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You don't have a clear sense because its a random thing. I'm a bit of an armchair astronomer, and while I'm no expert on our Sun, its my understanding that X class flares happen almost every month when the sun is NOT at the bottom of its solar cycle. These X class flares are usually not at the Carrington level however, and the Earth is usually not in the path of the CME direction. Carrington level flares happen almost every Solar cycle at some point, but again, we have to be in its path and we usually aren't. The Carrington event was estimated to be an X class in the 25 to 50 range.
Back in 2003, a Carrington level flare erupted from the sun but just brushed pass us. It saturated the radiation detectors on one of our satellites which was capable of measuring up to X20 or something like, that and that satellite wasn't even in the middle. Then again, in 2012, a monster X flare just missed earth by a few days. It was the equivalent of a bullet missing your head by 3 inches. NASA had a satellite that was trailing Earth's orbit that was designed to measure the flares and it was saturated past its capability as well. They say had we got hit with that one, we'd still be recovering from it. Maybe NASA should build better satellites?
The direct odds of a Carrington level event hitting us are 12% per decade. If I recall correctly, they originally put it at 10%, then adjusted up a bit after more data. The last one to hit us was the Carrington event so we're overdue. Of course, as you probably know, just because you bet on red or black doesn't mean each will come up 50% of the time in any given time frame.
The good thing about a catastrophic CME is that it puts the entire planet in the same boat. A nuclear EMP however, just makes one geographic area vulnerable.
From what I can tell from studying Bosnia, when the power goes off for more than a couple weeks, society is going to self destruct in the worst imaginable way.
Back in 2003, a Carrington level flare erupted from the sun but just brushed pass us. It saturated the radiation detectors on one of our satellites which was capable of measuring up to X20 or something like, that and that satellite wasn't even in the middle. Then again, in 2012, a monster X flare just missed earth by a few days. It was the equivalent of a bullet missing your head by 3 inches. NASA had a satellite that was trailing Earth's orbit that was designed to measure the flares and it was saturated past its capability as well. They say had we got hit with that one, we'd still be recovering from it. Maybe NASA should build better satellites?
The direct odds of a Carrington level event hitting us are 12% per decade. If I recall correctly, they originally put it at 10%, then adjusted up a bit after more data. The last one to hit us was the Carrington event so we're overdue. Of course, as you probably know, just because you bet on red or black doesn't mean each will come up 50% of the time in any given time frame.
The good thing about a catastrophic CME is that it puts the entire planet in the same boat. A nuclear EMP however, just makes one geographic area vulnerable.
From what I can tell from studying Bosnia, when the power goes off for more than a couple weeks, society is going to self destruct in the worst imaginable way.
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