Solar City

[Spektre]

Surprised no one is slamming SC for their quotes

I, like the OP, got a quote from SC. The PDF from the very pleasant salesman that came to my house had all the details in it.

Their 'MyPower' finance arrangement (which they claim is not a PPA), not their lease, does contain an annual payment increase of 2.9% and their comparison is for an estimated 3.9% annual rate increase from the utility. They wanted $61K before incentives for a 13.5kW (80%) system. So, not only are they way overpriced on their install, they're also increasing your cost every year for 30 years! Oh, but you'll own the system once it's mostly worthless...

The 'savings' graph they provided was my first clue. I thought - "That's odd - why is my fixed payment cost with solar increasing annually?"

After I digested this, I started searching for people posting about what a load of BS their pitch is, but found nothing. Needless to say, I won't be going with Solar City.

[Alisobob]

I spoke with Dave on the phone, told him the exact same thing.

He's looking into it.

[J.P.M.]

Thanks Bob. I read some of the thread on your installation. My house is 3,000 feet and I wish I knew where the power is going. We have a hot tub, a big fridge, a freezer, another fridge in the garage. 2 HVAC systems and it's a drafty old ranch house with 12 foot ceilings. And a 700 foot guest house. But I still think we pay way too much. I've had electricians out and they can't figure it out either, so at least I don't feel like a total idiot (most of the time).

Dave: From what you just described, your wish is granted. The power you use is going to all the stuff you described. Not a judgment, just reality - you have a very energy intensive lifestyle in a house that's a poster child as a candidate for an energy audit and what sounds like some serious conservation upgrades. I'd spend the money on conservation retrofits recommended by the audit long before solar. Much more cost effective and resulting solar will be smaller (read less expensive).

[inetdog]

Thanks Bob. I read some of the thread on your installation. My house is 3,000 feet and I wish I knew where the power is going. We have a hot tub, a big fridge, a freezer, another fridge in the garage. 2 HVAC systems and it's a drafty old ranch house with 12 foot ceilings. And a 700 foot guest house. But I still think we pay way too much. I've had electricians out and they can't figure it out either, so at least I don't feel like a total idiot (most of the time).

One thing you can do (perhaps on your own?) is get a clamp-on AC ammeter and look for current in branch circuits that should not be drawing power based on the loads that you are aware of.
If you have a smart meter and can access the 15 minute power totals for a 24 hour period you can get an idea of whether there is some constant background load or just some intermittent high power loads.

[russ]

Thanks Bob. I read some of the thread on your installation. My house is 3,000 feet and I wish I knew where the power is going. We have a hot tub, a big fridge, a freezer, another fridge in the garage. 2 HVAC systems and it's a drafty old ranch house with 12 foot ceilings. And a 700 foot guest house. But I still think we pay way too much. I've had electricians out and they can't figure it out either, so at least I don't feel like a total idiot (most of the time).

Through the old and no longer so effective insulation and leaky enclosure plus you have a multitude of users.

[J.P.M.]

Interesting, shows not much difference. SDGE has gone up more I think and is higher than that now. These are our current rates - 1-$0.17 2-$0.20 3-$0.37 4-$0.39

On SDG & E residential tiered rates: Like most things, it's more complicated than a one line explanation, made more complicated by the fact that most folks are ignorant about how to calc a bill.

Several years ago I got sick of listening to/reading peddler hype about rates increasing a bazillion % per year, but had no hard #'s. Soooo, I badgered SDG & E (back then, apparently no one thought about asking for prior year tariff sheets), and after some persistence, I got all the prior residential tiered rate tariff sheets back to 1995. Most of that is now on line. (1X/awhile I wonder if making a PITA of my self helped that access, but no matter.)

Anyway, I spreadsheeted the same methodology I use to calc current SDG & E bills, adjusting for changes not only in rates, but also a few tier number adjustments - for example, there were 5 for a while, and other things like DWR bond rates, etc. I also, cheated a little bit by using rates in effect as of 01/01 of each year and considering those rates effective for 12 months. If I had not done so, I'd probably not be done yet. The way I do it, I plug in 12 months of actual or supposed usage, use the same billing schedule each time - the one "closest" to the 1st day of the month, and calc a bill for, say, 2003 using those 12 months of usage. Then, do that for each year keeping the usage amount and pattern constant. Then, list each consecutive year's bill and use those annual totals to calc how much the cost of a set amount of usage has changed over the years. I've limited most of my analysis to 12 years, since that's my # of years for Present Worth Analyses and the time I feel is a reasonable # given prior local residential electricity price trends that skewed reality, and also, a reasonable time span for progress to reflect R.E. advances/changes in the past.

Some observations:

1.) Rates go up a lot some years and also go down a lot some years.

2.) The biggest surprise I had was that the annual rate increase for residential users of SDG & E power in any year varies as a function of the amount of product used.

For example:

Since 2003, residences using 6,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase in the cost of electricity of about 2.75% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 13.9% in 2014. The lowest annual increase was -4.9% in 2005 (rates went down). Two years, 2005 and 2008, had negative increases (rates went down).

Since 2003 residences using 12,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase of about 5.1% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 29.3% in 2003. The lowest annual increase was about -8.9% in 2008. 4 years, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2012 had negative increases.

Since 2003, residences using 18,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase of about 5.9% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 39.8% in 2009. The lowest annual increase was about -11.9% in 2008. 4 years, 2005,2008, 2011 and 2012 had negative increases. Some of that 2009 increase was correcting the 2008 decrease.



So, statistics don't lie, statisticians do. So do peddlers who may, for example say something like: "You know, Mr. Portzenbee, rates go up all the time - one year almost 40% !!! No wonder your bills are through the roof. I'd suspect most peddlers are clueless about actual rate increases and do little more than parrot what they hear or are told to babble.

Point is: rates change, and prior rate changes have been quite choppy one year to the next. Single year comparisons are misleading and peddlers use ignorance of such things to their advantage.

Caveat Emptor.

The rates are based on equal monthly usages of 500, 1000 and 1,500 kWh/month. That usage is not meant to imply typical use patterns. The examples given are for illustrative purposes only to show how annual rate increases change as
f(usage). Rates are for inland climate zone and per what is now schedule "DR" or as appropriate for residential users for the applicable year. Some variation will be seen for other climate zones and billing schedules - again this is to illustrate a point.

3.) The past is not the future. AB 327 will change the way bills are configured making all of the above an anachronism. It may be that once tiers are flattened a fair amount and IF future rate increases are indexed to some general inflation index, things will smooth out. T.O.U. will also have an impact as that billing method, which is not widely used at this time becomes more common.

[insaneoctane]

IMO that means it's time to buy a TED5000 (or similar) to see where the power is going.

Generally the big energy users are things with a motor (hot tub, freezer, refrigerator, AC, pool pump, sump pump)
And often those things need something that can measure power consumed by 220V circuit over a day (or week)

they aren't always the big users and aren't all 220V, but most likely.

I'd also get a Kill-a-watt to check on things like freezer, fridge, etc - things that do plug into an outlet.
Maybe you've got a bad seal on your freezer and didn't know it.
You may be able to borrow a kill-a-watt from your utility or city or library.

I totally agree with this advice. If you do buy a Ted 5000, you will get a benefit from it whether you install solar or not. Before you would even consider solar, you have a lot of energy efficiency work to do. Understand how low you can get your energy consumption down to, comfortably, before you go spend tens of thousands of dollars to supply your energy

[Ian S]

another fridge in the garage.

That might be one thing to get rid of. Probably an older less efficient one and struggling in a hot garage.

[foo1bar]

I've had electricians out and they can't figure it out either, so at least I don't feel like a total idiot (most of the time).

IMO that means it's time to buy a TED5000 (or similar) to see where the power is going.

Generally the big energy users are things with a motor (hot tub, freezer, refrigerator, AC, pool pump, sump pump)
And often those things need something that can measure power consumed by 220V circuit over a day (or week)

they aren't always the big users and aren't all 220V, but most likely.

I'd also get a Kill-a-watt to check on things like freezer, fridge, etc - things that do plug into an outlet.
Maybe you've got a bad seal on your freezer and didn't know it.
You may be able to borrow a kill-a-watt from your utility or city or library.

[davelittle]

Dont walk.... RUN away from this. The solar city people obviously didnt explain to you what you are buying. It is a power purchase agreement and you could find a bettwr deal in LA. Keep doing your research.... most of us have been through this already. Solar City was $15,000 higher on the system I bought.

Thanks a lot for the feedback. I appreciate it.

[davelittle]

1. Just how big is this house, and where is all this power going?

2. Have you ever had a efficiency survey done?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]6412[/ATTACH]

These are SCE's rates from 14 years ago...

Tier 1 $0.15
Tier 2 $0.20
Tier 3 $0.24
Tier 4 $0.26

Today in 2015, they are..

Tier 1 $0.15
Tier 2 $0.19
Tier 3 $0.28
Tier 4 $0.32

Anyone paying a payment escalator, is in for a rude awakening.

Dont fall for the "sky is falling" B.S.

Thanks Bob. I read some of the thread on your installation. My house is 3,000 feet and I wish I knew where the power is going. We have a hot tub, a big fridge, a freezer, another fridge in the garage. 2 HVAC systems and it's a drafty old ranch house with 12 foot ceilings. And a 700 foot guest house. But I still think we pay way too much. I've had electricians out and they can't figure it out either, so at least I don't feel like a total idiot (most of the time).

[ghoticov]

The way I read their quote is that the Financing Term is 30 years, with a 2.5% fixed annual increase in the payment. The fine print references loan repayment rates, so I don't think it's a lease.

Dont walk.... RUN away from this. The solar city people obviously didnt explain to you what you are buying. It is a power purchase agreement and you could find a bettwr deal in LA. Keep doing your research.... most of us have been through this already. Solar City was $15,000 higher on the system I bought.

[rwb1921]

1. Just how big is this house, and where is all this power going?

2. Have you ever had a efficiency survey done?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]6412[/ATTACH]

These are SCE's rates from 14 years ago...

Tier 1 $0.15
Tier 2 $0.20
Tier 3 $0.24
Tier 4 $0.26

Today in 2015, they are..

Tier 1 $0.15
Tier 2 $0.19
Tier 3 $0.28
Tier 4 $0.32

Anyone paying a payment escalator, is in for a rude awakening.

Dont fall for the "sky is falling" B.S.

Interesting, shows not much difference. SDGE has gone up more I think and is higher than that now. These are our current rates - 1-$0.17 2-$0.20 3-$0.37 4-$0.39

[Alisobob]

Any feedback?

1. Just how big is this house, and where is all this power going?

2. Have you ever had a efficiency survey done?

solar80.JPG

These are SCE's rates from 14 years ago...

Tier 1 $0.15
Tier 2 $0.20
Tier 3 $0.24
Tier 4 $0.26

Today in 2015, they are..

Tier 1 $0.15
Tier 2 $0.19
Tier 3 $0.28
Tier 4 $0.32

Anyone paying a payment escalator, is in for a rude awakening.

Dont fall for the "sky is falling" B.S.

[J.P.M.]

Is this going to be a roof-mount? For 17kW DC we are talking about 50+ panels here. Ground mount will be north of $4/watt likely, if so $80k before tax credit may not be too detached from reality.

$5.11 is a long way north of $4.00 wherever it's mounted.