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  • Rooftop solar electricity on pace to beat coal, oil

    "Rooftop solar electricity on pace to beat coal, oil"

    http://www.computerworld.com/article...-coal-oil.html

  • #2
    Deutsche Bank must have some skin in the game. Basically a repeat of last month's press.
    CS6P-260P/SE3000 - http://tiny.cc/ed5ozx

    Comment


    • #3
      Bull by participating parties - The computer nerd who wrote the one article is a one off in solar reporting - he got a press release from somewhere. Basically they claim that if you only follow the bankrupt German model of massive 20 year subsidies people will go solar. Sure they do - the neighbor is paying their electric bill.
      [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

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      • #4
        It's a good topic of conversation to compare the cost of different industrial production methods, but doesn't have a lot to do with my bank account.

        For me and my family's finances, it doesn't matter what the industrial cost of production, or the wholesale price of power is. I only have to concern myself with the retail prices I have to pay when buying from my utility. My rates are currently about $0.17/kWh for the first half of my use, and $0.30/kWh for the second half.

        It's sort of like choosing whether to eat dinner at a restaurant or at home. The restaurant may have much lower supply prices and a more efficient kitchen, but they still have to pay rent, salaries, and make a profit. So a steak dinner at home may cost $15 vs. $30 at the restaurant even though they pay less for the ingredients. Likewise with solar- the commercially installed system I'm looking at would break even in 12 years with no subsidies, or 8 with the 30% federal subsidy.

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        • #5
          Hi All,

          I like this thread. Just as a matter of interest jimqpublic what sized commercial system are you looking at? Cheers

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          • #6
            It's a 6 kW system of 22x275 watt panels hopefully to be completed in about 4 weeks. This would offset 100% of our use based on the past 12 months, but we plan to increase our use by about 1/3 if we get an electric car and use more air conditioning.

            My personal economic analysis was much different than the canned presentations by all the sales people. Very few had a good understanding of current and proposed Southern California Edison rate structures, nor did most comprehend the Time Of Use billing structure. They just looked at my average rate now (about $0.23/kWh) and predicted that it would keep going up at a steady percent per year.

            Just based on my use today, and rate structure today, I should have gone for about a 4 kW system and switched to TOU metering. The reason I went to a bigger system was the concern that after 2017 the utility (SCE) might not be required to accept new net metering accounts with the same favorable terms I will be getting. By getting the system now, I know that I will pay very little to the utility for the next 20 years. Even if I have to replace some components the system will be grandfathered in.

            You could say I'm taking advantage of the utility by forcing them to bank my overproduction. On the other hand they have gotten plenty of checks from me at tier 4 prices to pay off their bad business decisions and profit. (Bad contracts for delivery, bad decisions on an overpriced nuke plant, etc.)

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            • #7
              Originally posted by jimqpublic View Post
              It's a 6 kW system of 22x275 watt panels hopefully to be completed in about 4 weeks. This would offset 100% of our use based on the past 12 months, but we plan to increase our use by about 1/3 if we get an electric car and use more air conditioning.

              My personal economic analysis was much different than the canned presentations by all the sales people. Very few had a good understanding of current and proposed Southern California Edison rate structures, nor did most comprehend the Time Of Use billing structure. They just looked at my average rate now (about $0.23/kWh) and predicted that it would keep going up at a steady percent per year.

              Just based on my use today, and rate structure today, I should have gone for about a 4 kW system and switched to TOU metering. The reason I went to a bigger system was the concern that after 2017 the utility (SCE) might not be required to accept new net metering accounts with the same favorable terms I will be getting. By getting the system now, I know that I will pay very little to the utility for the next 20 years. Even if I have to replace some components the system will be grandfathered in.

              You could say I'm taking advantage of the utility by forcing them to bank my overproduction. On the other hand they have gotten plenty of checks from me at tier 4 prices to pay off their bad business decisions and profit. (Bad contracts for delivery, bad decisions on an overpriced nuke plant, etc.)
              FWIW, While it may be still available in the future, I'd plan on net metering in CA being a very different animal after the 5% cap is reached (whenever that occurs). Until then, plan on ~~ $.04 -$.05/kWh for excess production and maybe a bit more or a lot more depending on how the CPUC values solar production in the future. I'd read AB 327 and POCO website for more info on NEM cap and future valuations for excess production.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post
                FWIW, While it may be still available in the future, I'd plan on net metering in CA being a very different animal after the 5% cap is reached (whenever that occurs). Until then, plan on ~~ $.04 -$.05/kWh for excess production and maybe a bit more or a lot more depending on how the CPUC values solar production in the future. I'd read AB 327 and POCO website for more info on NEM cap and future valuations for excess production.
                I've often wondered what exactly will happen as net metering caps are hit. If I recall correctly, here in NY the original cap was 1% of 2005 demand (baseline). That was bumped up recently to 3%. I think the concept of net metering is very beneficial to participating customers as you are essentially trading energy with the grid without a "cost" for doing so. The utility is providing this service with minimal, or no charge at all (service/metering charges). I would think as these caps are hit the utilities will define a rate structure that is a bit more beneficial to them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by PVpower View Post
                  I've often wondered what exactly will happen as net metering caps are hit. If I recall correctly, here in NY the original cap was 1% of 2005 demand (baseline). That was bumped up recently to 3%. I think the concept of net metering is very beneficial to participating customers as you are essentially trading energy with the grid without a "cost" for doing so. The utility is providing this service with minimal, or no charge at all (service/metering charges). I would think as these caps are hit the utilities will define a rate structure that is a bit more beneficial to them.
                  I'd guess what will happen depends on what politicians and the powers that be want to happen and what those powers are willing to pay politicians to accomplish what they want. Other than that, probably not much.

                  Meanwhile, all the sheeple bitch & grouse & whine about the cost of electricity, and continue to (mostly) cluelessly throw expensive solar at self inflicted ever larger electric bills in ever greater numbers.

                  As a matter of common sense, net metering as a business model makes little if any (sense) - based on the idea that it's hard to make a profit if you sell something for the same price you pay - probably even harder to explain it to your stockholders. As a practical matter, net metering is unsustainable and impractical as a long term solution.

                  I'm a big fan of the idea of solar use and I take advantage of net metering - it's money on the table. However, trying to be hard headed and objective about it, it seems today, as back in the '70's, all too often, and as with most other things, solar energy use is being prostituted by slugs and hucksters to screw the ignorant. Net metering may be part of what is enabling that screwing to continue.

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                  • #10
                    The utility should have to pay the wholesale cost of the power produced - no more. Even then people would get to use the grid as a battery.
                    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jimqpublic View Post
                      It's a 6 kW system of 22x275 watt panels hopefully to be completed in about 4 weeks. This would offset 100% of our use based on the past 12 months, but we plan to increase our use by about 1/3 if we get an electric car and use more air conditioning.

                      My personal economic analysis was much different than the canned presentations by all the sales people. Very few had a good understanding of current and proposed Southern California Edison rate structures, nor did most comprehend the Time Of Use billing structure. They just looked at my average rate now (about $0.23/kWh) and predicted that it would keep going up at a steady percent per year.

                      Just based on my use today, and rate structure today, I should have gone for about a 4 kW system and switched to TOU metering. The reason I went to a bigger system was the concern that after 2017 the utility (SCE) might not be required to accept new net metering accounts with the same favorable terms I will be getting. By getting the system now, I know that I will pay very little to the utility for the next 20 years. Even if I have to replace some components the system will be grandfathered in.

                      You could say I'm taking advantage of the utility by forcing them to bank my overproduction. On the other hand they have gotten plenty of checks from me at tier 4 prices to pay off their bad business decisions and profit. (Bad contracts for delivery, bad decisions on an overpriced nuke plant, etc.)
                      Thanks for the reply, yeah my heart bleeds for the utilities companies too. Over here we had an initial .44cent per kilowatt hour net meter scheme and solar boomed as it was very generous, then it dropped to .23cents and the solar slowed a bit, but not much so they dropped the fit to .8cents and that has seen a bit of a correction, not a bad one really, where the solar is now being bought by those who use a lot of power during the day. I think a fit should be based on the wholesaler price per kilowatt as it seems fair to me, having the solar in the system helps the poco on hot days, we have fewer blackouts here now than we used to. Cheers and good luck with your new system.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I agree with russ and many others that solar producers must accept wholesale price for the power they export to the grid, even after subsidies and tax credits disappear.

                        Once solar becomes the low cost producer in the entire energy marketplace, then real growth and market share can be accomplished. We're not there yet but the trend is there. It is all about the cost of production without the subsidies. Hopefully in the meantime we can get a breakthrough in either energy storage or energy transmission, then the deal is done.

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