APS - Arizona Public Service Rate Plans

[DanKegel]

In TX rates have gone down each year for the last 10 years. Down to 7-cents and going lower.

I hate to be a party pooper, but I checked, and that doesn't seem to be quite accurate?

puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates
and bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
both show that residential rates have gone up some years in Texas.

Here's a graph from that first source. I'm not sure we're in a downward trend at the moment.

latest_numbers_APUA31872610_2007_2017_all_period_M02_data.png

[Steve C]

I'm in N. Cal. PG&E will fight to the death any kind of rate reduction for its prisoners. Oops, I meant customers.

[SunEagle]

I hate to be a party pooper, but I checked, and that doesn't seem to be quite accurate?

puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates
and bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
both show that residential rates have gone up some years in Texas.

Here's a graph from that first source. I'm not sure we're in a downward trend at the moment.

Dan

With the overall number of POCO's (private and public) I would say coming up with a graph that shows what the rates have been would be misleading at best. Some of the private POCO's have reduced their rates while others have increased. But for all purposes Texas has damn cheap electricity compared to the rest of the US and in particular CA.

[FFE]

Many posters here consider anything less than a 5 year ROI a poor decision.

My opinion: Installing solar is more about length of risk than ROI. After one installs solar it basically has scrap value. Many figure that 5 years is a length of time that most can plan on living in the same home.

My experience: I started saving money the day after install. I financed 100%. My payments for the system were less than my electric bills. $200 less last year. And I received a tax credit for 30% of the install cost. I am at risk to lose money if I move in the first 7 years of ownership. A risk I was willing to take.

[J.P.M.]

Many posters here consider anything less than a 5 year ROI a poor decision.

My opinion: Installing solar is more about length of risk than ROI. After one installs solar it basically has scrap value. Many figure that 5 years is a length of time that most can plan on living in the same home.

My experience: I started saving money the day after install. I financed 100%. My payments for the system were less than my electric bills. $200 less last year. And I received a tax credit for 30% of the install cost. I am at risk to lose money if I move in the first 7 years of ownership. A risk I was willing to take.

Time == money. Getting solar PV, is, in one sense at least, like everything else in life, all about risk. And about how one wants to spend assets to achieve a lifestyle. And balancing the two. Risk nothing - be nothing. Fortune favors the bold, but slaughters rash ignorance. Knowledge is power. With PV knowledge come some power - the power to lower the odds of getting screwed, or increasing ROI which will lower payback (or risk of loss as f(time)). Pay your money, take your choice.

[Sunking]

I hate to be a party pooper, but I checked, and that doesn't seem to be quite accurate?

puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates
and bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
both show that residential rates have gone up some years in Texas.

Here's a graph from that first source. I'm not sure we're in a downward trend at the moment.

Dan you do not know WTF you are talking about. Again you are proving yourself to be a Dan Fool. TX and many states electric rates follow natural gas which have been going lower since 2007. If you were really honest and knew what you were talking about can easily verify it as fact. TX average residential retail rate is 8.7-cents/Kwh.

If you really wanted to know you can go here. Pull December 2008, and January 2017. That is a 27.8% drop in retail rates since 2008.

Time for you to go.

[sensij]

Different sources of data offer different perspectives. Recent experience in CA is that residential rates have been changing, but not uniformly across all customers. Up for most, down for some. Commercially rates have been moving too... rates went down in 2016, back up a bit in 2017 but maybe not back to 2015 levels. For my own projections, I generally assume rates will match inflation over long periods of time, but harbor no illusions that the numbers will move in lockstep with each other.

As for Texas, here is what the federal data show. Transportation and industrial are less than 0.06 / kWh, Residential has drifted back below 0.11 / kWh in the past year. Combined with commercial, the weighted average has been hovering around 0.08 / kWh. texas.JPG




This is all quite a drift from the OP's question about APS rate plans. A previous thread was more productive on that topic, but I don't know if any of those contributors are still active...

https://www.solarpaneltalk.com/forum...plans-with-aps

[J.P.M.]

I hate to be a party pooper, but I checked, and that doesn't seem to be quite accurate?

puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates
and bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
both show that residential rates have gone up some years in Texas.

Here's a graph from that first source. I'm not sure we're in a downward trend at the moment.

latest_numbers_APUA31872610_2007_2017_all_period_M02_data.png

How much rates have or will fluctuate on a macro level is interesting from an academic standpoint and of some value, but dangerous if extrapolated to infer too much. All trees in the forest are not conifers, or 50 ft. tall, or growing 2 ft. taller every year. Saying so is ignorant as is a graph showing gross trends, especially without some background information as to some reasons why a graph may look as it does, especially if/when future rates are one of the purposes of the discussion.

In these days of "alternate facts", some extra care to look deeper may be necessary. Example: PV vendors claiming POCO rates are skyrocketing. Local/household reality, at least as I've found it: My rates have gone up/down since at least 2001. Also, my rates of increase as f(usage), that is, how much my rates increase/decrease as a % vary with how much I, and my neighbors use. Some years, large users get larger % increases than smaller users. Some years it's the other way around.

Making unsubstantiated statements (as I have just done BTW) or supplying limited information in the form of graphs or slick power point slides aren't usually as much worth as they may seem, at least without digging further. Caveat Emptor.

[foo1bar]

Many posters here consider anything less than a 5 year ROI a poor decision.

5 years to "breakeven" is not great.
7 years to "breakeven" is where I would usually draw the line.
But I think it's reasonable for others to set their line at 5 or 8 or 10.

I am at risk to lose money if I move in the first 7 years of ownership. A risk I was willing to take.

That's definitely something to think about. And to keep in mind that there are a lot of people who move who weren't planning on it X years before they moved.
(And there are many reasons - job loss, medical reasons, family reasons)

[sensij]

In the digging further category, the federal data for CA residential rates is interesting. The spikes down in April and October in the residential series in the past few years must be from the CA Climate Credit, but I'm not sure how many people across the country looking at this would know that, without first hand knowledge of the bill.
CA.JPG

[sensij]

That's definitely something to think about. And to keep in mind that there are a lot of people who move who weren't planning on it X years before they moved.
(And there are many reasons - job loss, medical reasons, family reasons)

For sure... I moved much sooner than expected after installing a PV system on my old house, and now my tenants are enjoying the reduction in their electric bill. At the time I signed the contract, we had one kid, now we have three. I think for the next tenant, I want to re-write the lease so that electricity is handled something like a PPA... I'll keep the SDG&E account in my name, and will use SDG&E's meter data and reinstall a revenue grade meter on the inverter output circuit to calculate the tenant's actual consumption. I could probably charge half of the SDG&E rate, maybe a fixed 0.10 / kWh to keep it simple, and still bring in some extra cash each month to chip away at cost recovery of the PV system. There is a point at which they could consume enough electricity that it would be a loss, so there would probably need to be a cap before reverting to SDG&E's rate. Without an A/C, the only way they would get to that point is space heaters, to save on gas heating, I guess.

[SunEagle]

In the digging further category, the federal data for CA residential rates is interesting. The spikes down in April and October in the residential series in the past few years must be from the CA Climate Credit, but I'm not sure how many people across the country looking at this would know that, without first hand knowledge of the bill.
CA.JPG

Ouch. I can see why the CA customers feel like they are being robbed.

What year did CA require their POCO's to increase the % of production from RE sources?

[sensij]

Ouch. I can see why the CA customers feel like they are being robbed.

What year did CA require their POCO's to increase the % of production from RE sources?

Eh, it isn't that bad. By these data, the average annual rate increase since Enron's backruptcy has been 2.5%, slightly less than the rest of the country. As of the 2016 data, CA was 8th most expensive, with plenty of company from New England and Mid-Atlantic states. Recent rate reform re-allocates those costs in a way that people really notice, with some classes of customer seeing a ~10% yoy cost increase.

The RPS program began in 2002, with updated targets every 4-5 years.

[SunEagle]

Eh, it isn't that bad. By these data, the average annual rate increase since Enron's backruptcy has been 2.5%, slightly less than the rest of the country. As of the 2016 data, CA was 8th most expensive, with plenty of company from New England and Mid-Atlantic states. Recent rate reform re-allocates those costs in a way that people really notice, with some classes of customer seeing a ~10% yoy cost increase.

The RPS program began in 2002, with updated targets every 4-5 years.

Too bad you couldn't keep the hydro power stations running full out with the drought and all. Maybe you can get more wind power to help bring down the cost but I feel the POCO's have you over a barrel.

[J.P.M.]

Eh, it isn't that bad. By these data, the average annual rate increase since Enron's backruptcy has been 2.5%, slightly less than the rest of the country. As of the 2016 data, CA was 8th most expensive, with plenty of company from New England and Mid-Atlantic states. Recent rate reform re-allocates those costs in a way that people really notice, with some classes of customer seeing a ~10% yoy cost increase.

The RPS program began in 2002, with updated targets every 4-5 years.

I calc it ~ 2.7 %/yr. compounded annually, close enough.

As a simple example (only) of my claim that rate increases are local and use dependent:

Using rates in effect for me, and using my average usage since moving in and after a major remodel w/ solar water heater upgrade, using rates in effect 01/01/2003, After the big rate spikes of the early 2000's calmed down and were somewhat reduced, my annual bill for 6,572 kWh per year average use since the 2007 remodel would have been $922.54 (in calendar 2003).

Using rates in effect as of 03/01/2017, my bill (if PV were not a factor or present) will be $1,558.19.

That gives an average annual compounded increase/year of ~ 3.30% for my situation, with tiered rate, inland, all electric tariff for all calculations, and to repeat, the same annual and monthly use and use pattern, and FWIW, the same billing date schedule (the one in effect for 2009).

The highest 12 month calendar yr. increase was 10.7 % for 2008. The largest 12 month calendar decrease was - 4.36% for 2005. A couple of rate increases over those years have been worse than that, but were rescinded before year's end. Year over year rate changes have resulted in constant annual (and therefore theoretical) use bill decreases for me in 3 of the years 2003 - 2017, and up for the other years. Large users in my HOA on the same tariff have seen larger increases than mine, mostly in the more distant past, and lower increases or larger decreases in the more recent past.

Using statewide or larger area numbers are useful, mostly to call B.S./ on those with axes to grind or money to make off people's ignorance, but there are limits to usefulness, particularly when an attempt is made to get a better handle on cost effective of PV or conservation retrofits.