PV systems pricing dropping in 2023

[Old_Man]

Not a homeowner, but if I were, ground mount, not rooftop.

[J.P.M.]

There is NO way I'd attempt to myself do a solar installation.

Since last spring I have had nearly $40,000 worth of work done on my house / property. In every case where there was any degree of skill involved, I had the skilled professional do it. I wanted it done right.

Once I saw the material the above vendor had sent to me I realized this was not something for me. I tried to explain this to the sales representative who I had an arranged phone meeting with but she wanted to make a sale. Told me I could buy it all then find someone to install it. Told her that was not something I'd pursue given that anyone qualified to do that probably wanted to make the largest possible profit by also supplying me with all the equipment.

My original question here was if it'd be a valid comparison of what this vendor was attempting to sell me versus what a turnkey vendor is going to use in an installation to get some kind of sense of what kind of margin the vendor then had for paying its installation employees and for profit.

Understood. If you've ever done any cost accounting, particularly for small businesses, I'm sure your aware that overhead involves more than just payroll and profit. One thing often overlooked is the idea that an installer has some liability for after-sale service and troubleshooting. Some of that liability is shared with equipment mfgs. but it's still a liability.
A ball shot FWIW on how much of an install cost is material:
Several knowledgeable DIYers here and elsewhere have reported that they have installed their own systems for something close to a buck a watt plus their labor, maybe a bit more. Some lots more. That was at a time when turnkey installs in S.D. county were running about $3.25 - $3.75/installed STC W. Seems to me reading between the lines that most of those DIYers had a pretty long learning curve before, during and after install and they're holding the bag for screwups.

[vnatale]

My experience is that the only green folks give a crap about is the on their money. Most folks I speak with pay lip service to saving/improving the environment but get PV because they've been brainwashed into it by treehuggers, solar peddlers and their shills - the media, all of whom say they can save money.
The reality, in so. CA anyway is that most folks overpay per STC W and then also get oversized, both of which often occur to the point that most residential PV owners around here would have been money ahead in the long run if they'd done nothing and skipped the PV altogether and concentrated on energy conservation (which the POCO's can't control or charge for BTW) and saved themselves all the bitching about self inflicted high energy bills.

Another reason is to keep up with the Joneses. To whit: ever notice how many arrays are on homes next to homes that also have arrays. In So. CA I've noticed arrays seem to happen in clusters. Why is that ? Solar siting has something to do with it, but there's not enough shade around here to account for all the clustering. And anyway, users seem not to care (or more accurately, even know) about shade and how it can affect system output. Lots of shaded and north facing arrays around here. Go figure.

Rant mode off.

Whenever any of the solar vendors last summer would bring up to me the "green" benefits of going solar I'd immediately stop them by telling them that this was strictly going to be a financial decision for me. Also, my super frugal lifestyle always has me inherently being more "green" than the self-proclaimed "green" people.

When a roof mount was forcing me to prematurely replace my east facing roof at a cost of $5,400, that was adding another year to the number of years to pay back.

I also pressed each of them hard on these other possible large additional costs I'd have strictly due to a solar installation:

1) Any necessary transformer modifications that would be passed on to me cost-wise.

2) The need for my electrical panel to be increased from 100 amp to 200 amp.

3) Whether the attic side of my roof would need to be reinforced to support solar panels.

If they had all said that I needed to upgrade from 100 amp to 200 amp at a cost of $4,000 ... that would have ended me exploring solar.

Fortunately, none of them believed I'd be seeing much or any costs in any of these three areas.

However now that I've had three mini-splits installed three weeks ago and am shifting my heating source from oil to electricity ... that seemed to make the solar installation decision an easy one.

[vnatale]

It isn't well known to me but that means little.
I'd suggest that if you are not very savvy at DIY (and you don't macho B.S. yourself about it), and you have not installed a PV system or two, to not do it.
I've seen folks who claim to be electricians and also all their own home improvements do barn jobs on systems that building inspector could almost or actually red tag. I tried to talk a (claimed) EE out of a DIY attempt because it was clear that he was way out of his knowledge and ability base.

Still, a lot of DIY systems work out, Not a knock, but from what you've written so far, I sort of doubt a DIY job you'd do would come to an optimum end. But that's only one opinion based on your posts.

There is NO way I'd attempt to myself do a solar installation.

Since last spring I have had nearly $40,000 worth of work done on my house / property. In every case where there was any degree of skill involved, I had the skilled professional do it. I wanted it done right.

Once I saw the material the above vendor had sent to me I realized this was not something for me. I tried to explain this to the sales representative who I had an arranged phone meeting with but she wanted to make a sale. Told me I could buy it all then find someone to install it. Told her that was not something I'd pursue given that anyone qualified to do that probably wanted to make the largest possible profit by also supplying me with all the equipment.

My original question here was if it'd be a valid comparison of what this vendor was attempting to sell me versus what a turnkey vendor is going to use in an installation to get some kind of sense of what kind of margin the vendor then had for paying its installation employees and for profit.

[J.P.M.]

I agree that a lot of people install solar just to go Green and do not care about what it is actually costing them financially.

My experience is that the only green folks give a crap about is the on their money. Most folks I speak with pay lip service to saving/improving the environment but get PV because they've been brainwashed into it by treehuggers, solar peddlers and their shills - the media, all of whom say they can save money.
The reality, in so. CA anyway is that most folks overpay per STC W and then also get oversized, both of which often occur to the point that most residential PV owners around here would have been money ahead in the long run if they'd done nothing and skipped the PV altogether and concentrated on energy conservation (which the POCO's can't control or charge for BTW) and saved themselves all the bitching about self inflicted high energy bills.

Another reason is to keep up with the Joneses. To whit: ever notice how many arrays are on homes next to homes that also have arrays. In So. CA I've noticed arrays seem to happen in clusters. Why is that ? Solar siting has something to do with it, but there's not enough shade around here to account for all the clustering. And anyway, users seem not to care (or more accurately, even know) about shade and how it can affect system output. Lots of shaded and north facing arrays around here. Go figure.

Rant mode off.

[SunEagle]

The cost of not being an informed consumer.
Who's the bad guy, the vendor seeing money laying around waiting to be picked up, or the customer who knows there's a hole in his pocket leaking $$ but is too lazy to fix it ?

I agree that a lot of people install solar just to go Green and do not care about what it is actually costing them financially.

[SunEagle]

Where do you live to have a rate of $0.12/kwh??!! Here in western MA we are now at $0.362. A 20% increase from July 1, 2022 and an 80% increase from July 1, 2020.

Actually my cost is just over $0.10/kwh from my POCO, Withlachoocee River Electric down here is Western Florida called Brooksville and it took many years to get up to that number.

When I run the numbers I use that $0.12/kwh as a value knowing it may take years to get there.

The POCO's around here that have raised their rates a lot are Florida Power and Duke. And their reason is to cover the cost of all of the Solar arrays they have recently installed. So you can see why I a little pissed off at the reasons to go solar right now.

[J.P.M.]

Is this a well known vendor?

Solar Panel Kits | Shop DIY Solar Kits & Complete Solar Systems (gogreensolar.com)

I contacted them not realizing they strictly service the Do It Yourself market and are not the complete turnkey system.

But would they make a good comp to see what are the cost of the components for a system to compare what the price are from vendors for a similar installed system?

It isn't well known to me but that means little.
I'd suggest that if you are not very savvy at DIY (and you don't macho B.S. yourself about it), and you have not installed a PV system or two, to not do it.
I've seen folks who claim to be electricians and also all their own home improvements do barn jobs on systems that building inspector could almost or actually red tag. I tried to talk a (claimed) EE out of a DIY attempt because it was clear that he was way out of his knowledge and ability base.

Still, a lot of DIY systems work out, Not a knock, but from what you've written so far, I sort of doubt a DIY job you'd do would come to an optimum end. But that's only one opinion based on your posts.

[vnatale]

The cost of not being an informed consumer.
Who's the bad guy, the vendor seeing money laying around waiting to be picked up, or the customer who knows there's a hole in his pocket leaking $$ but is too lazy to fix it ?

Is this a well known vendor?

Solar Panel Kits | Shop DIY Solar Kits & Complete Solar Systems (gogreensolar.com)

I contacted them not realizing they strictly service the Do It Yourself market and are not the complete turnkey system.

But would they make a good comp to see what are the cost of the components for a system to compare what the price are from vendors for a similar installed system?

[J.P.M.]

That is so right. Solar Installers in Florida seem to want to get as much as they can if the customer is unaware of the true costs and production of an installation

The cost of not being an informed consumer.
Who's the bad guy, the vendor seeing money laying around waiting to be picked up, or the customer who knows there's a hole in his pocket leaking $$ but is too lazy to fix it ?

[vnatale]

I ran the numbers for a 6kw system and it may save me $1000 per year using an electric rate of $0.12/kwh which is almost 2 cents above what I am spending. So doing the number even at $2/watt installed or $12k (which is way below what I keep getting for quotes) it will take about 12 years to pay for itself which is too long for me

Where do you live to have a rate of $0.12/kwh??!! Here in western MA we are now at $0.362. A 20% increase from July 1, 2022 and an 80% increase from July 1, 2020.

[davidcheok]

Wow, that's a lot of work. Did you have previous experience in the logistics business? I find arranging LCL sea freight & brokerage from Asia to be quite a pain in the ass.

Some. All China needs to do is send the docs and details of shipping and a local forwarding agent can arrange the declaration and extraction plus delivery to door. Alibaba's escrow service is brilliant. Takes a lot of fear out of buying stuff and vendors there do their best to ensure good service because of the ratings. Prices are good because its extremely competitive. Once you have the shipping docs, track the ship using Fleetmon and you know when it arrives at port so your local forwarder can initiate declaration. Pay the tax and fees and wait.
It IS obviously more work than just paying the installer and you will have more work to deal with in case of warranty issues but if you order more than you need as spares, you can swap out any DOA and take your time to do any exchanges at your leisure. This is usually the part which adds the additional costs locally. Installers need to order MOQ and keep stock in hand which adds to customer costs.

[nerdralph]

No. I sourced a supplier via alibaba.

Wow, that's a lot of work. Did you have previous experience in the logistics business? I find arranging LCL sea freight & brokerage from Asia to be quite a pain in the ass.

[davidcheok]

I'd guess you bought the PV panels in the US though.

No. I sourced a supplier via alibaba.

[nerdralph]

It is a downward spiral where people can't get an income to survive and solar installs are becoming something only the rich can afford. We are headed in the wrong direction.

I've actually been thinking of installing PV on some of my rental houses.