SDG&E NEM Cap

[sensij]

I'm not suggesting anything - just repeating the information as published by SDG & E. But to be sure, I just checked what I printed from SDG & E and I'm looking at it as I type this. What they posted and put on the NEM history as of July 31,2014 was "Remaining MW to Cap" = 294.7.

I'm not sure how to explain what you printed, but I got a copy of August's report from CPUC. Remaining cap at the end of August was 303.8. CPUC also provided the full history of NEM installations, which I've linked in the OP, and used to calculate the recent installation rate and projected time remaining.

[J.P.M.]

I'm not sure how to explain what you printed, but I got a copy of August's report from CPUC. Remaining cap at the end of August was 303.8. CPUC also provided the full history of NEM installations, which I've linked in the OP, and used to calculate the recent installation rate and projected time remaining.

I'm not sure how to explain it either, nor do I intend to. Only report it like I saw it. Perhaps SDG & E is a month ahead or the CPUC is a month behind. The NEM cap from SDG & E dated 10/31/2014 is still on line. What does the CPUC for 10/31 say?

[sensij]

I'm not sure how to explain it either, nor do I intend to. Only report it like I saw it. Perhaps SDG & E is a month ahead or the CPUC is a month behind. The NEM cap from SDG & E dated 10/31/2014 is still on line. What does the CPUC for 10/31 say?

The CPUC report for October matches what is online. In fact, SDG&E's report to CPUC uses the exact same format as their webpage, so there is no confusion between the numbers. CPUC's cumulative tally in the spreadsheet is not updated for October yet, but as of September, they show 314 MW cumulatively installed, which matched pretty closely to the 314.6 MW number reported by SDG&E for September. CPUC's august cumulative tally was 304 MW, close to the 303.3 reported on SDG&E's page. The difference between them may be due to applications withdrawn or pending, or some other accounting difference that prevents them from being an exact match, but there does not appear to be a time mismatch.

In any case, it appears safe to disregard the July 2014 data you reported. The 2013 data you reported earlier in the thread does appear to have a 3 month time shift to it:

Your 12/2012 numbers closely match CPUC's 9/2012 data
Your 3/2013 numbers closely match CPUC's 12/2012 data
Your 6/2013 numbers closely match CPUC's 3/2013 data

I think it is great that CPUC is so responsive to data requests. I'll take the official numbers over a crowd-sourced recollection any time, although I appreciate your contribution to the thread since the path to official numbers wasn't clear.

[sensij]

Updated data for SDG&E in the first post.

There was sharp acceleration in allocation towards SDG&E's cap in November, especially with data only reported through 11/26. If the 6 month rate is maintained, the cap is now projected to be reached in 22 months, but given the recent trends, even faster looks likely. December has been a big month in every year of the data series provided, so it won't be until January that we can see if the recent install rates represent just a seasonal spike or a true continuation of the exponential trend.

I found some more discussion on the successor tariff here, based on the testimony provided by the IOU's in October. It sounds like they are pushing for a feed-in-tariff that is based on the cost of production... in other words, they want to tie the price that solar generators get paid per kWh to the price of an average install. They are even including in their proposal to calculate the average using national install prices, so that locally the prices aren't gamed to improve the tariff. If that proposal takes, the solar industry here is going to run into a brick wall once the net metering cap is hit.

[sensij]

Added SDG&E's report for December. As has been typical for the last couple years, December was strong. November's 20 MW cap hit is looking like an aberration, and was not duplicated this month. January has typically dropped off from December, and if that happens again this year, the 6 mo average should stabilize. At that rate, the cap will be hit in the 2nd half of 2016.

[NetMeteringCap]

Net Metering 5.0% Cap to Hit September 2015- February 2016 Max

http://www.sdge.com/clean-energy/net-energy-metering/overview-nem-cap

When you do your predictions dont use the past. This will be reached in no time. I am a commercial developer and we are seeing more interest than we have ever seen in commercial solar. If it makes sense choose a contractor and do the installation.

AB327 requires the existing Net Metering Programs in California to be offered until July 1, 2017, or sooner if net metering represents 5% of the utility's aggregate customer peak demand, as set forth in Public Utilities Code Section 2827. At recent installation rates, SDG&E will hit the cap well before the mid-2017 deadline.

More information on the successor tariff can be found here. The gist of it is that CPUC is creating a public modeling tool to anticipate adoption rates of renewable energy under a variety of scenarios, and will use that to inform their judgement on what the successor tariff becomes. That tool is scheduled to be finished by spring. The latest update on it was given in a workshop on Dec. 16, slides available here.

I intend for this thread to track the cap and tariff development as new information becomes available each month.

Poco------Month------Apps------Alloc.----Left

SDG&E (607 MW cap)
----------08/14--------8.0------303.2----303.8
----------09/14-------13.4------314.6----292.4
----------10/14-------13.1------329.0----278.0
----------11/14-------12.1------349.2----257.8
----------12/14-------14.3------361.5----245.5
History through 09/14 here
Average monthly installed capacity over past 6 mo = 12.3 MW, trend is leveling.
Months remaining to cap = 245.5 / 12.3 = 20, trend is leveling.



PG&E (2409 MW cap)
----------08/14-------36--------1177-----1232
----------09/14-------36.8------1206.3---1202.7
----------10/14-------49.4------1241.0---1168.0
----------11/14-------37.0------1279.5---1129.5
----------11/14-------37.0------1274.0---1135.0 (revised)

PG&E will not hit the 5% cap before July 1, 2017 at recent installation rates.

PG&E revised their November numbers at some point in December.

SCE (2240 MW Cap)
----------08/14-------22.2------881.1-----1359.2
----------09/14-------20.8------902.9-----1337.1
----------10/14--------7.5------930.9-----1309.1
----------11/14-------34.3------951.3-----1288.7
----------12/14-------32.5------978.8-----1261.2

SCE will not hit the 5% cap before July 1, 2017 at recent installation rates.

SCE note for October:
The Applications Received in October, 2014 is lower than previous months due to a high volume of applications which resulted in being several weeks behind in processing. The new applications for the month reflect approximately seven days of October only.

SCE still having trouble keeping up. They reused the same note as November, but updated the dates. Changes to the note are in [].
SCE note for November [December]:
The MW from Applications Received in November [December], 2014 was estimated. Estimation was necessary due to a processing backlog resulting from an abnormally high volume of applications. An average system size (kW) per application was multiplied by the actual number of applications submitted through November 30, 2014 [December 31, 2014]. The average system size was calculated using the actuals from applications processed in August and September 2014 [September, October, and November 2014].

[J.P.M.]

http://www.sdge.com/clean-energy/net...erview-nem-cap

When you do your predictions dont use the past. This will be reached in no time. I am a commercial developer and we are seeing more interest than we have ever seen in commercial solar. If it makes sense choose a contractor and do the installation.

Could you define "no time " for me please ? Is that the same as zero ?

We've had some discussions - some of them vigorous - about when the net metering cap for the IOU's may be reached.

While we may disagree about the reported #'s, their meaning and origins, I never got the impression that any of the discussion was about hard and fast numbers in terms of a date(s) when 5% caps will be reached.

To me, at least, its been more of a highlight to perhaps remind folks that the while the CA net metering maximum cutoff DATE is 12/31/2016, the actual cutoff for the IOU's with respect to allowed additions under the current net metering schemes will, in all likelihood, be reached sooner than that given the historic rate of installs. I wouldn't call that a prediction as much as trending spotting, or having one eye and one balloon knot. This ain't rocket science.

Maybe this exercise will do little more than reduce the number of people who, come 12/31/2016, wind up holding little more than their best intentions in their fist when they discover they missed the NEM boat due to a misreading or misunderstanding of the cutoff date. The worst that can happen is some people will be better informed. So, where's the harm ?

If anything, I believe this cutoff date exercise, for me anyway, is not much more than sort of a heads' up to folks who are thinking about solar, and want and expect net metering under the current scheme, to know that the cutoff date is moveable and it's coming down the road at you - maybe sooner than you thought. That's all. To call it a prediction is probably too strong a term and IMO, not very applicable to this situation.

I'd go as far as predicting that the SDG & E 5% cap will be reached about 6 months sooner than 12/31/2016, +/- about 6 months or so - maybe sooner, based on prior allocations with something of a trend of some seasonal variation.

I don't believe it's possible to extrapolate a guess about such situations without using some historical data with educated guesses about how things might unfold in the future. I'm not as familiar with the other CA IOU's and their progress toward the 5% cap, but I think the trends are similar, and the cutoffs will be before 12/31/2016.

[sensij]

Mostly +1 to J.P.M.'s post, except that the legislated date for the NEM cutoff is July 1, 2017, 6 months after the scheduled expiration of the federal tax credit at the end of 2016. From recent trends, SCE will not hit the 5% cap before that date, and PG&E might if installation rates pick up somewhat as the deadline approaches. SDG&E almost definitely will hit the 5% cap before the deadline, and if their rate of installation continues exponentially (a very long shot), it might be by the end of 2015, but more likely sometime in 2016.

To the extent I speculate on when the caps will be hit, it is more of a thought experiment and as J.P.M. suggests, a head's up that the caps exist and might be relevant. It is *not* (at this time) a go out and buy something now kind of warning. Mostly, I want this thread to serve as evidence against the salespeople who will inevitably use the cap as a pressure tactic to get a contract signed. I have not found another source of NEM installation history in the public domain (google), and while the CPUC was eventually responsive to my inquiry about SDG&E installation history, they are not instant and not everyone would take that step.

Until the successor tariff is much further along in development than it is today, it is hard to say how big of a speed bump to the industry the end of the current net metering will even be.

[J.P.M.]

Mostly +1 to J.P.M.'s post, except that the legislated date for the NEM cutoff is July 1, 2017, 6 months after the scheduled expiration of the federal tax credit at the end of 2016. From recent trends, SCE will not hit the 5% cap before that date, and PG&E might if installation rates pick up somewhat as the deadline approaches. SDG&E almost definitely will hit the 5% cap before the deadline, and if their rate of installation continues exponentially (a very long shot), it might be by the end of 2015, but more likely sometime in 2016.

To the extent I speculate on when the caps will be hit, it is more of a thought experiment and as J.P.M. suggests, a head's up that the caps exist and might be relevant. It is *not* (at this time) a go out and buy something now kind of warning. Mostly, I want this thread to serve as evidence against the salespeople who will inevitably use the cap as a pressure tactic to get a contract signed. I have not found another source of NEM installation history in the public domain (google), and while the CPUC was eventually responsive to my inquiry about SDG&E installation history, they are not instant and not everyone would take that step.

Until the successor tariff is much further along in development than it is today, it is hard to say how big of a speed bump to the industry the end of the current net metering will even be.

My error. Correct date is 07/01/2017 or at 5%, whichever comes first. I sometimes get that confused with the fed. energy tax credit expiration of 12/31/2016. My apologies to those who may have read my mistake.

[sensij]

Not much to say about January's installation numbers for SDG&E. They are down slightly from December, but that is consistent with the past few years. 19 months from now is September, 2016, so I would still be looking at that as an upper limit to when the cap will be reached. Some increase in installation rates as the year progresses would not be surprising to me, and I am guessing the cap will be reached in early to mid-2016.

[sensij]

We have a winner for first San Diego installer I've seen marketing against the cap. Bold, considering how little is known about what the successor to the existing net metering will be, and also a bit premature, since SDG&E's cap is looking good for at least another year, anyway. Considering how expensive this installer is relative to others in the area, I guess I can see the need to be drumming up more business from clueless customers.

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[J.P.M.]

We have a winner for first San Diego installer I've seen marketing against the cap. Bold, considering how little is known about what the successor to the existing net metering will be, and also a bit premature, since SDG&E's cap is looking good for at least another year, anyway. Considering how expensive this installer is relative to others in the area, I guess I can see the need to be drumming up more business from clueless customers.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]5861[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH=CONFIG]5862[/ATTACH]

And just makes life more difficult in the common sense lane for some of us. This seems little better than fear mongering masquerading as public information. Just business I guess. More Caveat Emptor.

FWIW, seems to be a reputable installer from a quality standpoint. 5 or 6 installs in my HOA. Finished prod. all seem of good design/construction. Potential cust. satisfaction at quote stage seems to run hot/cold. I requested a quote from them. They were about $.80/Watt higher than successful bidder.

Obviously, from their advertising, some of us may think their marketing is questionable.

[ericf1]

I received the same e-mail today. Also received an e-mail from them yesterday, saying the same thing without the graphic or links. The salesman I spoke with also brought it up during his visit last year, so I'm not surprised.

Off topic, any word on SDG&E implementing their new two-tier rate schedule?

[albert436]

+1

Got the same email today.

Is it believable ?

[J.P.M.]

+1

Got the same email today.

Is it believable ?

Half truths or less. Scare tactics and B.S.

Confirming/piggybacking on Sensij's comments: NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL FLUSH OUT.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE CAP. The 3 big POCO's in CA must publish progress toward the cap. SDG & E does that 1X/mo. check it out. Right now , the cap is a little better than 3% of the 5% max and probably has about 1 yr. or so left - maybe more, maybe less - no one knows - me, Sensig, vendors, POCO's or anyone else.