PG&E changing the tier structure

[EricF]

I've tried to find more details but haven't had much luck... I saw in the news that PG&E is planning to move from the 4 tier system they use now to a 2 tier system in the next couple years. Here is a link that gives some details:

http://www.pgecurrents.com/2014/02/28/pge-proposes-rate-reforms-for-residential-electric-customers/

Does anyone know more details? For people like me that are frequently in the 4th tier it might actually save me some real money! (and change the ROI eqn for solar I suppose)

-Eric

[sensij]

The final CPUC decision is posted here, you can read through the section on PG&E if you'd like.

http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M153/K110/153110321.PDF

Errata here:

http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M154/K140/154140544.PDF

You can search CPUC's site for proceeding R1206013 if you'd like more background, although the decision itself contains quite a bit.

Actual prices for the new tiers will be determined through general rate case proceedings. The CPUC decision above sets some guidelines, you can see what SDG&E's are here in this post.

PG&E 2014 GRC phase 2 proceeding is A1304012. You can search for documents on it at CPUC's site, or on PG&E's".

[EricF]

The thread you linked is interesting but just raised so many questions in my mind about impacts to solar. I'm very close to pulling the trigger on a self install system of 7.5 kW and it seems like these changes could potentially have a positive impact on my bill reducing some of my need for solar.

Honestly I don't have a problem with them charging us more for the fixed cost of being connected to the grid, it only seems fair. Sure it is a bummer for those of us who will produce most of their own power, but it is way cheaper than disconnecting and using batteries instead. I suppose the bigger bummer is for people who made a long term commitment by buying solar and now the rules of the game are changing. I guess I should have, but I didn't see this kind of change coming. I can see how PG&E would want to tilt the table back in their favor over residential solar installations.

[J.P.M.]

The thread you linked is interesting but just raised so many questions in my mind about impacts to solar. I'm very close to pulling the trigger on a self install system of 7.5 kW and it seems like these changes could potentially have a positive impact on my bill reducing some of my need for solar.

Honestly I don't have a problem with them charging us more for the fixed cost of being connected to the grid, it only seems fair. Sure it is a bummer for those of us who will produce most of their own power, but it is way cheaper than disconnecting and using batteries instead. I suppose the bigger bummer is for people who made a long term commitment by buying solar and now the rules of the game are changing. I guess I should have, but I didn't see this kind of change coming. I can see how PG&E would want to tilt the table back in their favor over residential solar installations.

It may be a somewhat dangerous overgeneralization to discuss general trends that new tariff arrangements and other aspects of the implications of what AB 327 forces, including the effects of oversizing on cost INeffectiveness, but one thing that seems to be likely is that all residential customers who use a lot of electricity will see there bills go down, and those who are frugal users will probably see their bills go up, both situations assuming that usage stays pretty constant. So, If you use a lot of electricity, the cost effectiveness of solar will probably decrease some, and if you are a small user, the cost effectiveness of solar may improve some. How much is large/small will depend on the particular tariff and I.O.U. (the power co.). At one time I did some SWAG's using what SDG & E was thinking about doing and it looked like the crossover was something like ~~ 10,000 - 11,000 kWh/yr. - Larger user's bills would drop, smaller user's bills would go up. That's probably in need of update at this time. A few of us have some homework to do when the new tariffs get approved and published later this fall.

[Willaby]

It may be a somewhat dangerous overgeneralization to discuss general trends that new tariff arrangements and other aspects of the implications of what AB 327 forces, including the effects of oversizing on cost INeffectiveness, but one thing that seems to be likely is that all residential customers who use a lot of electricity will see there bills go down, and those who are frugal users will probably see their bills go up, both situations assuming that usage stays pretty constant. So, If you use a lot of electricity, the cost effectiveness of solar will probably decrease some, and if you are a small user, the cost effectiveness of solar may improve some. How much is large/small will depend on the particular tariff and I.O.U. (the power co.). At one time I did some SWAG's using what SDG & E was thinking about doing and it looked like the crossover was something like ~~ 10,000 - 11,000 kWh/yr. - Larger user's bills would drop, smaller user's bills would go up. That's probably in need of update at this time. A few of us have some homework to do when the new tariffs get approved and published later this fall.

JPM - Yippee, rates are going down, celebrate!!! From your advise you must either get paid by SDGE, own Sempra stock or both. The trend for rates is UP. Yes, larger users will get SLIGHT, TEMPORARY relief on the 2-tier plan. It's something like $8 on a $200 bill and smaller users will pay something like $3 more. Then, a year or two later, there is the "super-user" tier, then, a couple years later, everyone goes to TOU! Then we customers, SDGE and the CPUC (whom we all love) are all hugs because rates are so low!? NO - they will be higher than now! Why would anyone think otherwise? Peak will likely shift two hours, but that makes more solar today a good plan, especially to the SW.

There are so many reasons to plan ahead and get the right amount of solar now - it's for 20 years by NEM contract and 30+ useful life. I'm not saying buy double expected usage, but a little more rather than less is the smart move. NEM 1.0 and the tax break are winding down soon too. Remember, the last kw of purchased solar is the cheapest. Don't advise the members to come up short as you have. One of these days I'm going to put up a poll to see where the forum members stand (or I challenge you to do it), in the meantime I'm going to set my AC to 72, not because I want to, but because I can, and with no bill. Ok, rant over. (disclaimer: no, I don't sell solar or own solar stock)

[DanKegel]

Don't bet against JPM. He may be pessimistic about solar, among other things, but he's no shill, and he's usually well-informed.

[DanKegel]

Anyone else having trouble editing posts? I wanted to change "may be" to "may seem" in my previous post, but it wouldn't let me.

[Willaby]

Don't bet against JPM. He may be pessimistic about solar, among other things, but he's no shill, and he's usually well-informed.

Definitely. JPM is worthy of moderator status. I learned about pvwatts from his posts. But call me crazy, I'm pessimistic about SDGE, Enron by the Sea, worst of the worst, and I say lock in a good amount of well installed solar now while the getting is good.

[sensij]

Anyone else having trouble editing posts? I wanted to change "may be" to "may seem" in my previous post, but it wouldn't let me.

To edit, a temporary fix is to enter a reason and hit enter, instead of using the save button. See the SPT Upgrade thread for more info.

[DanKegel]

Absolutely, current incentives are really good, get 'em while you can. They don't scale up well past ~10% of customers, though, so something's got to change. Whether future incentives actually incentivize solar is up to the politicians / regulators. The UK's new incentives are a great example of #fail in this regardless.

[J.P.M.]

Definitely. JPM is worthy of moderator status. I learned about pvwatts from his posts. But call me crazy, I'm pessimistic about SDGE, Enron by the Sea, worst of the worst, and I say lock in a good amount of well installed solar now while the getting is good.

I invoke the Sherman pledge. Besides, I'm retired with more time than money and more money than brains, with all 3 running out...... Fast.

As for being pessimistic about solar, I don't know of too many people who walked away from a successful career, returned to school because of an interest in solar energy and conservation and worked as a titled and licensed mechanical engineer, while staying involved in solar energy for better than half my life so far. If there is a bigger fan of solar energy in So.CA I'd like to meet'em. I suppose to the solar dreamers I sort of conform to the model of engineer as prick/hardass, raining on their solar parade. So be it.

That I don't conform or agree with some tree huggers' notions of pie in the sky thinking such as " You could just do this and - POOF" - a miracle happens and all will be right with the world " simplistic and ignorant version of reality, does not make me a pessimist as much as a cynic about ignorant, lazy thinking dreamers whose claims to expertize about solar usually come from cherry picking (often bogus) information, or selectively interpreting serious studies and then regurgitating what other, usually equally ill informed, monkey see, monkey do, me too types puke out - those types usually being, like the con men vendors who screw people, low life bottom feeders who screw others for their own gain and little else.

Enough of the soap box. Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[DanKegel]

Exactly... JPM only *seems* to be pessimistic, he's mostly just well-informed. (And a bit cynical, but that's OK.)

[J.P.M.]

Could we get back to how changes in rate tariffs can be understood in the context of impacts on solar PV system acquisition and sizing ?

[EricF]

As an engineer myself I find myself in a bit of analysis paralysis... It is hard enough to try to work my way through all the different options of system configurations and sizing, but then when you throw in a known unknown like the tariff structure changing in the next couple years, it really throws a wrench into things.

Right now my household uses 16MW/year so we're definitely in the upper end of power usage and I would expect our rates to lower after this change goes into place. I would guess that once the new tariffs take effect solar will still be cost effective, but maybe I should downsize a little? I'm curious to hear others thoughts on this.

Thanks,
Eric

[w00dy]

I would like to know what people think this will do also!

Changes to the basic rate stucture seems to me that it will make it more important to size a system to get the highest savings - sizing to keep out of the high tier???