Solar Panel Layouts

[dave01978]

Wow lots to chew on here, LEts start off topic, thats awsome you got 3 games in, I have not been to one yet this year. I'm a short little drive from naperville / Aurora (just a town north of me)
As far as payback, this is based on just the numbers they gave me, which is not far off from PVWatts. Here is my breakdown
DC Size 10,080W
Cash Price, $28946
Federal Tax Credit -$8684
Illinois SREC -$13689.00 (this is there number) Illinois provides it upfront on 15year upfront payment.
Total $6573
Since it comes back in stages I will be doing a loan, found a credit union that does a 70% and 30% loan, however 3 of the guys like it will not take there terms (the 30% is a baloon loan due within 1 year @ 6APR) the 70% is a 12year with a 6% APR It is a UCC1 filing on the panels and there fees are $25 application, + cost of the filing (likely around $400 each on the high side) They pay 30% down, the 70% at completion, and no one wants to do that. So I can do a 15K unsecured loan at 7.99% (no fees) then refinance into the 70% loan.
Basically going thru all that after all fees and everything I am in at around 10K total reinvesting all incentives, and making the roughly $200 payment a month, will drop the term down to 46 months to have it paid off the breakeven point is 7.75 Years (using an power savings of $1430 per year) I figured leave $15month for metering and customer fees.
I will have to research the hourly net metering more, but I can certainly do 1kWh-1kWh
I've coppied part of my spread sheet, which started as a loan amortization sheet that I modified, and I coppied this so I can see each quote in this format, and have a summary sheet that I can throw some key numbers in. I will need to do the Tax Credit over 2 years.(20 year kWh math is based on 0.54% yearly degradation. (this number also does not account for the $800-$100 for the UCC1 filing fees, however I did the payback, and the 20yr eneregy cost based on $10K system price.

ENTER VALUES				LOAN SUMMARY								Cash Price	$28,946.00
Loan amount		$20,262.20		Scheduled payment		$197.73		Net System Cost (post incentive		$6,573.20		SREC	$13,689.00
Annual interest rate		6.00%		Scheduled number of payments		144		30% Loan Interest		$740.97		FTC	$8,683.80
Loan period in years		12		Actual number of payments		46		70% Loan Interes		$1,609.19		FTC YEAR 1	$
Number of payments per year		12		Total early payments		$12,948.04		Total Cost of System		$8,923.36		FTC YEAR 2	$
Start date of loan		8/5/2019		Total interest		$1,609.19		DC SIZE		10,080		Year 1 Incet
								Year 1 production		12,732		30% LN PMT	$9,424.77
Optional extra payments		$0.00		LENDER NAME				cost Per kWh (20 yr math)		$0.04088		Year 1 Inct left
								Cost Per Watt (pre incentive)		$2.87

Panel layout will be maybee as follows depending on what fits, look like this one may work with 18 Panels at almost south @around 36deg, 8West, and 6 East these are 315W Hanwha panels

Snow I do not plan on clearing as its a pretty good size pitch and 2nd floor roof. However around here snow typically does not stay around on the roof to long, as slightly furth north gets dumped with more typically, but I totally understand. Looked up and see the one response was south of rockford, and I am willing to bet they get a bit more snow then us, but am interested is hearing his numbers over the winter months.

Hopefully I explained things somewhat clearly, my wife usually says i speak in fraction of sentences, and don't explain things well.

[Markyrocks69]

you keep mixing before incentive and after incentive $/w

if you are interested in SRECs (which I don't know you you are not already since you seem very fixated on ROI) then check out: https://srectrade.com/

I think it is $32 but was $12 just last year You should generated enough to pay off the registration and meter fees quickly and then all profit. ( not much but still something).

The mixing is usually a result of the fact that if I had to pay a solar company it really doesn't matter b4 or after incentives bc the roi is so long I'd be dead b4 ever making a dollar.

I'm fixated on roi ...like who isn't? I'm all for the environment, I don't litter, but I don't have money like that to not be concerned with roi. I don't make huge numbers but with the lifestyle decisions I've made youd think I made alot more. In the last 9 months I've spent close to 6 months salary on this pv system, so ya I better start getting some of that money back bc idk how much further I can stretch my paychecks.

for the record I'm not getting any younger and this pv system is basically my first big investment towards my retirement. I'm 36 now so I need to start saving for retirement and I figured this would be a good investment in my future ect.

But thanks for the information.

[bcroe]

I'm a short little drive from naperville / Aurora (just a town north of me)

Illinois SREC -$13689.00 (this is there [their] number) Illinois provides it upfront on 15 year upfront payment.

Snow I do not plan on clearing as its a pretty good size pitch and 2nd floor roof. However around here snow typically does not stay around on the roof to long, as slightly furth north gets dumped with more typically, but I totally understand. Looked up and see the one response was south of rockford, and I am willing to bet they get a bit more snow then us, but am interested is hearing his numbers over the winter months.

I can tell you plenty of snow stories about Naperville/Aurora where I worked/lived for decades.
I do not see much difference near Rockford, Plainfield may be similar, though it did seem to get
the tornadoes that just missed Aurora.

Every time I ask about IL SRECs, it goes nowhere. I would check this out very carefully. The state
tax credit is on a lottery system, no guarantee it will come through.

My Dec solar KWH are about 1/3 my June KWH because of short days and clouds, I do not let
snow interfere.
good luck, Bruce Roe

[dave01978]

I can tell you plenty of snow stories about Naperville/Aurora where I worked/lived for decades.
I do not see much difference near Rockford, Plainfield may be similar, though it did seem to get
the tornadoes that just missed Aurora.

Every time I ask about IL SRECs, it goes nowhere. I would check this out very carefully. The state
tax credit is on a lottery system, no guarantee it will come through.

My Dec solar KWH are about 1/3 my June KWH because of short days and clouds, I do not let
snow interfere.
good luck, Bruce Roe

I know the further north we go it typically gets more, Naperville Aurora typically is about the same as us. My observations from what I seen but not really checking it out especially since this last winter I really had no plans to do this.
Most of the production estimates seem to show similar numbers, I will not be fighting snow, so I know to expect less, hopefully it won't hurt the yearly total to much. I think I had one quote that actually spelled it out in numbers and there June / July as 1273/1286 and Dec Jan 486/530 so there number is not quite 1/3 but sound accurate.

I've been told over and over the auction, is for systems over 10kW and that the below 10kW was plenty of space available right now (thats a huge incentive to doing this, without that will make it not cost effective at all)

I certainly appreciate the information.

[J.P.M.]

Wow lots to chew on here, LEts start off topic, thats awsome you got 3 games in, I have not been to one yet this year. I'm a short little drive from naperville / Aurora (just a town north of me)
As far as payback, this is based on just the numbers they gave me, which is not far off from PVWatts. Here is my breakdown
DC Size 10,080W
Cash Price, $28946
Federal Tax Credit -$8684
Illinois SREC -$13689.00 (this is there number) Illinois provides it upfront on 15year upfront payment.
Total $6573
Since it comes back in stages I will be doing a loan, found a credit union that does a 70% and 30% loan, however 3 of the guys like it will not take there terms (the 30% is a baloon loan due within 1 year @ 6APR) the 70% is a 12year with a 6% APR It is a UCC1 filing on the panels and there fees are $25 application, + cost of the filing (likely around $400 each on the high side) They pay 30% down, the 70% at completion, and no one wants to do that. So I can do a 15K unsecured loan at 7.99% (no fees) then refinance into the 70% loan.
Basically going thru all that after all fees and everything I am in at around 10K total reinvesting all incentives, and making the roughly $200 payment a month, will drop the term down to 46 months to have it paid off the breakeven point is 7.75 Years (using an power savings of $1430 per year) I figured leave $15month for metering and customer fees.
I will have to research the hourly net metering more, but I can certainly do 1kWh-1kWh
I've coppied part of my spread sheet, which started as a loan amortization sheet that I modified, and I coppied this so I can see each quote in this format, and have a summary sheet that I can throw some key numbers in. I will need to do the Tax Credit over 2 years.(20 year kWh math is based on 0.54% yearly degradation. (this number also does not account for the $800-$100 for the UCC1 filing fees, however I did the payback, and the 20yr eneregy cost based on $10K system price.

ENTER VALUES				LOAN SUMMARY								Cash Price	$28,946.00
Loan amount		$20,262.20		Scheduled payment		$197.73		Net System Cost (post incentive		$6,573.20		SREC	$13,689.00
Annual interest rate		6.00%		Scheduled number of payments		144		30% Loan Interest		$740.97		FTC	$8,683.80
Loan period in years		12		Actual number of payments		46		70% Loan Interes		$1,609.19		FTC YEAR 1	$
Number of payments per year		12		Total early payments		$12,948.04		Total Cost of System		$8,923.36		FTC YEAR 2	$
Start date of loan		8/5/2019		Total interest		$1,609.19		DC SIZE		10,080		Year 1 Incet
								Year 1 production		12,732		30% LN PMT	$9,424.77
Optional extra payments		$0.00		LENDER NAME				cost Per kWh (20 yr math)		$0.04088		Year 1 Inct left
								Cost Per Watt (pre incentive)		$2.87

Panel layout will be maybee as follows depending on what fits, look like this one may work with 18 Panels at almost south @around 36deg, 8West, and 6 East these are 315W Hanwha panels

Snow I do not plan on clearing as its a pretty good size pitch and 2nd floor roof. However around here snow typically does not stay around on the roof to long, as slightly furth north gets dumped with more typically, but I totally understand. Looked up and see the one response was south of rockford, and I am willing to bet they get a bit more snow then us, but am interested is hearing his numbers over the winter months.

Hopefully I explained things somewhat clearly, my wife usually says i speak in fraction of sentences, and don't explain things well.

Thank you for the response and information.

SREC's, financing and other considerations are examples of how things can get complicated in a hurry.

To me, your situation is a good example of the need to get informed and educated as it seems you are doing. Not a simple task, but not insurmountable. Without the work, it'll be easy for con men to take advantage of the ignorance.

[dave01978]

Ok Figured I would update this post. Ended up going with 32 Canadian Solar 330W Black on Black panels as the Hanwha's Black on Black where not available. Finally got PTO on 12/23/19

PVOutput https://pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=78012
Solar Edge https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/site/public?name=PLAINFIELD%2060586%2010.5kw&locale=en_ US#/dashboard

18 South Panels, 7 east, and 7 WestSolar.JPG
The layout I did on the solar edge site designer and is not an actual layout but close enough. Pretty happy with everything, all electric is going thru the attic and nothing exposed on the roof. Production is really a mix here this time of year, But really enjoying it so far.

[DrLumen]

Just a reminder, you may be paying 0.1275 per kWh now but that could very likely go up in the following years. That is one reason I added solar even though mine is only about .11 per kWh currently. A 10% yearly increase (somewhat aggressive) over the next 30 years could get really costly.

[J.P.M.]

Just a reminder, you may be paying 0.1275 per kWh now but that could very likely go up in the following years. That is one reason I added solar even though mine is only about .11 per kWh currently. A 10% yearly increase (somewhat aggressive) over the next 30 years could get really costly.

10%/yr. is indeed more than a bit aggressive. Do you know of any places or any POCOs that have had an inflation adjusted 17 fold increase in the residential per kWh price of electricity price over the last 30 years ?

I appreciate that past outcomes do not predict or mandate the future, but as a gross overview, the BLS seems to think that electricity has undergone an 86.4 % increase or ~ 2.1 %/yr. annual inflation rate since 1989.

From the same source, the BLS, the overall average general inflation rate for the same period was 2.44%/yr., meaning that unless you live in the world of alternate facts (and I'd suggest alternate realities), in terms of actual costs, compared to other goods and commodities, electricity has gotten cheaper over the last 30 years. That would seem to make a 10 %/yr. real energy inflation rate less likely to my way of looking at probabilities for future energy costs.

[Ampster]

According to this report SDG&E electric baseline rates have increased 106% since 2009

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...dCRNgPIRR4mhx7

BLS averages are just averages. It all depends on where you are standing. I expect to see PG&E rates go up because of liabilities for wildfires.

[DrLumen]

I used the 10% as that was one of the numbers that was slung at me by one of the installer's salesman. Some have seen electricity get a bit cheaper (compared to inflation) due to more natural gas production and conversion of power plants to NG. Some will also blame fracking for that... But anyway, as we know, that is not sustainable in the long run.

I can't imagine what is going to happen to PG&E. They are between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Not to get political but CA is going to have to decide whether they want to hug trees or want electricity. Ok, flame on.

[SunEagle]

I used the 10% as that was one of the numbers that was slung at me by one of the installer's salesman. Some have seen electricity get a bit cheaper (compared to inflation) due to more natural gas production and conversion of power plants to NG. Some will also blame fracking for that... But anyway, as we know, that is not sustainable in the long run.

I can't imagine what is going to happen to PG&E. They are between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Not to get political but CA is going to have to decide whether they want to hug trees or want electricity. Ok, flame on.

I believe you are correct in your prediction. Unless CA people can figure out a way to reduce their electrical usage I predict the lights will go out if they increase their dependence on renewable energy.

[Ampster]

........
Unless CA people can figure out a way to reduce their electrical usage I predict the lights will go out if they increase their dependence on renewable energy.

That is stretch logic. The power outages that we have been having in California have had nothing to do with renewable energy. Parts of the grid had been shut down purposely to prevent wildfires. PG&E in particular has deferred a lot of maintenance. For example the last big fire was cause by a transmission tower that fell over in high winds and the sparks caused a fire.
Germany and Denmark have more reliance on renewable energy that California and their grids are no less reliable.

[SunEagle]

That is stretch logic. The power outages that we have been having in California have had nothing to do with renewable energy. Parts of the grid had been shut down purposely to prevent wildfires. PG&E in particular has deferred a lot of maintenance. For example the last big fire was cause by a transmission tower that fell over in high winds and the sparks caused a fire.
Germany and Denmark have more reliance on renewable energy that California and their grids are no less reliable.

Based on my 40+ years in the electrical power industry a state and population as large as CA will run the risk of having power outages of varied length if they continue to increase their reliance on renewable energy. There is a tipping point when renewable will not be available 24/7 or during peak usage times.

Based on what Germany is doing, I believe they run up the coal powered generating stations when neither solar or wind is available so I really wouldn't use them to compare to US consumption.

Remember we are talking about a 24/7 process which will be very hard to deliver unless a wide verity of power generating units are employed across the state or can be delivered across state lines. There just isn't enough power storage to handle long blackouts unless people learn to significantly reduce their consumption.

[J.P.M.]

I used the 10% as that was one of the numbers that was slung at me by one of the installer's salesman. Some have seen electricity get a bit cheaper (compared to inflation) due to more natural gas production and conversion of power plants to NG. Some will also blame fracking for that... But anyway, as we know, that is not sustainable in the long run.

I can't imagine what is going to happen to PG&E. They are between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Not to get political but CA is going to have to decide whether they want to hug trees or want electricity. Ok, flame on.

So why spread unsubstantiated B.S. from some peddler who has probably moved on to flipping burgers for an existence and still doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground with respect to most anything including historical residential electricity rate structures ?

Nice vetting.

You believe everything you're told without a common sense sniff test to see if it makes any sense ?

BTW, do you know anything about residential electricity rates besides what you hear and repeat from anywhere/anyone?

Have an opinion. But also have some consideration for others who can easily be misled by such B.S.

I'd respectfully suggest you use any critical thinking skills you may have and engage your brain before your keyboard.

Flame off.

[Mike90250]

I believe you are correct in your prediction. Unless CA people can figure out a way to reduce their electrical usage I predict the lights will go out if they increase their dependence on renewable energy.

State courts & PUC (public utilities commission) just approved city's ability to ban natural gas in new construction, leaving new construction to be all electric.

( They've never eaten at Joes Beanery. )