Natural gas plants having trouble competing with solar?

[SunEagle]

Dan

Most people would not have a clue how to add anything to their appliance to shift the time of the load. Also if their existing appliances are more than 5 years old (which IMO is pretty common) non of them may have a microprocessor in them. Mine don't and they are only 4 years old made by Whirlpool. To replace them would cost me thousands which will only happen when I decide to move into my retirement home.

You have to stop minimizing the work and costs needed for people to have "smart" appliances so they use less power at night. Maybe the people of CA can buy those things but for the rest of the country it would be a big barrier.

Just ask all them people that live up in Wyoming, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Montana. With the coal industry going away so will most of their jobs.

[DanKegel]

Dan
Most people would not have a clue how to add anything to their appliance to shift the time of the load.

Correct. This would be for new appliances; old appliances would continue on their merry way until they aged out and are replaced (or possibly until some energy efficiency incentive program pays the homeowner to upgrade 'em early).

Appliances last 10-15 years, so if new appliances are equipped with this now, the average homeowner would be all set by 2030 or so.

Remember, climate change is a long game. A lot of preparation has to happen well in advance.

I don't think adding $10 to the cost of an appliance is going to be a hardship for anyone.

[DanKegel]

Have you heard of Bring Your Own Thermostat demand response programs? Utilities give you cash to go buy a smart thermostat of your choice supporting OpenADR, and then on peak days, they can use OpenADR to gently reduce load from participants.
It's been around for several years. No reason OpenADR support couldn't be baked in to more appliances, even low-end ones. Chips are cheap.

Change can be gradual. Features like this can be required on new homes and in new appliances, and higher nighttime charges can be waived for baseline allocations until these features are widespread.

[jflorey2]

Most people would not have a clue how to add anything to their appliance to shift the time of the load. Also if their existing appliances are more than 5 years old (which IMO is pretty common) non of them may have a microprocessor in them. Mine don't and they are only 4 years old made by Whirlpool. To replace them would cost me thousands which will only happen when I decide to move into my retirement home.

You have to stop minimizing the work and costs needed for people to have "smart" appliances so they use less power at night. Maybe the people of CA can buy those things but for the rest of the country it would be a big barrier.

That will change with time - not because people will get smarter, or because they'll be willing to spend more money, but because that's just what manufacturers will do as a matter of course.

When the first computerized engine controls came out, people scoffed at the idea of putting a computer in your car. Well, maybe rich snobs could afford a computer in your car, but regular people? Never. And yet today they are the standard because in the long run they are just plain better economics. They are cheaper and they work better than the sort of mechanical/pneumatic kludges that car designers once used to control mixture and spark timing.

When the idea of digital recording of TV came out, people scoffed again. Who is going to pay for the high speed hard drives, fast processors and video encoders/decoders for that - AND spend hours getting it all to work together? Rich brainiacs on the nerd patrol, maybe. Now Tivo's are $79.99, and 75% of the people in the US have one.

Automation in home appliances is going to come about because it will be cheaper to put a processor in a washing machine than a mechanical timer. And utilities (more specifically load aggregators) are going to push for controllability of those appliances because funding that is cheaper and faster than building new power plants. And when it happens it will be fairly transparent to people - they'll buy the $499 washing machine with Zigbee rather than the $459 machine without it because if they buy the Zigbee machine they get a $50 rebate from the utility. Again not because they want a modern communications standard to control their machines, but because it's cheaper.

It's happening here already. People are signing up for programs where the POCO comes and replaces your thermostats and then gives you a break on your bill. No extra work, no extra cost.

[SunEagle]

I am glad people are working with their POCO to find ways to reduce their consumption. I am also a little surprised considering the percentage of people who would do that considering the amount of animosity that is posted in this forum concerning the Bad POCO and their damn smart meters.

So while I have hope that more people embrace the need to upgrade appliances and find ways to reduce power consumption with smart thermostats, there seems to also be a large number of people that will do whatever they want and just about anything opposite of what their POCO wants or suggests.

[DanKegel]

while I have hope that more people embrace the need to upgrade appliances and find ways to reduce power consumption with smart thermostats, there seems to also be a large number of people that will do whatever they want and just about anything opposite of what their POCO wants or suggests.

You may have missed the point of our recent posts -- this stuff is already off the shelf, it'll be standard for all new equipment at some point, and eventually it'll just take over. So it doesn't matter what people do; things like OpenADR are coming, and they'll save people money without people knowing or caring.

[SunEagle]

You may have missed the point of our recent posts -- this stuff is already off the shelf, it'll be standard for all new equipment at some point, and eventually it'll just take over. So it doesn't matter what people do; things like OpenADR are coming, and they'll save people money without people knowing or caring.

And maybe you missed the point. People still purchase appliances from "scratch and dent" or second hand because they can't afford new ones.

There are also people that will do everything in their power to not cooperate with their POCO. So while some areas of this country will update and have more efficient appliances as well as smart thermostats a large portion will not.

Automation to help people to reduce their consumption is coming but with "free will" people will just do as they want or what they can afford.

Heck some of the forum members boast about using more power now that they have a pv system and plan on purchasing an EV because power is now cheap.

How the hell is that helping the plan to conserve and reduce. NOT ONE BIT.

[DanKegel]

What a curious discussion. We seem to be in violent agreement that automated load management will be built in to new appliances, and that most people will have these eventually.
Perhaps you're focusing on the short term (when low end and used appliances are largely inefficient and dumb), and I'm focusing on the long term (when low end and used appliances will largely be efficient and have built in automated load management)?

Now, about buying solar and then an EV (as I did), that can definitely be good for the climate, as even if power comes from natural gas fired grid powerplants, it's less co2 overall; see http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/..._emissions.php for data. And it's even better when you happen to recharge your EV from your own solar panels.

[Engineer]

Heck some of the forum members boast about using more power now that they have a pv system and plan on purchasing an EV because power is now cheap.

Count me in that camp!

How the hell is that helping the plan to conserve and reduce. NOT ONE BIT.

Whose plan is that? Not mine. The sun puts out thousands of time the energy we use. Society, progress and life itself is based on using that energy to greater purpose. I for one am all for that, the only reason for conservation is to save it for perhaps a better purpose, not to reduce our overall consumption IMO.

[DanKegel]

Whose plan is that? Not mine.

Indeed... we need to reduce co2 emissions (and other pollutants) so we don't ruin our environment, and we need to plan wisely so we don't run out of energy when we need it. If we need to be more efficient to meet those goals, as seems likely, fine. But reducing overall energy use for its own sake seems like a nongoal.

[Willaby]

Heck some of the forum members boast about using more power now that they have a pv system and plan on purchasing an EV because power is now cheap.

How the hell is that helping the plan to conserve and reduce. NOT ONE BIT.

Count me as one of the "boasters" too. But look where I'm coming from. In San Diego we are charged 46c/kw during the 12-6pm peak. So I planned in extra capacity for extra AC just to keep it in the high '70's during summer Maybe in FL with 12c/kw it's easy to point fingers.

[J.P.M.]

Count me as one of the "boasters" too. But look where I'm coming from. In San Diego we are charged 46c/kw during the 12-6pm peak. So I planned in extra capacity for extra AC just to keep it in the high '70's during summer Maybe in FL with 12c/kw it's easy to point fingers.

Count me in as a boaster as well, but maybe a different type. I live in 92026 - a fair bit warmer than closer to the coast. I use about ~ 6,600 kWh/yr. in a 3,300 ft.^2 house. Last yr. was a bit hotter than usual and I used 990 kWh for A/C for the year and didn't sweat much, and I don't live like a hermit. Conservation and common sense account for most of the lower use which has actually gone down a few % in the 9 yrs. I've lived in this house.

[Engineer]

I'd argue that the only way towards C02 reduction - the important goal, is to increase energy enjoyment. Make it hard and parsimonious and people won't do it. Make it cool and enjoyable and they will. Example, electric cars were little go-carts that only the die-hard early adopters wanted. Tesla came along and wrapped the battery in sexy, now everybody I talk to wants one.

[DanKegel]

Make it hard and parsimonious and people won't do it. Make it cool and enjoyable and they will.

Yeah, Tesla (for cars) and Nest (for demand response) did a great job playing pied piper and attracting lots of "early majority" users, at least from the top 10%. Those users probably weren't concerned with saving money.

Next step: "crossing the chasm", as the startups say. To get there, EVs and demand response thermostats have to be dead simple, perform better, and save people money (on a timescale that influences their purchase behavior).

[Engineer]

Yeah, Tesla (for cars) and Nest (for demand response) did a great job playing pied piper and attracting lots of "early majority" users, at least from the top 10%. Those users probably weren't concerned with saving money.

Next step: "crossing the chasm", as the startups say. To get there, EVs and demand response thermostats have to be dead simple, perform better, and save people money (on a timescale that influences their purchase behavior).

The Chevy Bolt might be a step in that direction for EV's. Coming out later this year, we'll be getting one, maybe it's the EV for the masses. The technology is great (200+ range), the problem is the Chevy reputation.