Solar Panel Layouts

[Ampster]

Here is a quote from an older state report about energy consumption in California:

"California's total energy consumption is second-highest in the nation, but, in 2016, the state's per capita energy consumption ranked 48th, due in part to its mild climate and its energy efficiency programs"

No doubt there has already been a shift since 2016 but my understanding is there is still plenty of capacity in natural gas fired generation. In that sense we are better off than Germany. Fortunately Denmark can use natural gas from its North Sea fields. Their reliance on renewable energy has not resulted in a grid that is unreliable.

I respect the 40 years of Power Industry experience that @SunEagle brings to this discussion. I hope that the same expertise pervades the CPUC, CEC and CAISO so that their future decisions prevent the "sky is falling" scenerios expressed here.

[Ampster]

So why spread unsubstantiated B.S. from some peddler who has probably moved on to flipping burgers for an existence and still doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground with respect to most anything including historical residential electricity rate structures ?
......

I agree one should not rely on a salesperson's statements.

However using BLS averages says nothing about trends locally as far as rates. Earlier I posted a report that indicated, in your own backyard, SDG&E baseline rates have increased 106% since 2009. We also have previously discussed the proposed 200% increase in their fixed rate. Certainly these are cherry picked examples but worth considering when trying to evaluate whether rates will go up.

While this may seem a hijack, I think it is relevant to the philosophical question of whether it makes sense to over panel as a hedge.

[J.P.M.]

According to this report SDG&E electric baseline rates have increased 106% since 2009

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...dCRNgPIRR4mhx7

BLS averages are just averages. It all depends on where you are standing. I expect to see PG&E rates go up because of liabilities for wildfires.

Yes it does depend on where you are standing. The BLS #'s are indeed averages of one sort. So are all the numbers and information in the tables from the sources you quoted (which I do not dispute).

Your reporting on SDG & E baseline rates is, IMO, a good example of selectively picking where to stand.

I chose the EIA data as having the greatest general applicability over the U.S., which includes a lot of non CA posters, not simply one state or one POCO or one aspect of one rate. In that context, seems to me your statement that BLS averages are just averages seems more than a bit banal. Averages are just averages ? A blinding flash of the obvious.

My point was to Dr. Lumen's figure of 10 %/yr. annual increase over 30 years. Your source reinforces my opinion that Dr. Lumen's claim is B.S., regardless of its origin.

With respect to SDG & E residential prices paid per delivered kWh over a total bill and at close to neighborhood level, and looking at it since 2006, residential rates per kWh overall in my HOA have increased per year an average of ~ 5.7%/yr., from ~ $0.1458/kWh average overall rate at the end of 2006 to ~ 0.3060/kWh average overall rate at the end of 2019, with the quoted ave. rates/kWh compounded annually. Before 2014, that annual increase averaged ~ 3.9 %/yr. from 2003 to 2014. After 2014, the effect of (what the CPUC called) artificially suppressed baseline rates was mitigated, baseline rates and so overall bills for low usage customers increased. That was responsible for some of that 5.7 % increase around my HOA but the generally high usage around here of ~ 15 -18,000 kWh/yr. somewhat ironically shielded a lot of my neighbors from a lot of the increase in baseline rates.

Interestingly, for me anyway, and contrary to common thinking, was finding out that actual total per kWh rates paid by my neighbors paid actually went down in 3 of the 12 years, 2003 - 2014. I spent some time confirming that because I didn't believe it myself.

Also interesting, to me anyway, but not very surprising once I rooted around enough in the data, was that - at least for the time periods I looked at - how much of an increase or decrease an individual user saw year over year for the same usage and usage pattern was at least partly (usage). That is, and in general, relatively large users had lower annual increases in their total per kWh charges than did lower electrical users.

Part of the point of all that, which you can take or leave as you choose, is to your comment and point that "It all depends on where you are standing" comment. I believe I appreciate the difference between the general and specific.

[DrLumen]

So why spread unsubstantiated B.S. from some peddler who has probably moved on to flipping burgers for an existence and still doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground with respect to most anything including historical residential electricity rate structures ?

Nice vetting.

You believe everything you're told without a common sense sniff test to see if it makes any sense ?

BTW, do you know anything about residential electricity rates besides what you hear and repeat from anywhere/anyone?

Have an opinion. But also have some consideration for others who can easily be misled by such B.S.

I'd respectfully suggest you use any critical thinking skills you may have and engage your brain before your keyboard.

Flame off.

You do realize that I knowingly entered it was 'aggressive' for a reason. By the same token, it may be actual in some circumstances. If you take the rate increase that Ampster gave, that would be about 10.6% per year. I don't think he would lie about those rates to support me. So, is it really BS if it has happened?

And no, I don't believe everything I read or hear but, like I do here, I generally defer to people that supposedly know. So, to the burger flipper you refer to, I was skeptical as to his numbers. They also did not do my install. However, that same 'burger flipper' could easily be a member here.

I know how the residential rates work in Texas. I am also a bit versed in commercial rates. I also know about deregulation and that the PUC in Texas is practically toothless. My POCO was able to opt out of deregulation and they can set whatever rates they want without any oversight other than public outrage. How is that for you? Also, do you know what utility rates are across the world? Is it not even remotely possible that rates somewhere could have gone up 10% in a year? I'll bet somewhere it has happened.

Now, if you weren't so anal about it, you may have realized that I was just reminding that rates are not static and they will increase over 30 years. Do you think we can agree to that?

[Ampster]

You do realize that I knowingly entered it ........

Now, if you weren't so anal about it, you may have realized that I was just reminding that rates are not static and they will increase over 30 years. Do you think we can agree to that?

You hit the nail on the head with your characterization of those comments as anal. I tried to subtlety point out that some of those rate increases were in his back yard. But the response was essentially denial. I suspect he may be counting on the dividends from that same IOU for his retirement income so it may be hard for him to see the realities of the marketplace trends here in California with regard to the Investor Owned Utilities.

I believe we are in a a significant transition in how we generate, distribute and use energy in this Country and around the world. I don't know how it is going to end up but I am betting on the notion that it will be disruptive and until that settles out I am going to try to become as independent as I can. I feel fortunate to be able to implement those technologies that can make me independent.

Interestingly there are a lot of people on this forum that live off the grid and I have learned a lot from them. I also realize that currently, at least in California, it is still more economical to maintain a grid connection.

My apologies to the OP, about this hijack. I am sure fingers will be pointed at the usual suspects.

[J.P.M.]

You do realize that I knowingly entered it was 'aggressive' for a reason. By the same token, it may be actual in some circumstances. If you take the rate increase that Ampster gave, that would be about 10.6% per year. I don't think he would lie about those rates to support me. So, is it really BS if it has happened?

And no, I don't believe everything I read or hear but, like I do here, I generally defer to people that supposedly know. So, to the burger flipper you refer to, I was skeptical as to his numbers. They also did not do my install. However, that same 'burger flipper' could easily be a member here.

I know how the residential rates work in Texas. I am also a bit versed in commercial rates. I also know about deregulation and that the PUC in Texas is practically toothless. My POCO was able to opt out of deregulation and they can set whatever rates they want without any oversight other than public outrage. How is that for you? Also, do you know what utility rates are across the world? Is it not even remotely possible that rates somewhere could have gone up 10% in a year? I'll bet somewhere it has happened.

Now, if you weren't so anal about it, you may have realized that I was just reminding that rates are not static and they will increase over 30 years. Do you think we can agree to that?

In that citing a 106 % increase since 2009 Ampster quoted a CPUC report, he didn't lie about anything. He did do a little cherry picking IMO in that he quoted an increase in BASELINE rates for one utility, and then accuse me of drilling down when I referred to national EIA data and did so without either knowing or bothering to mention the somewhat unusual circumstances of how that dat he did quote on baseline rates came about, the details of which I briefly described in my post. Read Ampster's referenced report.

You may not believe everything you read or hear, but it appears you repeat it quite freely. That's one way B.S. becomes embedded in the common knowledge.

Think about the consequences of your actions and stop spreading B.S. you haven't checked. Not checking your sources and data before potentially leading others astray is rude and inconsiderate. Or continue doing it and expect to be called out for it.

BTW, where did your statement of a 10.6 % per year increase come from ?

According to the math I learned in 6th or 7th grade, a 106 % increase in anything compounded annually over 10 years works out to about a 7.5 % annual increase, not 10.6 %/yr. You may be a bit versed in commercial rates but you appear a bit ignorant in the math dept. We all make errors - me more than most - but I don't mouth off unless I'm pretty sure I know what I'm talking about. Try it. You may find getting the story and data right also helps you to not look foolish.

As for rates not being static, like the sun rising in the east, I believe we have all pretty much got that one figured out. I believe I do. If you're looking for some statement from me that we agree that rates will increase over the next 30 years, I'm a bit reluctant to agree with vague statements such as that. See my post for some examples of what's happening in my area in terms of rate CHANGES and compare that to the EIA data I referenced for a comparison to the national situation. I appreciate Ampster's attempts at subtlety, but I'm already pretty much up to date on CPUC issues and how they impact and have impacted the CA IOU's, particularly SDG & E as well as what seems to be happening on a national level.

I'll try to spell it out a bit for you. IMO, rates change. They always have and always will. Probably for longer than the 30 years into the future you seem to be limiting yourself to. Somewhat contrary to popular opinion, I've found my local rates actually have gone down in several prior years, but that the general trend is up is a no brainer and IMO, not worthy of much discussion. I also have no proof or data but only an educated guess that my local situation is not that much different than a lot of other (but probably not all) areas with respect to rate fluctuation in both directions up and down. I'm also of the opinion that rates are very subject to global, national, regional and local market forces as well as social and political pressures and influence.

To believe rates don't change or that they are monolithic across more than a very small area and for short time periods is simply the ludicrous folly of a fool. Thank you for reminding us all that rates are not static. That's news huh ?

As for being anal, I've been called worse. Opinions vary. A few of the mostly engineers I've worked with and/or supervised over the years seem to have confused me for an ancient Greek king - I could tell that from the word they sometimes put in front of my name. But if you think I'm anal I figured out that you may actually be better at making that determination than others. Reason: It's because you really are a doctor as your handle states - of Proctology.

At least I know enough to keep my fingers still when I'm out of my area of proficiency and don't know something. You and Ampster might try it. The forum would be better off for the efforts.

Tell you what. How about a deal ? I'll keep being what you call anal when I call reality and truth to the B.S. you and Ampster puke out and stink up the place with and call you out for crap you post that's dumb and ignorant and in return give you and Ampster a target for your inanity if you shut up in things your ignorant about and so stop misleading people who swallow your ignorant blather and waste their time and money when they act on that stuff. You do that and I won't have any reason to call you out, meaning we won't need to exchange pleasantries and keep pissing each other off in the process. Sound like we all - especially other posters - win ?

[DrLumen]

Jesus H Christ...

Yes I know about compounded interest you two-bit, self-important, HOA hack! More nit-picking by an a-hole!

As to your deal, that is fine by me. You can have this forum to yourself along with the handful of overly caustic a-holes that frequent this place. If I want to spread dis-information there are many other sites with many, many, many more members for me to infect if I so chose. I also won't dress it up in some sanctimonious garbage labeled 'definitive research' gleaned from a tea cup! At least I QUALIFIED my statement that it was questionable. You feckin moron!

You got what you wanted. You have run another member off in the quest for a perfect forum. A forum populated by a-holes, like yourself, that demand sunshine pumped up their rump in the name of some solarific truth! You and Butch can go 'love' yourselves now.

As to others like bcroe, keep up the good work!

Mods, for the health and growth of your site, show the a-holes the door! Doesn't it make you wonder why new members may only post once or twice? The only reason I came back after a couple of posts is I have a fairly thick skin and some of this is still interesting to me. That curiosity is now somewhat tarnished by an HOA manager (pronounced douchebag).

(/mic drop)

[Ampster]

I believe you are correct in your prediction. Unless CA people can figure out a way to reduce their electrical usage I predict the lights will go out if they increase their dependence on renewable energy.

Here is some good news about the cost of batteries that might be positive for the outlook in California,
https://www.kqed.org/science/1951005...d-31087e140b10

On another note, I read that the largest solar farm was approved for a location in Nevada. It will sell Energy at $38.44 per megaWatthour. That amounts to $0.038 per kWh. The project includes batteries but details on how much battery capacity were not clear.

[SunEagle]

Here is some good news about the cost of batteries that might be positive for the outlook in California,
https://www.kqed.org/science/1951005...d-31087e140b10

On another note, I read that the largest solar farm was approved for a location in Nevada. It will sell Energy at $38.44 per megaWatthour. That amounts to $0.38 per kWh. The project includes batteries but details on how much battery capacity were not clear.

Great. So the cost of batteries are going down and POCO's will probably be adding them to their solar farms. I guess my question is how will the POCO's pass on the cost of this equipment to their consumers? Because you know they are tasked with keeping the lights on and will justify that to the PUC to get rate raises.

I really hope the CA POCO's get their act together because based on going with more renewable energy they do not have the equipment in place yet and may be hard to pay for it.

Oh I saw that data about the new Nevada solar farm. I wonder how much power will actually go to CA and at what rate. It certainly won't be that $0.38/kWh if CA really needs the power.

[Ampster]

Great. So the cost of batteries are going down and POCO's will probably be adding them to their solar farms. I guess my question is how will the POCO's pass on the cost of this equipment to their consumers? Because you know they are tasked with keeping the lights on and will justify that to the PUC to get rate raises.

Remember, in California, the power generation portion has for the most part been taken away from the IOUs. Private companies generally own the generating assets in California except for hydro and some peaker plants. Power is sold in the open market and usually under long term contracts.The cost of those contracts has been going down because of the growth of lower cost renewables. Most of the large solar farms now being constructed include batteries so they can ride through times when there is solar curtailment. That way they can charge the batteries during those times and sell the power as the solar ramps down.

The biggest factor in causing rate increases is the cost of maintaining the grid infrastructure and updating it to be more bidirectional.. That is the biggest challenge facing California not capacity. There is still plenty of baseline natural gas capacity.

I really hope the CA POCO's get their act together because based on going with more renewable energy they do not have the equipment in place yet and may be hard to pay for it.

I hope so too. Some if the equipment the California IOUs have to put in place are the control and switching gear that will enable them to more effectively manage power that is bidirectional or coming from mutltiple distributed sources rather that the centralized system that we have had in the past.

Oh I saw that data about the new Nevada solar farm. I wonder how much power will actually go to CA and at what rate. It certainly won't be that $0.38/kWh if CA really needs the power.

That Nevada solar farm won't be selling any of that power to California. Its output is committed to Nevada Energy. California has plenty of renewable capacity during the day. What California needs to do is to deal with the neck of the duck curve by either getting people to shift loads or to have more generation that can ramp quickly. Most of the peaker plants that could do that will become idle as batteries fill in that ramp up until the combined cycle plants can ramp up, That is a much more efficient and cleaner scenerio than running a peaker plant. That is why no peakers have been built in the past few years.

[J.P.M.]

Here is some good news about the cost of batteries that might be positive for the outlook in California,

https://www.kqed.org/science/1951005/the-cost-of-battery-storage-plummets-at-the-right-moment-for-california?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=e9728bc9-ffd2-42e3-acad-31087e140b10

On another note, I read that the largest solar farm was approved for a location in Nevada. It will sell Energy at $38.44 per megaWatthour. That amounts to $0.38 per kWh. The project includes batteries but details on how much battery capacity were not clear.

You want to check your math on that per kW/ cost ??

[Ampster]

You want to check your math on that per kW/ cost ??

Thanks, that would correctly be less than $0.04 per kWh which is competitive with Natural Gas.

[J.P.M.]

Thanks, that would correctly be less than $0.04 per kWh which is competitive with Natural Gas.

You're welcome.