Charging an Electric Car

[J.P.M.]

The jury is still out on long term EV ownership. But they are
more complex than what came before them, which tends toward
more frequent and complex failures. Cars did steadily improve
in reliability and elegant design. IC cars can last too, there is a
Honda here now needing me to replace the clutch, after 459,000
miles.

Long term remains to be seen for EVs. The biggest issue I have
with IC cars at 4 decades, is pipes and wires running between
front and back rust out. Bearing grease dries out in a couple
decades. Will EVs be immune to these?

Are the EVs 4 wheel drive? Otherwise, regenerative braking will
only be applied to 2 wheels, not a good thing esp in poor conditions.

At the moment much of the population cannot afford an EV, and the
grid could not support a complete conversion, so it will be a while to
see how it all plays out. Bruce Roe

Bruce, seems that you and I and it sounds (reads) like SunEagle as well are of a mind that we drive a vehicle until the wheels fall off and repair it until it's no longer serviceable. I'd bet we are becoming a more rare breed these days, not only because of how long we keep a vehicle, but also that we do a lot or at least more of our own vehicle servicing than many/most folks. I'd suggest that older vehicles probably need more service.

While I'd agree that a vehicle with 2 motive systems - an electric motor and an ICE have more parts that make for problems due to the KISS principle, it seems to me that vehicles of all types are more reliable than in the past with some or a lot of that due to the fact that vehicles are kept for shorter periods than in the past by more people.

If a vehicle has, say, 4X as many failure points than, say, 30 years ago because of multiple motive systems and probably more dodads and stuff that allows us all to get more stupid but the MTBF is an order of magnitude longer than 30 years ago due to better mfg. processes, material and QC, maybe those improved facets of mfg. are sufficient to make today's vehicles of all types more reliable - whatever criteria are used to define reliability, compared to the past, even if we're driving more miles per year or other time period.

[solardreamer]

The jury is still out on long term EV ownership. But they are
more complex than what came before them, which tends toward
more frequent and complex failures.

I agree the jury is still out. However, what leads you to think EV is more complex than ICE cars?

[SunEagle]

...

And yes, if people stop buying gasoline, the price goes down if there is too much gasoline (or jet fuel or diesel) available.

Spoken like all the rest of the people that believe going green is the right thing to do no matter how much it may cost the rest of us.

IMO the price of gas will only come down if the people that run the oil companies feel it is necessary not because people use less.

[bcroe]

The jury is still out on long term EV ownership. But they are
more complex than what came before them, which tends toward
more frequent and complex failures. Cars did steadily improve
in reliability and elegant design. IC cars can last too, there is a
Honda here now needing me to replace the clutch, after 459,000
miles.

Long term remains to be seen for EVs. The biggest issue I have
with IC cars at 4 decades, is pipes and wires running between
front and back rust out. Bearing grease dries out in a couple
decades. Will EVs be immune to these?

Are the EVs 4 wheel drive? Otherwise, regenerative braking will
only be applied to 2 wheels, not a good thing esp in poor conditions.

At the moment much of the population cannot afford an EV, and the
grid could not support a complete conversion, so it will be a while to
see how it all plays out. Bruce Roe

[azdave]

I paid $60k for my Tesla 4 years ago. It was the most expensive car I have bought.

Some of us live much differently. I doubt I've spent $60K on my cars combined in the last 30 years. I've never paid more than $10K for any vehicle and that was almost 30 years ago and the last time I ever had a car loan. I'm 63 and learned long ago not to play the new car game. Never purchased anything newer than 8 years old or less than 60,000 miles. The newest car we have is 16 years old. Three of our daily drivers have over 200,000 miles and one is over 300,000. Safety is so much better in cars of the last 20 years that to me it is not even a consideration when I purchase. I'm just as likely to die in a fall at home as I am in a car accident.

Not sure I'll ever buy an EV but I'm sure they will eventually become the dominant vehicle type, if not by choice, then by mandate.

[Ward L]

At least for the Tesla, the Cadillac of EVs (pretty funny), the Model 3 got a 5-star safety rating in all the categories from the government. No other car has had as high marks for safety. Since the battery is on the bottom between the wheels, the car has a very low center of gravity. There was a Tesla Model X video where they slam it sideways into a sand box. It rolls over and then rolls back up-right. They could not get the Model X to stay upside down in this test. The Tesla cars are very safe.

As far as reliability, I've only got 40k miles on my Model 3 but it is holding up very well. EVs are hard on tires since they tend to weigh a little more than ICE vehicles. As far as routine maintenance, for EVs: no oil changes, filter changes, no spark plugs to change no coolant changes, no new brake pads (they use electrical regen to slow down and you rarely need to apply the brakes), no tune-ups, no smog checks, the freeze plugs don't fail, no power steering pump failure (they have servos or something to steer), no gas to buy. And you can wake up every morning with a full tank of electrons! Just to rub it in a little, I paid $60k for my Tesla 4 years ago. It was the most expensive car I have bought. Today, supposedly it is worth $55k in the used car market. So at least this point in time, the Tesla is probably the LEAST expensive car I have ever purchased. Yeah, yeah, I have a reservation for an UGLY Cybertruck. Reservation number ~43,000. Well ahead of the average of 1,000,000 Cybertruck reservations. The 203 Tundra had two 4-star ratings and one 1-star ratings. It doesn't mean much to say "I haven't hear of any safety issues".

And yes, if people stop buying gasoline, the price goes down if there is too much gasoline (or jet fuel or diesel) available.

[SunEagle]

How safe is the truck you are doing now?

I have not heard of any "safe" issues with my 2003 Tundra. The couple of recalls that I got have been dealt with and it now has about 232000 mile on it with probably another 100k left in it.

[J.P.M.]

I have hear nothing about how the EVs do in accidents, or long term
maintenance. My suspicion is both will be troublesome. I have avoided
most costs with IC cars that are cheap to buy and cheap to maintain,
my favorite driver is 45 years old. Complex cars become consumables,
adding to the original cost if repairing them becomes out of reach.

Other issues, that 300 mile range is on good weather days on the flat
plaines, it will be drastically reduced trying to haul a lot of weight over
the mountains in the worst of winter. Something done here.

I see electrics as working for local deliveries, local drivers, and rental cars
for those who flew in. The railroads could go all electric, but they are
already so energy efficient, I think we should leave them alone. Bruce Roe

As for the railroads, I'd agree that it would be a mistake to mess with them too much. Most big rail prime movers are already electric in a sense. The common arrangement for the big machines hailing 100 + cars - although not universal - is for a diesel engine to power an electric generator that supplies power to electric traction motors. I guess they could be called hybrid vehicles.

There are or have been a few designs where a diesel drives the wheels through what might be called a transmission but transferring the power to the wheels makes for a lot of complexities with attendant problems.

[bcroe]

I have hear nothing about how the EVs do in accidents, or long term
maintenance. My suspicion is both will be troublesome. I have avoided
most costs with IC cars that are cheap to buy and cheap to maintain,
my favorite driver is 45 years old. Complex cars become consumables,
adding to the original cost if repairing them becomes out of reach.

Other issues, that 300 mile range is on good weather days on the flat
plaines, it will be drastically reduced trying to haul a lot of weight over
the mountains in the worst of winter. Something done here.

I see electrics as working for local deliveries, local drivers, and rental cars
for those who flew in. The railroads could go all electric, but they are
already so energy efficient, I think we should leave them alone. Bruce Roe

[Ampster]

If they are safe then I would support them.

How safe is the truck you are doing now?

[DanS26]

If they are safe then I would support them.

Safer than the Chevy Volt.......

[SunEagle]

You will not have to wait long......the 300 mile EV for $15k is just around the corner from China. It will disrupt the entire automobile market. Will the entrench interests and politicians allow it?......that is the question.

If they are safe then I would support them.

[DanS26]

Maybe what you say is true. One can only hope prices will come down for those reasons instead of what I feel is the root cause. But that is another story.

The sad part is that EV's are still not cheap or available all over the US like they are in some places. But the infrastructure is changing (slowly) and charging stations for all type of EV's will start to pop up. I just think it will not happen in my area as fast as it may happen in cities.

You will not have to wait long......the 300 mile EV for $15k is just around the corner from China. It will disrupt the entire automobile market. Will the entrench interests and politicians allow it?......that is the question.

[SunEagle]

Supply and demand still holds.

When there's a supply shortage, every gasoline refinery can charge whatever they like. But if they are producing even 1% more than they need, then it starts to pile up. So refinery A says "hey, price it a little lower to move this gas; we will then also get more of the market." Refinery A gets more of the market. Refinery B then realizes they have to reduce prices to remain competitive and move THEIR product. And so on and so on. They all want that sweet, sweet cash.

This has been going on forever, and it's why gas prices have been going up and down. In 1980, gas was $4.10 a gallon (adjusted for 2022 dollars.) One of the results of this were higher CAFE standards that drove MPG numbers up and consumption down. Gas prices started dropping as well. They went from $4.10 a gallon to $1.85 by 1998. This was due primarily to the increase in fuel efficiency; gas demand actually went down from 1980 to 1985. It did not return to 1980 levels until about 10 years later. Then gas prices started rising again.

More recently, during the pandemic, gas demand cratered. It went from 9 million barrels a day to 6 million; gas prices dropped with it. Oil prices followed suit. Tight oil (i.e. oil obtained by fracking) is not economical below about $70 a barrel - so many oil companies shut down their fracking operations.

Then 2022 rolled around and everyone's FOMO had them buying gas and driving everywhere to make up for lost time. Consumption rose dramatically - and so did prices.

In the short term gas prices will remain high. They are actually historically about average; today they are around $4.17 per gallon compared with $4.10 in 1980 (again in adjusted dollars.) They will remain that way for a short time as the summer driving season kicks in. Then as oil companies ramp up production and demand slows at the end of the summer it will drop again. In the long term they will continue to drop as EV's and higher CAFE requirements reduce the demand for gas.

Maybe what you say is true. One can only hope prices will come down for those reasons instead of what I feel is the root cause. But that is another story.

The sad part is that EV's are still not cheap or available all over the US like they are in some places. But the infrastructure is changing (slowly) and charging stations for all type of EV's will start to pop up. I just think it will not happen in my area as fast as it may happen in cities.

[jflorey2]

One thing I learned when my father and uncle use to work for one of the big oil companies is that other companies will purchase the gasoline and any other product that they produce. You can't hurt an oil company by not purchasing their product because someone else will.

Supply and demand still holds.

When there's a supply shortage, every gasoline refinery can charge whatever they like. But if they are producing even 1% more than they need, then it starts to pile up. So refinery A says "hey, price it a little lower to move this gas; we will then also get more of the market." Refinery A gets more of the market. Refinery B then realizes they have to reduce prices to remain competitive and move THEIR product. And so on and so on. They all want that sweet, sweet cash.

This has been going on forever, and it's why gas prices have been going up and down. In 1980, gas was $4.10 a gallon (adjusted for 2022 dollars.) One of the results of this were higher CAFE standards that drove MPG numbers up and consumption down. Gas prices started dropping as well. They went from $4.10 a gallon to $1.85 by 1998. This was due primarily to the increase in fuel efficiency; gas demand actually went down from 1980 to 1985. It did not return to 1980 levels until about 10 years later. Then gas prices started rising again.

More recently, during the pandemic, gas demand cratered. It went from 9 million barrels a day to 6 million; gas prices dropped with it. Oil prices followed suit. Tight oil (i.e. oil obtained by fracking) is not economical below about $70 a barrel - so many oil companies shut down their fracking operations.

Then 2022 rolled around and everyone's FOMO had them buying gas and driving everywhere to make up for lost time. Consumption rose dramatically - and so did prices.

In the short term gas prices will remain high. They are actually historically about average; today they are around $4.17 per gallon compared with $4.10 in 1980 (again in adjusted dollars.) They will remain that way for a short time as the summer driving season kicks in. Then as oil companies ramp up production and demand slows at the end of the summer it will drop again. In the long term they will continue to drop as EV's and higher CAFE requirements reduce the demand for gas.