Goal: Net Zero - Companies Suggesting Widely Varying kW Systems

[DanKegel]

I saw that the power costs in the New England area have gone up pretty high and are now around $0.20/kWh for residential.

I hope that had nothing to do with the increased amount of net generation from solar pv systems ....

Well, let's see.
newenglandcouncil.com/assets/NEC-Energy-Report-October-2016-FINAL-Single-Page-Format.pdf has a whole lot of info that probably explains it... one factoid there is that New England has very little solar installed, so I doubt that is affecting things too much.

masslive.com/business-news/index.ssf/2017/01/federal_government_electicty_price_here.html and
bizjournals.com/boston/news/2017/02/27/new-england-s-wholesale-electricity-prices-hit-13.html both
say that wholesale electricity prices in that area are very dependent on natural gas supply and demand.

[J.P.M.]

If they are anything like SCE, you may be onto something there. State regulators are way too cozy with utility companies, so any claims of losses due to growth of PV, whether true or simply asserted, will have a sympathetic audience.

SCE bungled a multi-million dollar re-tubing project at the San Onofre nuke plant, resulting in multiple massive water leaks and rendering it useless. The cost to safely shut it down will run into multimillions of more dollars, so one might conclude that the stockholders of SCE's parent corporation, Sempra Energy, would be stuck with massive losses. But no, their buddies at the PUC bailed them out by approving a plan for the rate payers to pay for their bungling through huge rate increases.

FWIW: A good part of that San Onofre problem could have been prevented had the POCO got better outside engineering involved at the start. The flow induced vibration that caused the failures was and is obvious to anyone who's familiar with design of shell and tube heat exchangers. They tried to put 10 lbs. of stuff in a 5 lb. bag with about the same external footprint. As a result of a combination of reduced flow area and increased mass flowrates, things got moving too fast and resulting flow induced vibration caused stress cracking and failures at support plates, and collision damage between and among tubes which added to the problem. That it happened so quickly after startup is a flag as to how bad (and maybe how obvious) it was. Easy to spot if you know what to look for. IMO, the POCO's problem was not performing due diligence in the design check.

[Heataholic]

Here is an alternate investment idea. Send me $10,000, and I'll mail you a check for $1000 each year. 10% tax free return, right?

There are some important financial concepts missing here.. compounding, return of principal vs investment return. I understand why the someone might be hesitant to move forward with this contract. How many people even live in the same house long enough to realize anything close to an acceptable return for tying up so much cash?

That isn't at all a like comparison. I'd never suggest an old system should add value to a property but to say a 10% return on PV is the same as only earning back the initial investment is a bit hyperbolic. I purchase and own rental housing and the estimations of returns are near identical. If I spend cash on a rental property I expect to return my initial investment in 7 years then I begin to make additional money over my initial investment amount. Same goes for a PV investment except instead of earning money, and having to deal with all the taxes associated with that, you are saving money. The overly simplistic nature of your example leaves the person with zero in assets and as such nothing to gain from those assets at all after your 10 year period, which we all know isn't how solar PV works.

Lack of compounding is a justified argument but it also ignores rate increases; my utility (APS in AZ) just tried an 8% rate hike (they claim $11 on average but my bills are double their average), though that has been talked down a little bit (now to $6 on average). I think Nevada is a perfect example of the potential risks of going solar but even there the argument is far from over; their POCO may have screwed themselves big time with their bull and hopefully will be seen as a warning to other POCOs if things work out the way it is looking right now (they just passed a new net metering bill AB 405 and a big push to a constitutional amendment is underway).

As for how long people live in the same home the statistics (NAHB 2011) show first time buyers average 11 years and trade up buyers stay in a home for 15 years with the national average hovering around 13 years since the 90s -- data from the 2010 census show a median of 5.9 years. Given the average figures and current solar rates the average person would at the least regain their investment if they went solar in the first 5 years of buying their home, assuming 7 year ROI. Fannie and Freddie have instructions to add value for purchased solar (leased solar is the biggest scam in solar IMO) so there is definitely movement happening for homeowners on this topic so who knows where it will be in another 5-10 years.

Me personally I paid $2,957.83 last year or $246.49 a month on average for electricity. I spent $25,006.80 on my 10.92kw system and will get $7,502.40 back from the feds and $1,000.00 from the state making my out of pocket $16,504.76. After cutting usage some and adding solar my utility bill will be about $25 a month for a monthly savings of about $220 or an annual return of $2,640 for a 6.25 year ROI (on a 5% loan that would be 9.5 years). That is an equal or slightly better return on my capital than most of my rental properties except I don't have to deal with evictions, taxes, or any of the other nonsense tenants bring; and also that is only at current power rates which are most likely going up next month. I am hoping that in about 10 years from now, when the inverter dies, storage will be cost effective so I can add more solar and go off grid but we will see.

[brucet9]

For starters, I'd suggest you consider trying to get the proper poster with the proper post. But no matter, the sense of Sensij's post was something I'd largely agree with, which was what the +1 was about.

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I'm so sorry. That was a boneheaded mistake of mine responding to the wrong person.

[sensij]

That isn't at all a like comparison. I'd never suggest an old system should add value to a property but to say a 10% return on PV is the same as only earning back the initial investment is a bit hyperbolic.

Maybe, but last year, I unexpectedly moved less than 2 years after putting up my first array, and was given $0 for it in multiple appraisals performed to establish the property value at that time. My buddy put up a system the same time I did, his plans changed even sooner and he moved out less than 1 year later. That first system is a big loss for me, but I still love and believe in the technology... I'm self installing on my current home, to further reduce the cost and lower the financial risk. I'm hoping that I stick around long enough to sort of dollar cost average my whole solar investment across both properties into the black, but we'll see. There are already some new paths opening up that could result in another move in a year or two...

Planning on 7 years or 12 years into the future invites a lot of unknowns. For some, it works out in the long run, but I bet there are a lot of systems that have gone up in the past couple years whose owners would have been better off financially putting the money somewhere else.

[brucet9]

Maybe, but last year, I unexpectedly moved less than 2 years after putting up my first array, and was given $0 for it in multiple appraisals performed to establish the property value at that time. My buddy put up a system the same time I did, his plans changed even sooner and he moved out less than 1 year later. That first system is a big loss for me, but I still love and believe in the technology... I'm self installing on my current home, to further reduce the cost and lower the financial risk.

I see where you are coming from now. It appears that appraisers are supremely lazy where it comes to solar. I talked to one who said he applies a fixed $10,000 for solar. When I pointed out that solar arrays differ in value due to varying outputs, he just said "it's too much trouble to calculate that." My realtor friend said that owners have to spoon-feed the information to appraisers, or even better, find their own appraiser who understands solar. Several realtors I have talked to all agree that solar properties sell much faster than similar non-solar ones.

Your idea about self-installing sounds like a great one. You know equipment well and you probably already know some online suppliers that offer terrific pricing. Where I live, there is no permit fee for owner-builder solar, but you must have a licensed electrical engineer wet stamp the drawings. If you need it, I have a contact who can do that for less than $250. You probably already know to check the main panel before you buy to be sure the bus bars are not center-tapped and that there is enough capacity to meet the 120% rule.

[sensij]

Your idea about self-installing sounds like a great one. You know equipment well and you probably already know some online suppliers that offer terrific pricing. Where I live, there is no permit fee for owner-builder solar, but you must have a licensed electrical engineer wet stamp the drawings. If you need it, I have a contact who can do that for less than $250. You probably already know to check the main panel before you buy to be sure the bus bars are not center-tapped and that there is enough capacity to meet the 120% rule.

That is a great price for permits. For the city of San Diego, the difference in permit cost between plans submitted by someone "certified" or not is $175, so the net difference working with your guy is only $75... totally worth it, except for those with a masochistic streak who refuse to pay for anything they can do themselves.

I have a thread going on the installation, here:

https://www.solarpaneltalk.com/forum/solar-panels-for-home/solar-panels-for-your-home/345967-diy-self-install-in-san-diego-7-84-kw-for-1-30-w

[max2k]

My system is a 10kW and my annual household electricity consumption is about 15,222 kWh. As far as reducing my current consumption, except for the crazy pool, I think I do a pretty good job of considering ways to save electricity. My Dad used to brow beat my sister and I to turn off light switches back in the 1960s. You don't grow up with that and not consider how much power is being used for what purpose.

When we bought the house I upgraded pool pump to the variable speed (Pentair 011018, highly recommend) and switched 90% of the lights to LED starting from 'high traffic' ones first. Both of them paid for themselves within 4-8 months: our bill varied from $300 to $500 in AC months. Now it is $100 to $300 respectively and I don't hunt anyone to turn off the lights. LEDs and pump contributed probably equally to the savings. Making computers go to sleep if not in use for lengthy periods of time also saved a piece. Now I'm at the point where further savings would make life inconvenient and there's no 'low hanging fruit' left so to speak.

[J.P.M.]

When we bought the house I upgraded pool pump to the variable speed (Pentair 011018, highly recommend) and switched 90% of the lights to LED starting from 'high traffic' ones first. Both of them paid for themselves within 4-8 months: our bill varied from $300 to $500 in AC months. Now it is $100 to $300 respectively and I don't hunt anyone to turn off the lights. LEDs and pump contributed probably equally to the savings. Making computers go to sleep if not in use for lengthy periods of time also saved a piece. Now I'm at the point where further savings would make life inconvenient and there's no 'low hanging fruit' left so to speak.

Nicely done. The ROI or payback on what you did is most probably a lot better/sooner than a PV addition and so good first steps to consider prior to any solar energy efforts. In the long run, not using power is almost always less expensive than buying or supplying more of it.

[Magius]

Seems I'm late to notice this post, but maybe I can still help. Nethers, do you happen to be in OUC territory? If so, I have a calculator in Google Sheets that you could use to estimate your production, payback, and other financial metrics for both purchase and loan options. Message me and I'll send you the link. You just plug in some simple data from those quotes you got and it does the rest. If you're not on OUC, but you're in "central Florida", it will still work well enough, *unless* you're looking at a system that regularly over-produces power. If you're going for a system that only offsets say 90% of your consumption and you still pay a small bill every month the calculator will be alright, but if you expect to run a negative electric bill for months at a time, then the calculations are grossly different between OUC (who is awesome) and the other greedy utilities

BTW, the quote you got from ESA is quite good ($2.12/W). It appears they extended you something similar to OC co-op pricing, even though the co-op closed out months ago..? In comparison, every other quote you got is particularly high ($2.61 to $3.50). I wouldn't pay more than $2.25/W in this area for that equipment, but you have to be prepared to negotiate heavily for it. You should be able to get a great ROI from the ESA price, if you size the system correctly. Let me know if I can help with anything.

[Nethers]

Seems I'm late to notice this post, but maybe I can still help. Nethers, do you happen to be in OUC territory? If so, I have a calculator in Google Sheets that you could use to estimate your production, payback, and other financial metrics for both purchase and loan options. Message me and I'll send you the link. You just plug in some simple data from those quotes you got and it does the rest. If you're not on OUC, but you're in "central Florida", it will still work well enough, *unless* you're looking at a system that regularly over-produces power. If you're going for a system that only offsets say 90% of your consumption and you still pay a small bill every month the calculator will be alright, but if you expect to run a negative electric bill for months at a time, then the calculations are grossly different between OUC (who is awesome) and the other greedy utilities

BTW, the quote you got from ESA is quite good ($2.12/W). It appears they extended you something similar to OC co-op pricing, even though the co-op closed out months ago..? In comparison, every other quote you got is particularly high ($2.61 to $3.50). I wouldn't pay more than $2.25/W in this area for that equipment, but you have to be prepared to negotiate heavily for it. You should be able to get a great ROI from the ESA price, if you size the system correctly. Let me know if I can help with anything.

I actually contacted ESA about their COOP to get that pricing, but Solar City countered another competitor's bid, so I went with them. As I will be financing it for 20 years, the 20 year full coverage seemed preferable to a 12 year with ESA. I am in Duke Territory. I plan to be within 5% of my bill.

[SunEagle]

I actually contacted ESA about their COOP to get that pricing, but Solar City countered another competitor's bid, so I went with them. As I will be financing it for 20 years, the 20 year full coverage seemed preferable to a 12 year with ESA. I am in Duke Territory. I plan to be within 5% of my bill.

So what is the estimated final installed cost and how many whats is this Solar City system?

[Magius]

I actually contacted ESA about their COOP to get that pricing, but Solar City countered another competitor's bid, so I went with them. As I will be financing it for 20 years, the 20 year full coverage seemed preferable to a 12 year with ESA. I am in Duke Territory. I plan to be within 5% of my bill.

I figured that ESA quote was co-op pricing. I'm surprised you were able to get that from them so long after the co-op closed, but good to know. I'm also surprised that you found the Solar City option to be cheaper than that offer, but it sounds like it must have been a great deal. Congrats! I've been helping a lot of my neighbors plan for solar, sanity check quotes, negotiate w/ installers, etc. and I've only ever seen one Solar City proposal, but it was by far the worst proposal I've ever seen. It showed (by SC's calculations, which in my estimation were somewhat optimistic, like most proposals) that the homeowner would actually pay *more* for the solar loan than they would save in energy costs, so for the first 20 years they were just going deeper into the negatives. Then in the 21st year, she would start making money for herself, and eventually break even around year 25-26. These are the kind of traps unsuspecting homeowners tend to fall into, and I'm not trying to single out SC as the only purveyor of such schemes.

If you're interested, I could still shoot you a link to my calculator and you can plug in the values from SC's proposal to get a (more realistic IMHO) second opinion on your expected benefits from going solar. You wouldn't be sharing any data with me, you just make a copy of my Google Sheet on your own Drive and play with it to your heart's content. Most solar proposals use highly optimistic figures to exaggerate the rate of return and such, and most homeowners don't know how to double check the figures. For example, SC's quotes do not account for panel degradation over time, so your production in year 25 is assumed to be 100% of your production in year 1. This is not realistic, and while it's a "small" effect, it adds up quite a bit over that time scale. In any case, congrats again and I hope it all works out!

[brucet9]

Seems I'm late to notice this post, but maybe I can still help. Nethers, do you happen to be in OUC territory? If so, I have a calculator in Google Sheets that you could use to estimate your production, payback, and other financial metrics for both purchase and loan options. Message me and I'll send you the link.

I am starting to build a spreadsheet for evaluation of proposals for my upcoming PV project in SoCal. If you are willing, I would like to see your Google Sheet, or is it so tightly tied to Florida PoCos that it couldn't easily be adapted to SCE?

[Nethers]

Absolutely would be willing to fill out your sheet. I don't mind sharing my info and the original solar city proposal was a pretty poor effort at $136/mo for 8.4kW. I found out that the salesman can submit counter company proposals to a best value guarantee from corporate and renegotiate the numbers.

The final pricing was a tad higher than ESA.