Help me decide between two bids

[branflakecereal]

Hello, everyone.

Brand new to solar, and considering two bids after some fairly lengthy research. Both bids include a hybrid water heater, and the numbers are pre tax credit.

First is a 8.6kw system from Sunpower that is estimated to put out 13150kw a year (24 panels, all south facing). Comes with micro inverters. Total cost is 33000.

Second is a 10.2kw system from GCI (early 2018 production date) panels. Estimated 14000kw a year (22 south facing panels, 10 west). Using two string inverters. Shade is not an issue. Total cost is 30200.

Anyone have any input as to which, of any, I should go with? This is in Florida, by the way. Thanks!

[RenewablesRock]

How will you ever get your money back on that investment? That's like a lifetime of electricity to pay for that. How do people come up with these crazy high quotes?!?! I could have paid $4k for 10 Kw of panels alone. I paid $2k for my 5 Kw so far. I find it hard to believe that to mount my panels and put a grid tie inverter and battery would cost anywhere near that. I know it wouldn't be cheap, but not the price of large SUV to do so.

[J.P.M.]

Before I start, did your research include reading a copy of "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies" ? and have you done your own system modeling with PVWatts yet. If not, I'd respectfully suggest your research, while it may be lengthy, is still incomplete.

So, you will pay ~ 10 % more for less output from Sunpower. Bet you swallowed the Sunpower koolaid - the "most efficient" garbage and "best warranty" junk right ? If so, another tip off that your research may need to get a bit lengthier.

Reality starter: All equally sized systems in the same location and orientation using quality components and competently installed by real professionals will put out about equal amounts of electricity on an annual basis for as long or longer than you are likely to own one. That includes Sunpower and any other quality product.

Sunpower is good stuff, but no better than other quality equipment. Sunpower simply costs more for no discernable and verifiable advantage beyond bragging rights that you overpaid for a PV system to help pay for their slick and IMO less than honest advertising.

Pay as much attention to the quality of the installer as the quality of the product. Beyond some basic quality level, panels are a commodity these days. Good installers are not. They can be scarce and they are getting more scarce as net metering is not as sweet a deal as previously making PV less cost effective. They are the difference between a good job and a poor job.

Also, forget about the first cost syndrome. There's a big difference between low first cost and most bang for your buck. The two are not the same.

Also, although it's a small sample size, a couple of posters are reporting problems with the Sunpower micro equipped systems. I haven't heard (yet) if the problem is more widespread than generally known or not.

The price you report is probably in the ballpark for a turnkey system. As for how cost effective owning a PV system may be depends on a lot of factors including and mostly, how much you pay for a kWh of electricity now, what are the terms of the net metering agreement with your POCO, what's a realistic outlook on how electricity rates may change in the future, and what else could you do with the money spent on PV that might be a better return on investment.

Why only two bids ?

[branflakecereal]

I actually have a third bid that was uncompetitively more expensive. My utility allows for net metering up to 115% of what I actually consume, averaged out over the year. As far as the Sunpower PR goes, to a certain extent, you're right. Mainly the warranty difference was the appeal, as I know replacing inverters is pricy.

All three companies I did get quotes from are reputable, old companies. Think the newest of them was founded in '80

Our power rates are not absurdly high here, but at least for the next 4 years, they are confirmed to be rising 4%/yr, and I pay about 158/mo for my bill. My quote for the larger system is projected to pay for everything but the 8 dollar meter fee.

I'm honestly fairly unfazed by the initial cost as long as I'm going to make it back in the long run. And again, getting 30% of it back in the credit makes it easier to swallow.

My biggest concern as someone with no experience with solar ownership is long term hidden cost. Replacing inverters, and the like.

Also, while I have not read the Dummies book yet, I did run these two systems through pvwatts as best I could. The 10.2 system actually overperformed my quoted numbers, though I suspect that's because 10 panels have to go west facing due to roof space. The Sunpower system is about on target.

[RenewablesRock]

Warranties no longer impress me since I've seen so many companies go out of business. You need something where you get an ROI in about 3-4 years, not 15-20+. These people are taking advantage of everyone. You can bet nobody in India is paying anywhere close to $20-30k for a roof full of solar panels. So why should we?!

[emartin00]

Both bids include a hybrid water heater

How much of the cost are they claiming is coming from the water heater? A hybrid water heater should cost $1000-$1500 plus maybe a few hundred for installation.

Unfortunately the solar market in florida is still pretty rough, so prices are higher than a lot of places.

[J.P.M.]

I actually have a third bid that was uncompetitively more expensive. My utility allows for net metering up to 115% of what I actually consume, averaged out over the year. As far as the Sunpower PR goes, to a certain extent, you're right. Mainly the warranty difference was the appeal, as I know replacing inverters is pricy.

All three companies I did get quotes from are reputable, old companies. Think the newest of them was founded in '80

Our power rates are not absurdly high here, but at least for the next 4 years, they are confirmed to be rising 4%/yr, and I pay about 158/mo for my bill. My quote for the larger system is projected to pay for everything but the 8 dollar meter fee.

I'm honestly fairly unfazed by the initial cost as long as I'm going to make it back in the long run. And again, getting 30% of it back in the credit makes it easier to swallow.

My biggest concern as someone with no experience with solar ownership is long term hidden cost. Replacing inverters, and the like.

Also, while I have not read the Dummies book yet, I did run these two systems through pvwatts as best I could. The 10.2 system actually overperformed my quoted numbers, though I suspect that's because 10 panels have to go west facing due to roof space. The Sunpower system is about on target.

1.) Your $$, your choice, but at $158/month = $1896/yr., and using the moron payback method, ($30,200*.7)/$1896 = 11.1 yrs. That's kind of a long time. Looks like your POCO rates are relatively low compared to places where PV is cost effective, and if that 4 %/yr. projected increase holds, your rates won't increase enough in the near term to improve the economics of owning PV all that much.

I'd respectfully suggest that if getting the most bang for your buck is one goal of the exercise, and that you, as someone with no experience in solar ownership, that your biggest concerns may be better directed to a serious look at whether or not PV is the best place to put or tie up ~ $21K after tax credit, before making PV ownership a foregone conclusion. Your rates are too low. Sort of like the situation of wanting an EV and paying a premium for it when gasoline costs ~ $1.00/gal. instead of $3/gallon.

2.) The warranty difference for Sunpower is bogus. As has been demonstrated for maybe the last, oh, say, 8 to 10 yrs. that PV has been mainstream, the equipment has been arguably and generally more reliable than might have been expected. Most failures, and there have been some, are often or mostly of the infant mortality type with failures usually occurring shortly after startup and often not equipment quality related - another reason to use quality installers. With anyone's string inverters, plan on replacing them at ~ 10 - 12 years.

3.) On your concerns over hidden costs hidden costs, while anything can happen, if you start with quality components and a quality vendor doing a professional installation and who's an established electrical contractor that's been around long before PV, you'll have the highest probability of fewer problems.

4.) On modeled performance vs. quoted performance, it was once common and probably still common for vendors to quote low annual output numbers. It makes life easier for vendors, sells more product, and because potential customers are mostly oblivious to what they're buying, underestimating performance leads to few(er) drawbacks to closing the sale or questions - it's way easier (and more successful from a sales standpoint) to push emotional buttons by pitching low or zero electrical bills than to watch potential customers' eyes glaze over while talking to them about real cost effectiveness.

Question: did you run PVWatts for each orientation and sum the results ? You do know that west facing panels will, in all likelihood not perform as well per STC kW as south facing panels ? Either or any way, with input that's reasonably representative of what's in service,the PV Watts numbers are probably good to ~ +/- 10 % or so on a long term (like a 10 year or so) average, mostly due to year/year weather variation.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

Good luck.

[branflakecereal]

Thanks for the input on all this. My biggest reason for thinking it could be a practical investment in my case is we just built the house as a "forever home", and my job situation is in no threat of moving (federal government), so I'm in the rare group of people who can actually wait 20 years for it to pay off. Otherwise I'd just take the cheap electricity and call it a day.

As far as the breakdown with the water heater, one is quoting 1500 installed, and my cheaper bid doesn't break down the numbers for how much of the bid is the heater.

[J.P.M.]

Thanks for the input on all this. My biggest reason for thinking it could be a practical investment in my case is we just built the house as a "forever home", and my job situation is in no threat of moving (federal government), so I'm in the rare group of people who can actually wait 20 years for it to pay off. Otherwise I'd just take the cheap electricity and call it a day.

As far as the breakdown with the water heater, one is quoting 1500 installed, and my cheaper bid doesn't break down the numbers for how much of the bid is the heater.

Understood.

Just as opinion, if the same end result in terms of quality, reliability and fit for purpose criteria for less initial cost can be had with some value applied to the hassle of obtaining and maintaining the equipment, then the lower initial cost is one criteria. That type of logic usually knocks Sunpower out of contention or consideration by folks who know something about alternate energy and aren't trying to sell Sunpower.

Another criteria or consideration for potential PV users is what else could be done with the assets that would result in having more money in your pocket at the end of "X" years, or a better ROI on the investment. For long term cost effectiveness, see some of the stuff NREL has, particularly with respect to something called Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Then compare the LCOE of the PV supplied electricity with the LCOE of an equal quantity of replaced grid tied electricity. For low(er) electricity costs such as you seem to have, and for usual and (more)realistic time frames, like 10 - 12 years for example, grid tied power often comes out lower cost than PV supplied electricity. The longer the time frame, usually the better PV looks. Given a long enough time frame, even Sunpower stuff can be made to look cost effective compared to grid power. That does not however, mean that PV will be as cost effective compared to other places to put the assets.

But, overall, life is a crap shoot, with analyses that rely on projections of future conditions to usually be less than rock solid.

Still when comparing alternatives, such as PV power vs. grid power, there is a fair case to be made for using such tools for comparing one investment to another (or others) for decision making purposes.

[NukeEngineer]

How will you ever get your money back on that investment? That's like a lifetime of electricity to pay for that. How do people come up with these crazy high quotes?!?! I could have paid $4k for 10 Kw of panels alone. I paid $2k for my 5 Kw so far. I find it hard to believe that to mount my panels and put a grid tie inverter and battery would cost anywhere near that. I know it wouldn't be cheap, but not the price of large SUV to do so.

This is what drove me to DIY my system. I got 4 quotes before jumping into the DIY, all in the $3+/watt installed. I could buy the equipment at about $1/watt for all of it. At 13kW, there was ZERO chance I was going to pay someone $26,000 to carry some stuff to the roof and screw down rails and panels (etc., you get the idea). I might have paid $5000 for the entire install labor (possibly....) but NO WAY was I spending $26,000 for what it took to self-install over a couple of weeks. I don't understand why solar companies think they are selling blue crystal meth! It's just roofer and electrician labor after all!

[J.P.M.]

This is what drove me to DIY my system. I got 4 quotes before jumping into the DIY, all in the $3+/watt installed. I could buy the equipment at about $1/watt for all of it. At 13kW, there was ZERO chance I was going to pay someone $26,000 to carry some stuff to the roof and screw down rails and panels (etc., you get the idea). I might have paid $5000 for the entire install labor (possibly....) but NO WAY was I spending $26,000 for what it took to self-install over a couple of weeks. I don't understand why solar companies think they are selling blue crystal meth! It's just roofer and electrician labor after all!

Opinions vary.

[RenewablesRock]

Unfortunately the solar market in florida is still pretty rough, so prices are higher than a lot of places.

Which makes ZERO sense at all. Everything from Orlando, south, should all be big time into solar. I almost never see solar panels on anyone's roof here. It's horrible. We should have a class action law suit against FPL for being a monopoly.

[RenewablesRock]

This is what drove me to DIY my system. I got 4 quotes before jumping into the DIY, all in the $3+/watt installed. I could buy the equipment at about $1/watt for all of it. At 13kW, there was ZERO chance I was going to pay someone $26,000 to carry some stuff to the roof and screw down rails and panels (etc., you get the idea). I might have paid $5000 for the entire install labor (possibly....) but NO WAY was I spending $26,000 for what it took to self-install over a couple of weeks. I don't understand why solar companies think they are selling blue crystal meth! It's just roofer and electrician labor after all!

Because people are not exposing their scams. Somebody needs to go out and say, "This is the bare bones cost for everything" and then expose the rip off profit. These people ARE THIEVES!!! You wouldn't buy a car from a dealer making $15k profit on one transaction. I wouldn't do it with a solar panel install.

People move on average of 4 to 5 years. You need to get an ROI of like 3 years so you can enjoy the last 2 before you move.

[branflakecereal]

Understood.

Just as opinion, if the same end result in terms of quality, reliability and fit for purpose criteria for less initial cost can be had with some value applied to the hassle of obtaining and maintaining the equipment, then the lower initial cost is one criteria. That type of logic usually knocks Sunpower out of contention or consideration by folks who know something about alternate energy and aren't trying to sell Sunpower.

Another criteria or consideration for potential PV users is what else could be done with the assets that would result in having more money in your pocket at the end of "X" years, or a better ROI on the investment. For long term cost effectiveness, see some of the stuff NREL has, particularly with respect to something called Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Then compare the LCOE of the PV supplied electricity with the LCOE of an equal quantity of replaced grid tied electricity. For low(er) electricity costs such as you seem to have, and for usual and (more)realistic time frames, like 10 - 12 years for example, grid tied power often comes out lower cost than PV supplied electricity. The longer the time frame, usually the better PV looks. Given a long enough time frame, even Sunpower stuff can be made to look cost effective compared to grid power. That does not however, mean that PV will be as cost effective compared to other places to put the assets.

But, overall, life is a crap shoot, with analyses that rely on projections of future conditions to usually be less than rock solid.

Still when comparing alternatives, such as PV power vs. grid power, there is a fair case to be made for using such tools for comparing one investment to another (or others) for decision making purposes.

This all does make sense. Adjusting for bond yields, an investment I see as a similar risk factor, it'd take me about 15 years for PV to exceed the value. I already have maximized my tax deferred retirement contributions, and I tend to be fairly risk averse with money, hence not wanting to strike out on any riskier, potentially higher yielding investments.

Ultimately, my vision is to have my home paid off in the next 15 years, and if I did that along with having Solar to wipe out my utility needs, my only expenses would be food, taxes, insurance and transportation, setting myself up to be comfortable on a fixed income later in life.

Aside from going the diy route (not for me, I don't have the skill set and I know it), is something in the 2.75 per watt installed range a fair price to pay in the current market?

I'm fairly confident that this is an investment I won't go bust on, which is good enough for me. I realize I'm not exactly buying Amazon stock circa 2005, but I'm not looking for staggeringly high yield. I'm just looking for safe.

[emartin00]

Because people are not exposing their scams. Somebody needs to go out and say, "This is the bare bones cost for everything" and then expose the rip off profit. These people ARE THIEVES!!! You wouldn't buy a car from a dealer making $15k profit on one transaction. I wouldn't do it with a solar panel install.

People move on average of 4 to 5 years. You need to get an ROI of like 3 years so you can enjoy the last 2 before you move.

Not exactly. Labor, training, insurance, permitting, planning; They all add to the cost. $3/watt isn't a terrible cost for an install. It's not great, but it's not absurd.