Lowest $/W for SunPower system

[igerstein]

You're not, so it makes no difference. Forget I brought it up.

pepperidge farm remembers

[ndabunka]

Did you even read what I wrote? In your previous post, you provided direction on how one should calculate return. I disagreed and explained my alternative.

I did. My perception is that you were claiming that a delay in receiving the tax credit had an impact on your calculations. I guess that's "just you" as others will see a faster return (less than 3 months in my case).

What the stock market does has no impact at all on my personal discount rate.

...Use a justifiable discount rate to show what money not spent on panels or sent to the power company could be earning.

Implies alternative "investments" as if those were a given without recognition that those could well turn out to be losses. I guess I got a bit carried away as I have seen SO MANY on here trying to evaluate long term returns. My apologies on that tangent.

Perhaps I should have simply left it as "I don't see the delay on tax credits and solar might actually be more profitable than investing in alternatives". In my case EVERY kWh generated beyond year 8.5 will also be added to the final analysis

[sensij]

Did you even read what I wrote? In your previous post, you provided direction on how one should calculate return. I disagreed and explained my alternative. What the stock market does has no impact at all on my personal discount rate.

[ndabunka]

No, the FINAL price is not what I would use to calculate return. My own calculations have been based on cash flow... money paid to the installer in month 0 and 1, tax credit paid in month 10 (maybe, we'll see how quickly it gets processed next year). Looking at what my bill would have been and calculating the electricity cost avoided in all months since the array has gone online. Use a justifiable discount rate to show what money not spent on panels or sent to the power company could be earning.

Surprised you want to "go there" but the tax credit can be almost "instantaneous" as illustrated here:

Installation completed on 12/30/15 (Gives them a week to address any problems)
File Taxes on the 1st of January (Primarily W2 income and rental property all of which are KNOWN on 1/1/16) so... your argument of a delay in collecting a tax credit is largely folly.

100% all cash transaction so let's look at what that $9,262.05 of actual "cost" is doing (in my case). It is offsetting an estimated $927.48 in annual electrical expenses that are schedule to rise at about 6% annually for the foreseeable future. Being of a conservative nature I am using a more conservative 4% annual increase as I don't think that the Power Company will get 100% of it's requested price increases over the next ten years.

Perhaps you want to address other "potential" uses of these $s...

• I "could" put my $'s into a stock that "could" make a gazillion $'s or it could loose 100% of it's value.
• By now even the most inept financial person KNOWS that you can't put the $'s in CDs and get any reasonable rate of return.
• Arguing that the stock market has made XYZ% over a ABC time period is also folly as even the investment companies worn that "past performance does not ensure future results"

As an FYI I have been managing money for a long time now & do FAR better than most (Yes, I often MAKE $'s in bear markets via wise options trading) so this is no dig on the investment community but some on here "act" like they KNOW that they will have better use of a present value of $'s than they actually do.

The market has been on a LONG BULL run at this point. Everything that goes up eventually HAS to come down and we could well be in the midst of a bear market for the next 2-3 years. In fact, I could tell you (with equal validity) that the $'s invested in the stock market index (per se) WILL LOOSE 10% for the next 3 years before the market returns to profitability. Where does your logic go then when you have lost 30% of your investment base that could have been returning energy savings to your pocketbook?

I could go on but by now I think you have the idea...
I have the cash.
I believe this "investment" will provide the returns I am seeking.
I HAVE done the math and (for me) the numbers are viable
YMMV

[sensij]

Once it is all said and done (installed, tax credits, etc) my costs will have been $1.727994402985075/Watt for 16 SunPower 335 panels & Solar Edge 7600A Inverter installed in North Carolina. After all, the price per Watt from the installer really doesn't mean anything anyway but the FINAL price you paid is what you would calculate your Return on Investment based off of

No, the FINAL price is not what I would use to calculate return. My own calculations have been based on cash flow... money paid to the installer in month 0 and 1, tax credit paid in month 10 (maybe, we'll see how quickly it gets processed next year). Looking at what my bill would have been and calculating the electricity cost avoided in all months since the array has gone online. Use a justifiable discount rate to show what money not spent on panels or sent to the power company could be earning.

[ndabunka]

$1.71345/Wat for SunPower 335 panels & Solar Edge 7600A Inverter installed in NC

Once it is all said and done (installed, tax credits, etc) my costs will have been $1.727994402985075/Watt for SunPower 335 panels & Solar Edge 7600A Inverter installed in North Carolina. After all, the price per Watt from the installer really doesn't mean anything anyway but the FINAL price you paid is what you would calculate your Return on Investment based off of

[igerstein]

Options are a good thing so he has a right there. However, the way he (reportedly) USED that information is financially ignorant. That doesn't negate his analysis. Your argument is a basic law 101 argument where you (may be) artificially transposing your perception of his financial prowess onto his technical attributes in which case he may not actually be a COMPLETE idiot.... on second thought, he probably is not any sharper on the technical side than he is on the financial side..

I just feel bad for the guy. The deluge of information of which requesting made him feel responsible only served to sabotage his stated goal for requesting said information.

[igerstein]

Yikes

[J.P.M.]

why???

You're not, so it makes no difference. Forget I brought it up.

[igerstein]

Understood. Thank you.

why???

[J.P.M.]

Negative I work for a solar installer

Understood. Thank you.

[igerstein]

As in: Do you work for a financial institution ?

Negative I work for a solar installer

[J.P.M.]

what do u mean

As in: Do you work for a financial institution ?

[igerstein]

You're a financial person ?

what do u mean

[J.P.M.]

Right, that's exactly what I'm saying, we're in agreement here. I think the information overload often leads to paralysis. One of my clients wanted a spreadsheet showing way, way more options than was helpful to him (in my opinion). He wanted monthly payments, 20 year costs, true kwh rate, etc for four different loan terms, each with 4 different prepay options, and lease numbers for 3 different prepay options. He wanted that data for two different system sizes, giving him 38 different options.

He's been looking at that spreadsheet for four months now and is now moving forward on a standard lease, no prepay (literally the LEAST financially responsible decision). What does that say about his "purchasing process?"

You're a financial person ?