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California sales of household batteries predicted to grow in 2020

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  • California sales of household batteries predicted to grow in 2020

    From 10,000 units in 2019 the sales of household batteries is predicted to grow to 50,000 units in 2020:

    https://about.bnef.com/blog/californ...ruple-in-2020/
    Last edited by Ampster; 02-24-2020, 10:54 PM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Ampster View Post
    From 10,000 units in 2019 the sales of household batteries is predicted to grow to 50,000 units in 2020:

    https://about.bnef.com/blog/californ...ruple-in-2020/
    Well I have an opinion concerning anything that has Bloomberg in the title so I will just stay out of this post because I think it is all smoke and mirrors.

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    • #3
      I think it may make sense though. As more people are thinking about using solar power, and last year California suffered so many power outages. Here in Maine the public utilities only track the grid-tied 'net metering' installations, they have no idea how many off-grid homes exist. So they assume that only a tiny fraction of homes are off-grid. Here in my town 75% of all solar power is powering off-grid homes. The only way to track the growth of homes using solar power would be to track sales of batteries.
      4400w, Midnite Classic 150 charge-controller.

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      • #4
        Wait til the next fire season and watch that 50K unit sales get surpassed over a month's time or less with the first major power curtailment.

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        • #5
          I am sure that is a major driver for this trend. Especially in my neck of the woods. Long term it does not bode well for the Investor Owned Utilities unless they can adapt.
          Last edited by Ampster; 02-25-2020, 02:02 AM.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

            Well I have an opinion concerning anything that has Bloomberg in the title so I will just stay out of this post because I think it is all smoke and mirrors.
            I agree the projection for 2020 is merely an opinion, but are you saying you do not believe the sales figures are reasonably factual?

            I checked the sources and the 2017 & 2018 numbers are from the US Energy Information Agency.
            Last edited by Ampster; 02-25-2020, 02:17 AM.

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            • #7
              I have a hard time justifying the purchase of batteries when we have net-metering in CA. The way I see it, the poco acts like my battery and I don't need to spend any additional money. Batteries are still quite expensive and generally last an average of 10 years. It seems to me the only real advantage of having batteries is backup power when the grid goes out, which in my case happened maybe once the past 5 years that I can recall.

              If you really want to talk about batteries, head over to the Tesla forum. They seem to be competing with one another to see who can have the most Telsa PowerWall installs. I guess if you've got money to burn...and want to join the cult,

              Btw, the utilities will do just fine. They are now building solar farms with the intention of selling renewable energy to new homes built in CA. This gets around the mandatory solar install law that was introduced in 2020.

              https://www.utilitydive.com/news/cal...dard-t/572784/
              Last edited by PugPower; 02-25-2020, 03:44 AM.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Ampster View Post
                I am sure that is a major driver for this trend. Especially in my neck of the woods. Long term it does not bode well for the Investor Owned Utilities unless they can adapt.
                I like quiet as much or more than anyone, but I ought to have added that while having an ICE generator that's also a noise generator is probably a better practical solution for temp. power when the lights go out, or at least faster and cheaper solution to the problem if not quieter, I believe the battery peddlers will play on fear and gouge folks. It's just business.

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                • #9
                  Yes, I am sure there has already been an increase in sales of generators as well..Generators have taken a prime spot next to BBQs at my local hardware store. The selling point for batteries is that they can leverage an existing GT PV solar installation. Generators can't do that nor can they save money by load shifting and peak shaving. With TOU rates in California hitting as much as $0.54 per kilowatt hour that can be a selling point to some. It is just a matter of time before our forum sponsor starts trying to pick up leads for this market. As you said, it is just business. Threads like this are bound to attract lurkers.

                  Generac is hedging their bets and purchased Pika, a battery manufacturer. I am sure they will sell plenty of systems with batteries and generators to those that have the disposable income. As the population ages there is also a segment of the community that is dependent on medical devices and that is another selling point.
                  Last edited by Ampster; 02-25-2020, 12:57 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Even with load-shifting and TOU, won't it take many many years if ever just to break even considering the current cost of batteries? When I designed my PV system I was focused on getting a break-even of approximately 5 years. It seems that adding batteries to the mix would push the break even date far into the future. Do batteries make financial sense, or is it just a luxury to have power when the grid goes down?
                    Last edited by PugPower; 02-25-2020, 01:05 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by PugPower View Post
                      Even with load-shifting and TOU, won't it take many many years just to break even considering the current cost of batteries?
                      Yes it will. But it does lower the cost of back up, while providing other benefits. The demographics of California also contribute to this market trend, not to mention subsidies for self generation.

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                      • #12
                        I agree with you, that for some it is medically necessary and for those who wish to live off grid. I believe for the rest of us it just makes more financial sense to buy a larger solar system and take full advantage of net-metering, then add batteries. Unless you are lucky enough to get state subsidies from your poco for the batteries.

                        I'd bet in a few years when CA kills Net-Metering, batteries will become standard with solar installs. Similar to Hawaii.
                        Last edited by PugPower; 02-25-2020, 01:23 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by PugPower View Post
                          ........... Do batteries make financial sense, or is it just a luxury to have power when the grid goes down?
                          Yes some of these decisions will be emotional. Based on the spending habits of some people with large disposable incomes I have seen a blurring of the line between necessity and luxury. On other forums, on threads focusing on Tesla Powerwalls, many posters rave about the financial benefits. Some of these are Silicon Valley engineers who have developed spreadsheets to help them take advantage of TOU rates. To them it is a technology challenge to beat PGE at their own game.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ampster View Post
                            I am sure that is a major driver for this trend. Especially in my neck of the woods. Long term it does not bode well for the Investor Owned Utilities unless they can adapt.
                            I'm not trying to start an argument here, but IMO only, once the lights go out it's probably about the only factor that will drive a majority of folks to batteries or ICE generators until the POCO power comes back on. Then, demand will continue to rise slowly with sales to the niche market of early adoptors and treehuggers until the next time the POCO power goes out. Then, another blip in the market will occur.

                            Through all that, outfits perceived as meeting the need to keep the lights on will always use people's fears, whatever those fears may be - some call it need or demand - as a marketing tool.

                            The general public's ignorance of what's available, and a greater ignorance of available tools to help them make what they see as the best solutions to their situations in terms of both practical considerations as well as economics makes for fertile ground for suppliers of possible solutions.

                            As for the IOU's, they will e/de-volve and adapt, or they will die and some other system will provide power to the masses. Either or any way, the ignorant will, as always, take it in the shorts and if they notice anything, wonder what happened.

                            Neither suppliers nor users of power are the problem. The problem is ignorance.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                              I'm not trying to start an argument here, but IMO only, once the lights go out it's probably about the only factor that will drive a majority of folks to batteries or ICE generators until the POCO power comes back on. Then, demand will continue to rise slowly with sales to the niche market of early adoptors and treehuggers until the next time the POCO power goes out. Then, another blip in the market will occur.
                              No argument here. I guess some of that depends on how one defines a niche market. I have described off grid as a niche market and I have read an estimate of 180,000 people in the US live off grid. It may still be a larger niche than household batteries at this time. In California that may be changing but I don't have any numbers about people off the grid in California.
                              I think the public power outages are creating fear of uncertainty and that is driving the current demand for batteries and generators. What some people predict, when the cost of batteries come down, is that the combination with solar will make self consumption competitive with peak pricing. Then the market will not just be limited to tree huggers and early adopters. In California with the requirement of solar on new homes it won't take long for home builders to see an opportunity to upsell people on adding household battery storage.
                              ..........

                              Neither suppliers nor users of power are the problem. The problem is ignorance.
                              I agree ignorance is the root of most problems. In my neck of the woods, ignorance of the consequences of deferred maintenance has caused PGE to face billions in liabilities for damages caused by wildfires. It is easier to solve deferred maintenance than ignorance. SDGE did a good job of dealing with deferred maintenance in the last ten years compared to PGE.

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