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CSIRO and Australia grid industry association roadmap to 100% clean energy by 2050

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  • #16
    Supporting documents mentioned in the plan are at http://www.energynetworks.com.au/roadmap-publications

    I rather doubt it's a propaganda exercise - the detailed documents give it a bit more heft.


    17kw. I like science, but I'm no expert.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
      It would be great to see more renewables in the grid. 100% simply isn't practical; it's not even a good goal, because getting that last 10 - 20 - 40% to be renewable is going to be far more costly,
      Well, how about 60% renewable, then?

      Speaking of costs, I hear KIUC just bought a solar peaker plant (28 MW PV, 20 MW battery with 5 hours storage), total cost per kWh said to be 11 cents.
      They said it's cheaper than oil-fired power, which evidently is what they currently use.
      Doesn't do anything about baseload, but it does help with the evening peak.

      I'd link to the story, but the forum operator doesn't like links...
      17kw. I like science, but I'm no expert.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by DanKegel View Post

        Well, how about 60% renewable, then?

        Speaking of costs, I hear KIUC just bought a solar peaker plant (28 MW PV, 20 MW battery with 5 hours storage), total cost per kWh said to be 11 cents.
        They said it's cheaper than oil-fired power, which evidently is what they currently use.
        Doesn't do anything about baseload, but it does help with the evening peak.

        I'd link to the story, but the forum operator doesn't like links...
        Dan. IMO 60% is a reachable goal for some places in the US. To get there will require some type of solar energy storage system.

        Once you include a battery of any existing chemical makeup the cost to generate goes way up. So I am not sure where they came up with that 11 cents/kWh for a 28MW pv system which includes a 20MW battery. There must have been a lot of rebates or incentives to get the installed price low enough for that figure.

        Since utility sized pv systems are now below $0.10/kWh but not low enough to get the overall price with a battery down to $0.11/kWh.

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        • #19
          By the way how is your PV system doing with all that rain CA is getting?

          At least the reservoirs are filling up again.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
            By the way how is your PV system doing with all that rain CA is getting?

            At least the reservoirs are filling up again.
            If that's a general question meant for CA posters, good news/bad news. Good news: The rain helps the drought and the arrays are cleaner. Bad news: Array production sucks (example: As of yesterday My 31 prior day production is ~ 75% of what the models suggest and ~ 70 % of my 4 yr average for the same 31 day period).

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            • #21
              Originally posted by DanKegel View Post
              I'd link to the story, but the forum operator doesn't like links...
              And especially useless links from you as I believe you've been stopped from doing by Solar Pete for, as I seem to recall, posting useless crap like the stuff you just referenced.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by DanKegel View Post
                Well, how about 60% renewable, then? .
                Here we go again. I thought we got rid of Dan once and for good. It was peaceful around here for a couple of weeks. Take a hint Dan, get lost. You are not welcome here.

                MSEE, PE

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post

                  If that's a general question meant for CA posters, good news/bad news. Good news: The rain helps the drought and the arrays are cleaner. Bad news: Array production sucks (example: As of yesterday My 31 prior day production is ~ 75% of what the models suggest and ~ 70 % of my 4 yr average for the same 31 day period).
                  Yes it was a general question to all of our CA members.

                  I like the idea of you finally getting some rain but the amount is causing a lot of flooding and as you pointed out, very low solar production.

                  That type of weather has to put a kink into the state's plan of going to a higher RE production % goal.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by DanKegel View Post
                    Well, how about 60% renewable, then?
                    Easily achievable if you include breeder reactors for baseline power. Very hard if you try to do it with storage. That's a LOT of storage.
                    Speaking of costs, I hear KIUC just bought a solar peaker plant (28 MW PV, 20 MW battery with 5 hours storage), total cost per kWh said to be 11 cents.
                    I assume you mean 20MWhr battery.

                    If so, that's great. But new installations of PV-only systems (like the one in Chile) are coming in at 2.9 cents per kwhr. So that means the actual cost of storage (since it represents about 11% of the power generated) is around 92 cents/kwhr. It would make a whole lot more sense (to me) to use that money and build small modular reactor, and get baseline power for 10 to 25 cents a kwhr (depending who you believe.) That would do far more to reduce oil imports than a PV+storage system.

                    Then take the money you saved and build some pumped storage, and you could do a lot to help Hawaii reduce its power costs and improve its utility reliability. (Note that most of what the pumped storage would do is to save power from the reactor, since they run best when they run at a constant power output.)

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by SunEagle View Post
                      By the way how is your PV system doing with all that rain CA is getting?
                      pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=38786
                      About half what it was in November. Still get 10kWh most days; a few isolated days were 5 or 6 kWh. Very happy to have the snowpack, though!
                      Last edited by DanKegel; 01-11-2017, 02:23 PM.
                      17kw. I like science, but I'm no expert.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
                        I assume you mean 20MWhr battery.
                        Nope, I really did mean 20 MW. It's a 20 MW, 100 MWh battery.
                        17kw. I like science, but I'm no expert.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by DanKegel View Post
                          Nope, I really did mean 20 MW. It's a 20 MW, 100 MWh battery.
                          OK then you are at 25 cents a kwhr. You're still better off (IMO) with a larger, cleaner baseload plant in terms of reducing oil imports and pollution.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by jflorey2 View Post
                            OK then you are at 25 cents a kwhr.
                            Hrm. You said "So that means the actual cost of storage (since it represents about 11% of the power generated) is around 92 cents/kwhr. ..."
                            but I'm not sure that 11% figure is accurate. How do you get that 25 cents / kWh for storage, exactly?

                            Assuming that 28 MW array generates 140 MWh/day on average, and that they only use 50% of the advertised 100 MWh of the battery,
                            about a third of the energy that hits the grid is from the battery.
                            I think that's an underestimate, as Hawaii is awash in solar, and really wanted to shift all that energy to evening; if DOD is 80%, about 57% of the energy is via the battery. (Right?)

                            Also, the cheapest US farm so far is 3.5 cents/kWh.
                            So lessee: 11 cents/kWh = 3.5 cents/kWh + (cost of storage * capacity factor of storage) = 3.5 + x / 3, so x = (11 - 3.5) * 3 = 22.5 cents/kWh if DOD is 50%, and (11 - 3.5) / 0.57 = 13 cents / kWh if DOD is 80%. (And assuming I made no math errors, ha.)

                            Depending on how you read it, lazard.com/media/438042/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-v20.pdf agrees with both of us

                            Guess we'll have to wait to hear more details from Kuwaii.
                            17kw. I like science, but I'm no expert.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by DanKegel View Post

                              Hrm. You said "So that means the actual cost of storage (since it represents about 11% of the power generated) is around 92 cents/kwhr. ..."
                              but I'm not sure that 11% figure is accurate. How do you get that 25 cents / kWh for storage, exactly?

                              Assuming that 28 MW array generates 140 MWh/day on average, and that they only use 50% of the advertised 100 MWh of the battery,
                              about a third of the energy that hits the grid is from the battery.
                              I think that's an underestimate, as Hawaii is awash in solar, and really wanted to shift all that energy to evening; if DOD is 80%, about 57% of the energy is via the battery. (Right?)

                              Also, the cheapest US farm so far is 3.5 cents/kWh.
                              So lessee: 11 cents/kWh = 3.5 cents/kWh + (cost of storage * capacity factor of storage) = 3.5 + x / 3, so x = (11 - 3.5) * 3 = 22.5 cents/kWh if DOD is 50%, and (11 - 3.5) / 0.57 = 13 cents / kWh if DOD is 80%. (And assuming I made no math errors, ha.)

                              Depending on how you read it, lazard.com/media/438042/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-v20.pdf agrees with both of us

                              Guess we'll have to wait to hear more details from Kuwaii.
                              You are assuming the cost of pv is only 3.5 cents/kWh. That is on the low side and not the average cost of even a utility sized system and probably does not reflect the actual generating cost of that 28 MW system we are talking about.

                              All I am saying is that as of now , while the cost to generate power from pv is coming down the cost to generate power from a battery is still pretty high and if you average in the number of days the pv system does not produce anything or very little, then the cost to generate power from the battery goes up because you may use more than 80% DOD and shorten the lifespan..

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by SunEagle View Post

                                Yes it was a general question to all of our CA members.

                                I like the idea of you finally getting some rain but the amount is causing a lot of flooding and as you pointed out, very low solar production.

                                That type of weather has to put a kink into the state's plan of going to a higher RE production % goal.
                                Flooding is a common problem this time of year. Lack of foresight and will to do the obvious and make what may be tough choices is probably behind a lot of it.

                                As for plans, one rainy season doesn't change the long term outlook for R.E. as much as a 6 year drought, or a change in administrations probably will. Besides, central generation is predominantly out in the desert. So while production is impacted temporarily, even that is not a severe as it might be if located closer to the coast and/or farther north.

                                What might have an impact is if/when a lot of rain over an extended period causes roof leaks due to shoddy blow'n' go installers' poor work. Tarps on arrays are hard to disguise. Word spreads quickly and maybe out of proportion to actual number of problems.

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