% and the 2014 will be 5.9%. So unless our multi-Billion dollar power company grows a conscience SCE residential rates are going up on average 17.2% in the next two years. This is why solar works in California. Greedy politicians, Greedy Utility company's and an uneducated lethargic public. However it is sunny and 73 degrees today. The only way in California to pay what Texans pay for electricity is solar power and 6-10 years.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/29/business/la-fi-edison-rate-hike-20121130

[gabrielrat]

Does that mean something?

Probably not. Seems like I have it figured out.

I was just looking for some "color" on choosing SunPower vs SolarCity.

Bottom line for me is that I would be getting better panels with SunPower, but if there was something I was missing on SolarCity being better, or SunPower leases being unfavorable vs. SC, etc...

[russ]

but my local "Elite Dealer" said they go through Citibank.

Does that mean something?

[gabrielrat]

But is the added power worth more than $10 per month? As the power bill fluctuates onto the future, the added output may be more offsetting to a rising power bill cost per kWh over 20 years. Not as extreme as they speculate of 4.8%, of course.

Maybe SC can increase their system size to match? They'll be using perhaps a lower tier module.

Both SC and SP are guaranteeing output or will compensate. Also fully insured. SC is maxing my roof with their 19 panels, so it seems that that is the best they can do.

What I am hearing this all come down to is which company I am more comfortable with SC or SP. I don't mind spending the extra $ if SP Panels are FAR superior and will produce more.

I asked to see an actual lease for SP, which I dont have in my hands yet, but my local "Elite Dealer" said they go through Citibank.

[bonaire]

But is the added power worth more than $10 per month? As the power bill fluctuates onto the future, the added output may be more offsetting to a rising power bill cost per kWh over 20 years. Not as extreme as they speculate of 4.8%, of course.

Maybe SC can increase their system size to match? They'll be using perhaps a lower tier module.

[Tezz]

SunPower is 16.7% more expensive while provide 14.7% more power output then SolarCity.

SolarCity is nationwide leader in residential solar installations, and by huge margin. Plus they are growing real fast.

Up to you to decide who you will choose, but ask both company following questions:

1) What is guaranteed system output in kWh at year 10 and year 20 of the lease?
2) If SunPower or SolarCity fail to meet guaranteed system output, how much they pay as a compensation?

[Ian S]

Assuming the lease payments remain constant for the entire lease (you must confirm but that's how they read to me), you will always be paying $10 a month more for the Sunpower lease. HOWEVER, the Sunpower system should generate about 1000 kWh more per year. @$0.12 per kWh, that's about a saving of $120/ year in electric bill or about $10/mo. So cost wise, the two proposals appear virtually identical. Because of Sunpower's reputation for top quality, it gets the edge. You should confirm that the SP lease also includes full insurance coverage for damage/loss.