Originally posted by gvl
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To sort of reiterate, my numbers are maybe one level above a SWAG.
Depending on if/how you time shift the loads, it's possible to reduce the net average price you pay the POCO per kWh to below the ave. per kWh $ value of what your system generates. It's just much harder to do with new user (non grandfathered) NEM 2.0 T.O.U. rates.
Perhaps interestingly, to the degree that time shifting of loads reduces the average amt. paid per kWh to the POCO happens, the PV system cost effectiveness improves, but not because of any improvements made in the system, but rather, because the difference between the value of the generated electricity and what you pay per kWh to the POCO increases.
Also and probably ironically, if initially designed for a load offset of < 100%, under a lot of load shifting, the system actually gets closer to a 100% $ offset. If initially designed for 100 % or greater offset, the system becomes more oversized from a billing perspective.
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