PV systems pricing dropping in 2023

[nerdralph]

That's crazy. I paid $22k USD for a 18kWp 13kWi APSystems DS3 microinverter no-storage grid-tied system and that includes rewiring the top half of my home with new db and transfer switch. Ordered direct from China and local certified installer installed with relevant approvals. Includes scaffolding to a 2nd storey roof.

I'd guess you bought the PV panels in the US though.

[J.P.M.]

I've had competitors come to me in the past imploring us to raise our prices. Enough of the public is so gullible and doesn't do their due diligence, that many solar companies standard practice is to take advantage of them. Then they come to me and demand we raise our prices (we're still about $2.00-2.25/watt) so they don't look bad. Wholesale PV solar prices are below 50cents/watt. Its unconscionable what some solar companies charge. (and No, we don't cut corners and we just bought a Rivian for the crew)

There's probably the ghost of an old Greek philosopher by the name of Diogenes walking around looking for you. You'll recognize him by the lamp he carries.

To the degree that what you write reflects reality, your outfit's success verifies the truth of it. Reminds me of what I used to refer to as tacit price fixing I'd see and here about when I was a commission sales person peddling industrial process equipment. The temptation is a very tough nut to crack mostly because it's so easy to justify and so difficult to prove.

Anecdotally, I suspect you're probably spot on. I've seen what are probably similar goings on to what you write of in my dealings with vendors who install PV systems in my HOA.

IMO only, and as is typical in most consumer areas and dealings, customer's self-inflicted ignorance is their own worst enemy. Not a defense of poor vendors or unethical business practices, but most vendors are only taking advantage of what may look to them like found money.
And, not defending crappy work or business ethics here, but that's before or without talking about the shoddy work that can often result from lack of customer due diligence and attention to what's going on up on their roof both during and after installation.

[MattSl]

I've had competitors come to me in the past imploring us to raise our prices. Enough of the public is so gullible and doesn't do their due diligence, that many solar companies standard practice is to take advantage of them. Then they come to me and demand we raise our prices (we're still about $2.00-2.25/watt) so they don't look bad. Wholesale PV solar prices are below 50cents/watt. Its unconscionable what some solar companies charge. (and No, we don't cut corners and we just bought a Rivian for the crew)

Now that's the kind of company that I would heartily search for, and be happy to do business with. Being honest in your pricing and work will pay off in the end.

[solarix]

I've had competitors come to me in the past imploring us to raise our prices. Enough of the public is so gullible and doesn't do their due diligence, that many solar companies standard practice is to take advantage of them. Then they come to me and demand we raise our prices (we're still about $2.00-2.25/watt) so they don't look bad. Wholesale PV solar prices are below 50cents/watt. Its unconscionable what some solar companies charge. (and No, we don't cut corners and we just bought a Rivian for the crew)

[SunEagle]

J.P.M., I'm in Florida, and thanks to Desantis for vetoing our state version of California's utility-written bill.

I opted for the Tesla install, bought in June 2021, had it installed in late August, 2022. Tesla spent over 8 months arguing with my power company to get approvals. I have the system operating, but still waiting for PTO from my power company 5 months later. Since I have batteries, I've been running for the entire span. If I didn't have batteries, I'd be upset having a full system just idling on the roof for almost half a year with zero return.

SunEagle, I'm not against paying for experienced installers, I think they deserve higher salaries. I think it is more on the solar companies themselves, setting price based on what they think a household can afford rather than what it will cost for parts and installation. Kind of like getting an estimate on the phone, but it 'magically' increases when they visit your house.

That is so right. Solar Installers in Florida seem to want to get as much as they can if the customer is unaware of the true costs and production of an installation

[MattSl]

J.P.M., I'm in Florida, and thanks to Desantis for vetoing our state version of California's utility-written bill.

I opted for the Tesla install, bought in June 2021, had it installed in late August, 2022. Tesla spent over 8 months arguing with my power company to get approvals. I have the system operating, but still waiting for PTO from my power company 5 months later. Since I have batteries, I've been running for the entire span. If I didn't have batteries, I'd be upset having a full system just idling on the roof for almost half a year with zero return.

SunEagle, I'm not against paying for experienced installers, I think they deserve higher salaries. I think it is more on the solar companies themselves, setting price based on what they think a household can afford rather than what it will cost for parts and installation. Kind of like getting an estimate on the phone, but it 'magically' increases when they visit your house.

[davidcheok]

Residential PV has always been exclusionary for the working poor - at least in the U.S. anyway. That's one of the arguments the POCOs use to justify attacks on net metering.

Next time you fly, look out the window on landing approach and see how many solar roofs there are in poorer areas vs. the more affluent suburbs.
Kind of like the giveaway of gauging how relatively affluent countries are by the light pollution they give off.

Probably a useless comment but I wonder what the median net worth of readers and contributors to this forum might be.

This is true. Even here in Brunei. However, i see people owning multiple cars changing them once every few years. I had to take a substantial personal loan to fund my solar and the repayments will eat a substantial amount of income for 4-5 yrs but once that is done, only then it truly becomes an asset. Yes I could have had the repayments over a 10-15 yr period but I would only be paying more interest and im only prolonging the inevitable of having to pay back. Rather get it done and over with ASAP. Many would rather take financing on a luxury car that turns into a piece of scrap after 10 yrs. IMHO there are two ways of looking at solar projects. Either see it as a financial instrument to save money and have an ROI or see it as an extension to your home improvement without an ROI.

[J.P.M.]

It is a downward spiral where people can't get an income to survive and solar installs are becoming something only the rich can afford. We are headed in the wrong direction.

Residential PV has always been exclusionary for the working poor - at least in the U.S. anyway. That's one of the arguments the POCOs use to justify attacks on net metering.

Next time you fly, look out the window on landing approach and see how many solar roofs there are in poorer areas vs. the more affluent suburbs.
Kind of like the giveaway of gauging how relatively affluent countries are by the light pollution they give off.

Probably a useless comment but I wonder what the median net worth of readers and contributors to this forum might be.

[J.P.M.]

I know the parts are becoming cheaper, but so it is with automobiles and other commodities. The issue isn't the parts getting cheaper, it's the reluctance of dealers to reduce their costs to consumers. It is expected for 2023 to be a very tough year financially across the globe, so there will be far less people buying, and dealers will have to deal with inventory and interest rates being high. But fewer buyers means tough times for installers, which will further the reluctance to reduce prices until they get to the breaking point.

Tesla was the big change in the industry a few years ago, gave the installers a run for their money by making systems far more affordable. Now that they have exited a large number of areas, I see the majority of solar installers taking advantage and going back to their inflated pricing models.

How inflated?
In 2019 - local company quoted me a 12kw string system, no batteries for $77k.
2021 - same company quoted a 16kw string system (no batteries) for $92k
2021 - Tesla quoted a 20.4kw string system with 4 PW2+ for $69k.
2022- Tesla exited my area, going to contractor. Pricing on Tesla's site for my house is now $101k

Where are you located ?

If in CA, know that there is a scramble to get installed or at least permitted by April 2023 before NEM 3.0 takes effect. That will cause prices to inflate.

A sharp price in SO. CA for a roof mount with no storage was ~ $3.00-3.50 US before NEM 3.0 deadlines became commonly known. It's turning into a bit of a wild west show now.

[SunEagle]

"high pay"? What is a fair wage to climb a roof 20 feet off the ground and install a leak free solar system on your roof?

The solar installers should be paid for the hazard work which IMO does justify the install price to go up.

But I have issues when someone is getting "high pay" and the box stores just install more self checkouts since they can't afford a lot of labor. It just equates to more people out of work.

It is a downward spiral where people can't get an income to survive and solar installs are becoming something only the rich can afford. We are headed in the wrong direction.

[davidcheok]

In 2019 - local company quoted me a 12kw string system, no batteries for $77k.
2021 - same company quoted a 16kw string system (no batteries) for $92k
2021 - Tesla quoted a 20.4kw string system with 4 PW2+ for $69k.
2022- Tesla exited my area, going to contractor. Pricing on Tesla's site for my house is now $101k

That's crazy. I paid $22k USD for a 18kWp 13kWi APSystems DS3 microinverter no-storage grid-tied system and that includes rewiring the top half of my home with new db and transfer switch. Ordered direct from China and local certified installer installed with relevant approvals. Includes scaffolding to a 2nd storey roof.

[Mike 134]

As long as the laborers expect high pay I am afraid all installations will be high regardless of the equipment costs.

"high pay"? What is a fair wage to climb a roof 20 feet off the ground and install a leak free solar system on your roof?

[SunEagle]

I know the parts are becoming cheaper, but so it is with automobiles and other commodities. The issue isn't the parts getting cheaper, it's the reluctance of dealers to reduce their costs to consumers. It is expected for 2023 to be a very tough year financially across the globe, so there will be far less people buying, and dealers will have to deal with inventory and interest rates being high. But fewer buyers means tough times for installers, which will further the reluctance to reduce prices until they get to the breaking point.

Tesla was the big change in the industry a few years ago, gave the installers a run for their money by making systems far more affordable. Now that they have exited a large number of areas, I see the majority of solar installers taking advantage and going back to their inflated pricing models.

How inflated?
In 2019 - local company quoted me a 12kw string system, no batteries for $77k.
2021 - same company quoted a 16kw string system (no batteries) for $92k
2021 - Tesla quoted a 20.4kw string system with 4 PW2+ for $69k.
2022- Tesla exited my area, going to contractor. Pricing on Tesla's site for my house is now $101k

As long as the laborers expect high pay I am afraid all installations will be high regardless of the equipment costs.

[MattSl]

I know the parts are becoming cheaper, but so it is with automobiles and other commodities. The issue isn't the parts getting cheaper, it's the reluctance of dealers to reduce their costs to consumers. It is expected for 2023 to be a very tough year financially across the globe, so there will be far less people buying, and dealers will have to deal with inventory and interest rates being high. But fewer buyers means tough times for installers, which will further the reluctance to reduce prices until they get to the breaking point.

Tesla was the big change in the industry a few years ago, gave the installers a run for their money by making systems far more affordable. Now that they have exited a large number of areas, I see the majority of solar installers taking advantage and going back to their inflated pricing models.

How inflated?
In 2019 - local company quoted me a 12kw string system, no batteries for $77k.
2021 - same company quoted a 16kw string system (no batteries) for $92k
2021 - Tesla quoted a 20.4kw string system with 4 PW2+ for $69k.
2022- Tesla exited my area, going to contractor. Pricing on Tesla's site for my house is now $101k

[AmyJones]

Good to hear the price is dropping