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On SDG & E residential tiered rates: Like most things, it's more complicated than a one line explanation, made more complicated by the fact that most folks are ignorant about how to calc a bill.
Several years ago I got sick of listening to/reading peddler hype about rates increasing a bazillion % per year, but had no hard #'s. Soooo, I badgered SDG & E (back then, apparently no one thought about asking for prior year tariff sheets), and after some persistence, I got all the prior residential tiered rate tariff sheets back to 1995. Most of that is now on line. (1X/awhile I wonder if making a PITA of my self helped that access, but no matter.)
Anyway, I spreadsheeted the same methodology I use to calc current SDG & E bills, adjusting for changes not only in rates, but also a few tier number adjustments - for example, there were 5 for a while, and other things like DWR bond rates, etc. I also, cheated a little bit by using rates in effect as of 01/01 of each year and considering those rates effective for 12 months. If I had not done so, I'd probably not be done yet. The way I do it, I plug in 12 months of actual or supposed usage, use the same billing schedule each time - the one "closest" to the 1st day of the month, and calc a bill for, say, 2003 using those 12 months of usage. Then, do that for each year keeping the usage amount and pattern constant. Then, list each consecutive year's bill and use those annual totals to calc how much the cost of a set amount of usage has changed over the years. I've limited most of my analysis to 12 years, since that's my # of years for Present Worth Analyses and the time I feel is a reasonable # given prior local residential electricity price trends that skewed reality, and also, a reasonable time span for progress to reflect R.E. advances/changes in the past.
Some observations:
1.) Rates go up a lot some years and also go down a lot some years.
2.) The biggest surprise I had was that the annual rate increase for residential users of SDG & E power in any year varies as a function of the amount of product used.
For example:
Since 2003, residences using 6,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase in the cost of electricity of about 2.75% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 13.9% in 2014. The lowest annual increase was -4.9% in 2005 (rates went down). Two years, 2005 and 2008, had negative increases (rates went down).
Since 2003 residences using 12,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase of about 5.1% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 29.3% in 2003. The lowest annual increase was about -8.9% in 2008. 4 years, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2012 had negative increases.
Since 2003, residences using 18,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase of about 5.9% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 39.8% in 2009. The lowest annual increase was about -11.9% in 2008. 4 years, 2005,2008, 2011 and 2012 had negative increases. Some of that 2009 increase was correcting the 2008 decrease.
So, statistics don't lie, statisticians do. So do peddlers who may, for example say something like: "You know, Mr. Portzenbee, rates go up all the time - one year almost 40% !!! No wonder your bills are through the roof. I'd suspect most peddlers are clueless about actual rate increases and do little more than parrot what they hear or are told to babble.
Point is: rates change, and prior rate changes have been quite choppy one year to the next. Single year comparisons are misleading and peddlers use ignorance of such things to their advantage.
Caveat Emptor.
The rates are based on equal monthly usages of 500, 1000 and 1,500 kWh/month. That usage is not meant to imply typical use patterns. The examples given are for illustrative purposes only to show how annual rate increases change as
f(usage). Rates are for inland climate zone and per what is now schedule "DR" or as appropriate for residential users for the applicable year. Some variation will be seen for other climate zones and billing schedules - again this is to illustrate a point.
3.) The past is not the future. AB 327 will change the way bills are configured making all of the above an anachronism. It may be that once tiers are flattened a fair amount and IF future rate increases are indexed to some general inflation index, things will smooth out. T.O.U. will also have an impact as that billing method, which is not widely used at this time becomes more common.
Several years ago I got sick of listening to/reading peddler hype about rates increasing a bazillion % per year, but had no hard #'s. Soooo, I badgered SDG & E (back then, apparently no one thought about asking for prior year tariff sheets), and after some persistence, I got all the prior residential tiered rate tariff sheets back to 1995. Most of that is now on line. (1X/awhile I wonder if making a PITA of my self helped that access, but no matter.)
Anyway, I spreadsheeted the same methodology I use to calc current SDG & E bills, adjusting for changes not only in rates, but also a few tier number adjustments - for example, there were 5 for a while, and other things like DWR bond rates, etc. I also, cheated a little bit by using rates in effect as of 01/01 of each year and considering those rates effective for 12 months. If I had not done so, I'd probably not be done yet. The way I do it, I plug in 12 months of actual or supposed usage, use the same billing schedule each time - the one "closest" to the 1st day of the month, and calc a bill for, say, 2003 using those 12 months of usage. Then, do that for each year keeping the usage amount and pattern constant. Then, list each consecutive year's bill and use those annual totals to calc how much the cost of a set amount of usage has changed over the years. I've limited most of my analysis to 12 years, since that's my # of years for Present Worth Analyses and the time I feel is a reasonable # given prior local residential electricity price trends that skewed reality, and also, a reasonable time span for progress to reflect R.E. advances/changes in the past.
Some observations:
1.) Rates go up a lot some years and also go down a lot some years.
2.) The biggest surprise I had was that the annual rate increase for residential users of SDG & E power in any year varies as a function of the amount of product used.
For example:
Since 2003, residences using 6,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase in the cost of electricity of about 2.75% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 13.9% in 2014. The lowest annual increase was -4.9% in 2005 (rates went down). Two years, 2005 and 2008, had negative increases (rates went down).
Since 2003 residences using 12,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase of about 5.1% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 29.3% in 2003. The lowest annual increase was about -8.9% in 2008. 4 years, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2012 had negative increases.
Since 2003, residences using 18,000 kWh/yr. have seen a compounded average annual increase of about 5.9% per year.
The biggest annual increase was about 39.8% in 2009. The lowest annual increase was about -11.9% in 2008. 4 years, 2005,2008, 2011 and 2012 had negative increases. Some of that 2009 increase was correcting the 2008 decrease.
So, statistics don't lie, statisticians do. So do peddlers who may, for example say something like: "You know, Mr. Portzenbee, rates go up all the time - one year almost 40% !!! No wonder your bills are through the roof. I'd suspect most peddlers are clueless about actual rate increases and do little more than parrot what they hear or are told to babble.
Point is: rates change, and prior rate changes have been quite choppy one year to the next. Single year comparisons are misleading and peddlers use ignorance of such things to their advantage.
Caveat Emptor.
The rates are based on equal monthly usages of 500, 1000 and 1,500 kWh/month. That usage is not meant to imply typical use patterns. The examples given are for illustrative purposes only to show how annual rate increases change as
f(usage). Rates are for inland climate zone and per what is now schedule "DR" or as appropriate for residential users for the applicable year. Some variation will be seen for other climate zones and billing schedules - again this is to illustrate a point.
3.) The past is not the future. AB 327 will change the way bills are configured making all of the above an anachronism. It may be that once tiers are flattened a fair amount and IF future rate increases are indexed to some general inflation index, things will smooth out. T.O.U. will also have an impact as that billing method, which is not widely used at this time becomes more common.
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