PG&E changing the tier structure

[DanKegel]

As I understand it, even with the two tier tariff, there will be four 'tiers':

0. Minimum charge only
1. Tier 1
2. tier 2
3. superuser

You probably want to aim for near the low side of tier 1 by reducing demand (LED lamps, etc) and adding solar.
Don't want to generate so much you pay that Minimum charge.

[w00dy]

As I understand it, even with the two tier tariff, there will be four 'tiers':

0. Minimum charge only
1. Tier 1
2. tier 2
3. superuser

You probably want to aim for near the low side of tier 1 by reducing demand (LED lamps, etc) and adding solar.
Don't want to generate so much you pay that Minimum charge.

Yes I saw that most users would be on 2 tiers - with not much difference between rates. I was initially planning to size a system to keep me off of the current high tiers as they exist today - but that doesn't math out as well going forward looking at the new tiers.

My roof has plenty of space to zero my bill if I want. I can already see that my usage has risen more than I expected this year after adding a pool, plus we have plans to add a ductless mini-split for hot days and some additional heating load in the winter, so our array size might be larger than I originally planned. I was thinking of a 12 panel system.

My home is already fairly efficient - we have LED lamps in all occupied areas with some more being added to areas that have low use - our home is just 3 years old with some moderate green features and easily met the Title 24 requirements at the time.

The best thing we have going forward with regards to solar is all of the roofs were engineered for the extra solar load, we have no shading, conduit is run to the areas directly below the roof for the main electrical run(s), plus we have 2 great roof locations with plenty of space, tilt and good south/southwest exposure. Our roof is a standing seam metal roof so that means no roof penetrations when we add panels, and we have a location in the garage for the inverter next to our electrical panel. Our city has an expedited permit process which should make things easier as well.

I would like to DIY the bones of the project with hookup and wiring done by and electrician...I just need to math out the size - and get it done before Dec 2016!!!

[sensij]

I would like to DIY the bones of the project with hookup and wiring done by and electrician...I just need to math out the size - and get it done before Dec 2016!!!

End of 2016 is a good target for the federal ITC. That's PG&E? You might want to also keep an eye on their allocations for NEM 1.0. Right now, it looks like the quota won't fill until 2017, but if the installation rates pick up a little bit, that could shift into 2016. I've been tracking it in the first post of this linked thread.

[w00dy]

End of 2016 is a good target for the federal ITC. That's PG&E? You might want to also keep an eye on their allocations for NEM 1.0. Right now, it looks like the quota won't fill until 2017, but if the installation rates pick up a little bit, that could shift into 2016. I've been tracking it in the first post of this linked thread.

Yes we are PG&E - thanks for the information on the NEM - I have seen that in passing, but I hadn't really checked into that yet. I expect that we will do the solar sometime next spring so we should easily make it before that opportunity goes away!

Our usage before our pool was 550kWh per month on average - now we are going above that - this last month was much higher at 742kWh. The pool was just finished in July, but based on my calculations it should only be adding about 70kWh to my monthly usage.

[thejq]

The pool was just finished in July, but based on my calculations it should only be adding about 70kWh to my monthly usage.

How do you plan on heating your pool? If the answer is heat pump, your usage will be a lot higher. While I don't know how your pool is designed, 70KWh/month sounds a little low even with a variable pump.

[w00dy]

How do you plan on heating your pool? If the answer is heat pump, your usage will be a lot higher. While I don't know how your pool is designed, 70KWh/month sounds a little low even with a variable pump.

Solar Heat only! - Right now we don't have roof solar, but we are plumbed for it and will add it if needed next spring.

So far this summer, even on foggy days we are having trouble with the pool getting too warm - so we have been opening the autocover at night after a hot day. Having a dark pebble finish, all day sun exposure, shallow overall depth, and the autocover we are seeing 85° plus water temps - I think it dropped to 83° after a few foggy days.

I just adjusted our VS pump down in speed to see how that lowers our electric bill - the pool builder had it running pretty high...

[Willaby]

As an engineer myself I find myself in a bit of analysis paralysis... It is hard enough to try to work my way through all the different options of system configurations and sizing, but then when you throw in a known unknown like the tariff structure changing in the next couple years, it really throws a wrench into things.

Right now my household uses 16MW/year so we're definitely in the upper end of power usage and I would expect our rates to lower after this change goes into place. I would guess that once the new tariffs take effect solar will still be cost effective, but maybe I should downsize a little? I'm curious to hear others thoughts on this.

SDGE? 16MW/year? My analysis shows you will get punished by 2018. Thinking that the new tariff structure will reduce rates over the medium and long term is like buying into the Obamacare lie that our insurance premiums would go down. 'nuff said.

[sensij]

SDGE? 16MW/year? My analysis shows you will get punished by 2018.

16000 kWh annually is probably enough to land you in the super-user surcharge, over 400% of your baseline allocation. That is going to be kind of painful, probably around what you are paying now in tier 4, plus whatever overall revenue inflation occurs. I'd suggest looking at a system that gets your monthly usage down to something around what your baseline allocation is, and then see if TOU plans can offset the rest of the bill (except the minimum charge portion).

[J.P.M.]

16000 kWh annually is probably enough to land you in the super-user surcharge, over 400% of your baseline allocation. That is going to be kind of painful, probably around what you are paying now in tier 4, plus whatever overall revenue inflation occurs. I'd suggest looking at a system that gets your monthly usage down to something around what your baseline allocation is, and then see if TOU plans can offset the rest of the bill (except the minimum charge portion).

For those on tier1 (probably most users at this time), the concept of getting a tiered load down to baseline (tier 1) with solar and then considering changing over to T.O.U. for further possible billing reductions seems to have a certain practical elegance about it.

Given the added uncertainty about the future of rates and how a bill might shake out in the future as a result of that new and added uncertainty, I'd give that method a shot for a sizing tool if I was a new (potential) solar user. Seems flexible and practical with less of a chance for overshoot/oversizing while still allowing the flexibility provided by time management of loads for the further reduction if needed. I might be careful to keep the changes in baseline quantities and prices in mind with respect to projected changes in the mid term - to 2019.

[Kbbean]

Reading through all this info is great but it's also giving me a headache. . Been looking at solar for the past month or so now with multiple quotes on the table. I've had quotes ranging from 4.5 kW system to 7.5 kW system. Every salesperson seems to think they are sizing my system correctly. What do you guys I should be aiming for. My current usage is about 10000 kW / year but the solar will be installed on a new house that I just bought. The new house is the same size but with a pool. I will be replacing the pool pump with a variable speed pump. I am also changing 95% of the lights in the new house with LED's. Should I assume a 12000kw/yr usage and get a system that would generate 80% of that? I am also planning on changing over to TOU rates. I am in the inland empire btw. On another post, JPM suggested that I should be able to reasonably expect 1650kw per kW nameplate of system size so a 6 kW DC system should get me around 9900 kW/ yr. is that a reasonable system if I want to get as close to zero net as I can with the change to TOU. I know I have some assumptions here but I don't really know how else to go about it. Again, thank you in advance to everyone for your input. you guys are all very helpful.

[J.P.M.]

Reading through all this info is great but it's also giving me a headache. . Been looking at solar for the past month or so now with multiple quotes on the table. I've had quotes ranging from 4.5 kW system to 7.5 kW system. Every salesperson seems to think they are sizing my system correctly. What do you guys I should be aiming for. My current usage is about 10000 kW / year but the solar will be installed on a new house that I just bought. The new house is the same size but with a pool. I will be replacing the pool pump with a variable speed pump. I am also changing 95% of the lights in the new house with LED's. Should I assume a 12000kw/yr usage and get a system that would generate 80% of that? I am also planning on changing over to TOU rates. I am in the inland empire btw. On another post, JPM suggested that I should be able to reasonably expect 1650kw per kW nameplate of system size so a 6 kW DC system should get me around 9900 kW/ yr. is that a reasonable system if I want to get as close to zero net as I can with the change to TOU. I know I have some assumptions here but I don't really know how else to go about it. Again, thank you in advance to everyone for your input. you guys are all very helpful.

OK. Try this: While I think 9,900 kWh/yr. is a first approx. for what a cost effective array output might be, that's only one opinion (mine) and opinions vary. The only opinion that counts is yours. I'd suggest to make that opinion as informed as possible.

To that end, try this:

1.) Somehow, estimate your new load.

2.) Figure out, while keeping rate reform and new tariffs in mind, what an annual bill will be with that new load. Consider tiered and T.O.U. tariffs.

3.) Figure out how many kWh/yr. you want to replace w/solar from how much you want to reduce you annual bill.

3.) Run PVWatts for the new location with the correct azimuth and tilt to the array(s), and get the system size that meets your requirements as determined by 3 above. Suggest using an 8-10% derate instead of the 14% #.

4.) Estimate a size suited to your requirements that is the closest size above the one PVWatts pukes out.

5.) Get several quotes for that size, or close to it for non Sunpower equipment from reputable electrical contractors who have been around a long time and sold solar for 5 + years.

6.) Don't lease and aim for $3.50/Watt or less with some tough but fair negotiating, with MAYBE a slight premium for a very good reputation on the installer.

Unfortunately, and while not trying to sound like a complete butthole about it, some input and education on your part is necessary. I think a 6 kW to 7 kW system in a decent orientation without much shading in the I.E. will get you a long term average output of something like 9,500 to 11,000 kWh/yr. as a SWAG, long term average. Whether or not you deem that output sufficient and cost effective is something only you can determine. I'd respectfully suggest PVWatts and some time spent getting familiar with POCO tariffs and how they are changing, but in the end NOMB.

[insaneoctane]

For the tread: All companies are changing their rate structures. Everything was fine for them when they were able to gouge the high energy consumers for big $. But once people with means (usually the high energy consumers) had another option besides getting raped... They took it. The power companies literally drove their best customers away. Oops. Now they are all trying to concoct a new rate scheme that doesn't necessarily drive the best customers away. For the next several years now we will all be on the receiving end of this experiment. No one knows where it ends, sorry. Best to just understand the facts and motivation. I think my investment in solar will still payoff.... But the jury is still out.

[SolarFamilyGuy]

Jesus man, I keep reading about how much electricity people use and amazes me on how much people around the country spend per month. I feel very fortunate to live in an area with already cheap and plentiful electricity. WoW! Times are changing now and solar anything is coming down in price and increasing efficiency every day. I have been reading that solar will be half the price in 5 years due to plentiful solar equipment. The energy companies should be sweating because they know their monopoly is coming to an end.

[J.P.M.]

For the tread: All companies are changing their rate structures. Everything was fine for them when they were able to gouge the high energy consumers for big $. But once people with means (usually the high energy consumers) had another option besides getting raped... They took it. The power companies literally drove their best customers away. Oops. Now they are all trying to concoct a new rate scheme that doesn't necessarily drive the best customers away. For the next several years now we will all be on the receiving end of this experiment. No one knows where it ends, sorry. Best to just understand the facts and motivation. I think my investment in solar will still payoff.... But the jury is still out.

Recent rate structures, similar to the way the gov. gouges high income earners for big $ were generally regressive like the fed. income tax system works (in theory anyway).

I'm not a big POCO fan, but I'm not sure rate reform is an experiment as much as a response to a need to preserve/increase profitability in the face of a politically driven and gov. mandated policy that forces them, in many cases, and for the I/O.U.'s' in CA anyway, to buy power for the same price they sell it for - not a good way to run a business.

As for high energy consumers, they currently and always have had another option: A combination of using less and wasting less. Crying the blues because you can't waste energy without paying for it always confused me a bit. Always seemed a bit more than arrogant and lazy to me. Under rate reform, that may well get easier in some cases - at least until 400% or so of baseline is reached.

[sparkle]

has PGE come out with new pricing ?