SDG&E NEM Cap

[Willaby]

By that logic, would the correct price if you had reduced the array by two panels (assuming same number of penetrations) be $1000 less, or $13732 ( $4.02/ W )? Once I really understood how the pricing works, I got quotes on my 3.1 kW array down to around $3.30 / W, so basing the analysis around your 14 panel anchor price leads to some incorrect conclusions about how the cost model can work.

If your installer is JPS, I actually got a copy of the price workup spreadsheet last year (by mistake), and with that, got some very good insight into how they approach their sales. There have probably been some changes, but increasing the array past 100% consumption is still an upsell, and not likely to be the most cost-effective choice.

Stepping back, I'm not really attacking your decision. People are free to make their own guesses about the future and spent their money accordingly. The price you paid is still less than most others in our area, and is likely to be less expensive (in a reasonable amount of time) than paying SDG&E for the same energy. I just won't let the suggestion to increase array capacity to 100% or more based on nebulous guesses about what rates will do in the future go uncontested. I've worked the numbers for some of SDG&E's proposed TOU peak shifts, and although the result is not as favorable as it is now, sizing at 100% (or more) of consumption is still not the most cost-effective option for most people.

I don't know what 12 panels would cost. Probably a couple less penetrations, probably a smaller inverter, one whole row less racking for me. I'll guess $3.55/w. You say $4.02 !? you're trying to simplify to make your case, but let's be real. I negotiated up to 16 on my own. There are the panel variables: 280's were a better deal than 300's. I can tell you that if you want to put up a one panel system or thirty, or something in between, that first panel will be the most expensive. and the thirtieth will be the least, and along the way there can be negotiation points that make sense. Not just "hey, can I get $300 off your quote", but more like " the quote is good, but let's add the two panels for ~$1k because everything else is the same and no extra expensive mounts to install, I think I'll do that". Please tell me again how wrong I am and how bad my price was.

Do you have 260w panels? Tile roof? The 260's are slightly less $ per watt than 280's. I wanted LG290w as the best price per w., but JPS is only doing 280's and 300's. The 300's upped the $/W too much for my liking, but they are quite popular non the less.

"Nebulous guesses"? Aside from tier 4 relief, do you think SDGE rates are not going up 4% a year? SDGE is the worst utility bar none (worse than HI). And that's not even the main reason to size nearer to 100%, there are so many other reasons. I can tell you this - few, if any, who size closer to 100% will have regrets, while most who aimed low will wish they had more.