NJ SREC 2018 Vintage Prices and best time to Sell

[antiriad]

It seems that the 2018 SREC Vintage for New Jersey is going to around $170 from about $220 the year before (2017 Vintage). The prices might fluctuate a little but Flett's recommendation is to sell the SREC consistently during the year to get an average price and not hold.

Based on your experience when it the best times to sell around the year?

According to the charts from previous NJ SREC Vintages I have the following observations.

1. End of September and Mid January there seem to be the highest recorded prices for the year.
2. Early to Mid November and mid to end of February the prices are the lowest
3. End of March there tends to be a small spike in the price but nothing like September-January

Based on PVWATTS Calculations I am estimating I will have 2 or maybe even 3 SRECs by End of September(System turned up end of June) and around 1 or 2 by Mid January.
My system will generate about 7 SRECs per year.

Are there any recommendations when is the best time to Sell. It seems it might be good idea to sell 2 or 3 times a year.

Thanks

Mike

[JSchnee21]

Hello antiriad I was wondering the same thing. I was hoping that NJ SREC's would hold up around $200 for the foreseeable future. But given this news from Flett and the general trend to oversupply PV MWh in NJ, I'm concerned that SREC pricing will be crashing in the next few years and will end up like PA unless the legislature intervenes.

Unfortunately, there's nothing I can do about it now . My money's already (recently) spent. Hoping to make ~15MWh a year with my 12.2kW system. I had hoped to break even in about 5 or 6 years, but SREC's make up ~60% of my annual savings/revenue.

I guess if we cross our fingers and hope for a progressively minded governor and state legislature perhaps they'll move up the renewable production targets to incentivize demand -- though I wouldn't hold my breath.

I've got 2 MWh's already, just waiting for my installer to finish my GATS registration. At this point the "dollar cost averaging" model of selling one SREC each month or so is probably the safest best unless we start to see a significant run up.

[macaddict]

I wrote to my elected official in the NJ senate to find out what the legislature is doing in terms of improving the SREC narket and this is what he said:

Thank you for your email.

Senate Bill 2276 would establish the "New Jersey Solar Energy Study Commission" and modify the State's solar renewable energy portfolio standards. Under current law, electric power suppliers and basic generation service providers must generate a certain percentage of their electricity from solar electric power generators. The bill will modify the law to require electric power suppliers and basic generation service providers to generate a greater percentage of solar energy each year.

S-2276 was passed in the Senate but has not been voted on in the Assembly.

Do not hesitate to contact me in the future if I can assist you.

Sincerely,
Mike Doherty Senator,
District 23
127 Belvidere Ave., 2nd Floor
Washington, NJ 07882
908-835-0552

[macaddict]

I wrote to my representative in the NJ senate about improving the SREC marketplace and this is what I got back:

Thank you for your email.

Senate Bill 2276 would establish the "New Jersey Solar Energy Study Commission" and modify the State's solar renewable energy portfolio standards. Under current law, electric power suppliers and basic generation service providers must generate a certain percentage of their electricity from solar electric power generators. The bill will modify the law to require electric power suppliers and basic generation service providers to generate a greater percentage of solar energy each year.

S-2276 was passed in the Senate but has not been voted on in the Assembly.

Do not hesitate to contact me in the future if I can assist you.

Sincerely,
Mike Doherty Senator,
District 23