North County San Diego estimates for new install

[kylechoffman]

Long time lurker and recently new member. First I appreciate all of the knowledge and referrals for installers. I have been digging and have roughly three installer bids in with a couple more to go. I am not locked into Sunpower but the first three installers are three of the largest/ best relationship installers with Sunpower in San Diego and happen to be doing most of the work in my area so these bids will be Sunpower heavy. It should also be noted that a close family friend works for Sunpower so there is a 3k incentive to go with Sunpower. I am not sure of the 30% credit comes off the price quote from the installer before or after this is applied but I will assume after for now since its applied after total cost in the future tax year.

Our current usage averages about 790 kwh per month but with a recently installed pool (variable pump/salt etc) and lots of landscape transformers with leds, I want to upsize a bit. We also only have one month of post-pool usage and not a full year in the home so while we are getting bids now, we most likely wont pull the trigger until we cycle through a few months more of post-pool time. As far as the roof, we have enough room to put 20 panels on south and west facing roofs with some space on a smaller west facing for future expansion or pool solar.

Our house is less than two years old with a pretty solid build (radiant barrier attic) in terms of efficiency although there is only one ac/heat unit for a 3200 sq ft 3 zone home. We are putting in QuietCool whole house fans to help offset the ac usage in the summer/ fall evenings. Gas runs the pool heater (for now), home heating in the winter, cooktop, water heater and washing machine. We dont require a panel upgrade. With all that said, here's what we have so far:

Company A:
Bid 1: 18 SP x345 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $29860 -$3000 SP F&F discount = $26860 / (345X18) = $4.32/w - After 30% credit = $18802

Company B:
Bid 1: 18 SP x345 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $30428-$3000 SP F&F discount = $27428/(345X18) =$4.42/w - After 30% credit = $19202
Bid 2: 20 SP e327 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $31522-$3000 SP F&F discount = $28522/ (327X20) =$4.36/w - After 30% credit = $19966

Company C:
Bid 1: 22 LG 302 Panels with SE6000 Power Opt - $23983 / (302*22) = $3.61/w - After 30% credit = $16788
Bid 2: 20 SP e327 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $27918-$3000 SP F&F discount = $24918/ (327X20) =$3.81/w - After 30% credit = $17442
Bid 3: 18 SP x345 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $30549-$3000 SP F&F discount = $27549/(345X18) =$4.43/w - After 30% credit = $19284


Looking at the above, Company C Bid 2 looks like a great deal considering the per watt and price after credit. Keep in mind that I dont know if the SP f&f is pretax or not (i assumed its deducted before the tax credit. Company C also said that they will price match any competitor and give a 10% discount within 10 days of their quote as long as the bid is for the same equipment. Looking at Company A bid 1, they have beat Company C's identical equipment Bid 3. So I could potentially land the following (confirming tomorrow morning):

Company C: Revised
Bid 3 PriceMatch Company A Bid 1: 18 SP x345 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $29860 -10% of pricematch (2986)= $26874-$3000 SP F&F discount = $23874 / (345/18) = $3.84/w - After 30% credit = $16713

If I am able to produce the above, this beats the LG price after the credit and is really low for per watt for latest tech SP panels. I am wondering if I am missing something because this sounds a little too good to be true and please keep me honest on my calculations above (just traveled home all day from back east so I may be way off with everything). Appreciate the feedback.

Cheers

[sensij]

I'm not going to comment too much on weighing the options, that is up to you. I'll point out in the scenario you've created where the LG system and the Sunpower system are about the same price, the LG system will be producing about 8% more energy. If your system is oversized and that extra 8% won't help, then you could downsize it and save some money. Otherwise, the LG quote still looks like the better value to me.

[J.P.M.]

Unless you have some shading problems, expect about 1,600-1,700 kWk/yr. per nameplate Watt from either S.P. or LG, so Back of envelope tells me sizing is ~ close. Also, according to SAM, the LG's will put out a bit more than the S.P. 327's/Watt in San Diego.

If it was me, I'd still go w/ the LG's, although the ~ 6% in price ($3.84/$3.61) is close to my 5% S.P. premium cut off, but I'd be real careful on confirmation and make sure you get the 345's - I've caught one co. subbing lower wattage panels, but they're out of business and it was 5 years ago. Anyway, that $3.84/Watt # is getting pretty small.

Maybe a heads' up: The 30% fed. tax expires 12/31/2016. If you wait until next year, you'll only have 1 year to chew up the tax credit. See your tax advisor.

[kylechoffman]

Thank you both for the input. I plan on pulling the trigger this summer but trying to get more estimates on non-SP product. I did forget that Company A also offered 5% additional discount if we paid cash so that further reduces the price. If I upsize all 345 bids by adding another panel (At a cost of $1600 to add another 345 panel according to Company A), that would bring Company A's bid to: Bid 1: 19 SP x345 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $31460 - 5% discount for cash payment (1573) = $29887 - $3000 SP F&F discount = $26887 / (345X19) = $4.10/w - After 30% credit = $18820

If the above was used by Company C to price match plus 10% off, the updated numbers are:


PriceMatch Company A Bid 1: 19 SP x345 Panels with SunnyBoy Line inverter - $29887 -10% of pricematch (2988)= $26889-$3000 SP F&F discount = $23889 / (345/19) = $3.64/w - After 30% credit = $16725

This is roughly the same estimate but a lower per watt price and almost equivalent output (LG-6644 vs SP-6555 or 1.3% difference).

[J.P.M.]

For my part, you're welcome.

One other point: if you have the room, LG 280' are usually a bit less/Watt than the 300's but will take up ~ (300/280) = 107% of the area. Folks around here and more than a few posters are paying ~ $3.50/Watt for LG's. I've seen $3.40/Watt on a contract.

[s_man]

I would go with LG. I got quotes for $3.5/watt LG300 with SolarEdge from a San Diego Company and another from $3.4/watt same system in Orange County. So if your company C would price match, it would even be lower. Sun Power panels has advantage of 25 years warranty vs 10 years of other panels but the warranty is already factored in the price considered Sun Power panels cost almost twice as much that of LG.

[thejq]

Now I find it strange that everyone is so against SP. If it cost 20% higher than LG300W like it normally would, I'd say LG is a better value by far. But the OP is able to get SP at almost the same price as LG through F&F discount, why wouldn't SP be a better choice? It's not clear to me why LG will perform better watt-for-watt given all initial efficiency specs are similar, in fact SP is just slightly better (eg. 21.5%/345 > 18.6%/305). And over time, if you believe the SP's sales pitch, it should degrade slower than LG. And if you also believe in SP's warranty, they cover 25 year product and 25 year performance with installation labor INCLUDED. Again I don't think the extra worth 20% premium, not even 10%, but at < 5%, it does sound like a better deal to me. Also if can be had for the same price, I'd take the SP + P400 + SolarEdge SE7600 over SP + Sunnyboy.

[J.P.M.]

Now I find it strange that everyone is so against SP. If it cost 20% higher than LG300W like it normally would, I'd say LG is a better value by far. But the OP is able to get SP at almost the same price as LG through F&F discount, why wouldn't SP be a better choice? It's not clear to me why LG will perform better watt-for-watt given all initial efficiency specs are similar, in fact SP is just slightly better (eg. 21.5%/345 > 18.6%/305). And over time, if you believe the SP's sales pitch, it should degrade slower than LG. And if you also believe in SP's warranty, they cover 25 year product and 25 year performance with installation labor INCLUDED. Again I don't think the extra worth 20% premium, not even 10%, but at < 5%, it does sound like a better deal to me. Also if can be had for the same price, I'd take the SP + P400 + SolarEdge SE7600 over SP + Sunnyboy.

At ~ a 5% premium, S.P., which, it has never been questioned, is good stuff, just maybe not worth the usual high price, is in this case less overpriced and IMO, perhaps/probably worth that small(er) premium - in this case.

However, all the price matching, friends and family discounts and other wishes/we'll see uncertainties on quotes and pricing make me inclined to be interested in what happens, but keep in mind this is not a done deal yet. I really hope it all works out.

On performance: Running SAM under the same conditions on my roof, the 327's produce 1.816 kWh/yr. per installed kW. The 345's put out 1.839 kWh/yr. per installed kW. The LG 300's put out 1.863 kWh/yr, per installed kW. Still estimates all, and little better than a dart throw, but the only thing changed in the analyses is the panel. Maybe the 305's would estimate out a % or so better than the 300's.

We've beat warranties and their benefits such as they may be /may not be to death, and the lower S.P. degradation/yr., or anyone's for that matter, as being substantiated only by accelerated testing and in any case mostly impossible to verify in a practical sense.

Bottom line for me: I'd still go for the LG, based on 2 things: The idea that a super low S.P. price, while tempting, may well also serve as an excuse by the installer to cut a few corners they might not otherwise be cut., It's more than about low buck - its about most bang for the buck. And second, I'm pretty sure I can find get an LG system for about $3.50/Watt around here and preserve quality.

[varspeed]

For my part, you're welcome.

One other point: if you have the room, LG 280' are usually a bit less/Watt than the 300's but will take up ~ (300/280) = 107% of the area. Folks around here and more than a few posters are paying ~ $3.50/Watt for LG's. I've seen $3.40/Watt on a contract.

Hi, could you please P.M info on installers in North County.
Thanks!

[Ljr]

Can you please send me a PM with installer info as well? Our bid is $4.70/ watt for SP panels (18 x sp327) Installer claims authorized installers can't do the work for less than that. We're in Otay Ranch/ Chula Vista area. Thanks!

[kylechoffman]

Hi, could you please P.M info on installers in North County.
Thanks!

Are you asking me or JPM?

[kylechoffman]

Can you please send me a PM with installer info as well? Our bid is $4.70/ watt for SP panels (18 x sp327) Installer claims authorized installers can't do the work for less than that. We're in Otay Ranch/ Chula Vista area. Thanks!

I cant send PMs yet so pm me your email address.

[sensij]

Just one more post until you can PM! You can do it!

[kylechoffman]

10th post! Time to PM.

[J.P.M.]

Can you please send me a PM with installer info as well? Our bid is $4.70/ watt for SP panels (18 x sp327) Installer claims authorized installers can't do the work for less than that. We're in Otay Ranch/ Chula Vista area. Thanks!

That's because your being quoted Sunpower. FWIW, authorized Sunpower installers (which is a word between "authorized" and "installers" that the peddler left out of his statement) will do the job using 327's for less, but perhaps not much less. No matter. Other panels and inverters that are completely fit for purpose are avail. or probably a buck a Watt or more less. LG, SolarWorld, Canadian Solar, Kyocera, etc., to name a few of many.

For a lot of reasons, I won't/can't recommend installers. I can say that if you go with vendors who are electrical contractors who've been around for 10+ years, and been selling solar for at least 5 of those years, skip the Sunpower label, and get competitive bids and negotiate hard but fair, you'll probably wind up OK. Other posters in/around San Diego have most of the bases on vendors covered and have systems installed for ~~ $3.50- $3.75/Watt in the last year or less.

Add: Get your roof inspected/serviced before solar. It's cheap insurance and you will not be sorry. Solar panels can last a long time. Try to ensure the roof under it can match the lifespan of the panels.