Tesla Wants to Build a Battery for Your House

[donald]

It seems to me that part of the announcement may be software. That they will offer a turnkey system that will automatically arbitrage when appropriate tier structures are available. As a straight backup battery sale, it's hard to see how it will make sense. Perhaps the user will be able to adjust the system between arbitrage and emergency backup modes. All done with a slick smart phone app, of course.

They are not fools. They aren't going to offer a product that doesn't have a competitive advantage, at least in some niche. They probably don't have the medium term capacity to build a large number of units anyways.

I don't see how there is a high demand short term product here. But I do see something that may be interesting and smart for the long term. I also like a product from a super high profile company that will get people thinking about how a grid that's 50% solar could possibly work. Personally I prefer a grid with some local storage, rather than a structure where large corporations control my dishwasher circuit.

[Sunking]

Assuming lithium is proven competitive in stationary storage.

You hit the bullseye. Right now using Chi-Com LFP is 2 times the long term cost of FLA. Tesla LiCo is 6 times higher that FLA or 60 times more expensive than buying power from the utility. How many decades will it take Tesla to close the competitive gap? As an investor I say never.

[donald]

I don't seem why they would spin off their battery division. It seems integral to their core business. In ten years storage will probably be more of a commodity business like panels today. Tesla's advantage is probably short term - Having the capability to provide safe, smaller systems at a lower price. The use of lithium in transportation may have a longer life than stationary. Assuming lithium is proven competitive in stationary storage.

[J.P.M.]

Actions count - Bloviating on youtube doesn't. When the systems are on the market place for one and all it will amount to something.

However, I expect that Musk is collecting money from the big boys as best he can manage.

If Musk were to spin off the battery business, I'd take a small risk on the IPO and bail on half of it after the enthusiasm wore out. Huge risk, small exposure, big potential gain for the remainder.

[russ]

Here's Tesla's Straubel "stirring the pot" last year at an energy storage conference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWSox7mLbyE

Actions count - Bloviating on youtube doesn't. When the systems are on the market place for one and all it will amount to something.

However, I expect that Musk is collecting money from the big boys as best he can manage.

[donald]

Here's Tesla's Straubel "stirring the pot" last year at an energy storage conference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWSox7mLbyE

[russ]

LOL......russ, I think you are stirring the pot.

It is more important to try to be accurate and correct than to be PC. 3600 RPM generators fall into the POS class.

Musk needs to stir the pot to keep the investors bucks rolling - that seems to be what he is doing at present. It is not all his money - he works with OPM to a great degree.

[Living Large]

I read about this in a Norwegian newspaper this morning.

Elon Musk said...
Combining solar panels with large, efficient batteries could allow some homeowners to avoid buying electricity from utilities. Morgan Stanley said last year that Tesla’s energy-storage product could be “disruptive” in the U.S. and in Europe as customers seek to avoid utility fees by going “off-grid.” Musk said the product unveiling would occur within the next month or two.
“We have the design done, and it should start going into production in about six months or so,” Musk said. “It’s really great.”

This sounds like mumbo jumbo to me, a mere Joe Consumer.

If by "some customers" avoiding "utility fees" Musk means people like me, who would need to pay $90,000 US to get a POCO connection, OK.

Otherwise, this sounds like something Jim Morrison saw in a drug-infused dream. I don't see "going off-grid" as a voluntary move to save money. I see the exact opposite, and my return is I get to live in a place most people would be satisfied visiting for a week year. I get to live in "paradise" for a cost. In truth, it's in a God-forsaken place where I get to haul my own trash to the dump, drive 20 miles to the nearest store, and pay high prices for everything including the groceries.

"Go off-grid - everyone's doing it and look at the savings!" Sorry, it just doesn't look viable anytime soon. Especially not "in about six months or so".

[DanS26]

Anyone buying a Generac is beyond hope - Chinese POS. 3600 RPM generators are generally useless.

Your rose colored glasses and cute - learn a bit more about batteries than what your stock broker is telling you.

LOL......russ, I think you are stirring the pot.

[russ]

I'm sure the home systems they have installed already don't have heating. They probably do have active cooling - a box fan. In a home system they can enforce minimum and maximum room temps. What the specs on the car? -30F to 120F? I do think that their turn key approach is the right way to sell safe residential lithium battery systems.
The early adapters will be buying this system instead of a Generac. But after that, there needs to be a decent ROI.
These huge battery investments were not justified on future lithium technology. They are based on economy of scale. These are not announcements of supposed lab breakthroughs in solar technology that everyone ignores.

Anyone buying a Generac is beyond hope - Chinese POS. 3600 RPM generators are generally useless.

Your rose colored glasses and cute - learn a bit more about batteries than what your stock broker is telling you.

[donald]

I'm sure the home systems they have installed already don't have heating. They probably do have active cooling - a box fan. In a home system they can enforce minimum and maximum room temps. What the specs on the car? -30F to 120F? I do think that their turn key approach is the right way to sell safe residential lithium battery systems.
The early adapters will be buying this system instead of a Generac. But after that, there needs to be a decent ROI.
These huge battery investments were not justified on future lithium technology. They are based on economy of scale. These are not announcements of supposed lab breakthroughs in solar technology that everyone ignores.

[Sunking]

Vaporware like the Tesla S and SpaceX, or the beta Tesla battery packets installed in residential homes in SoCal?

Energy density isn't important in this application. If thermal runaway risk is acceptably solved in transportation, it certainly has been resolved for stationary applications.

At great expense and complexity. Tesla has to use both liquid heating and cooling.

Try telling a homeowner he needs to spend 10 times more for a battery requiring a mechanical cooling system with pumps and fans to maintain that does not last as long a a lead acid battery and see how far you get with that argument. Bet that sales man gets Rover sicked on him and an attitude adjustment upside the head with a 2 x 4.

[russ]

Vaporware like the Tesla S and SpaceX, or the beta Tesla battery packets installed in residential homes in SoCal?

Yep - vaporware - as in Musk and his stock is in tough times - lots of chatter and stirring the pot but not much more as of yet.

If you buy his BS fine with me but I fail to see how anyone can.

[donald]

You can't find it because until something concrete comes out it is more vaporware from Musk who is one of the masters of vaporware.

Vaporware like the Tesla S and SpaceX, or the beta Tesla battery packets installed in residential homes in SoCal?

Energy density isn't important in this application. If thermal runaway risk is acceptably solved in transportation, it certainly has been resolved for stationary applications. People like Musk are betting literally billions of dollars that the lithium ion battery cost curve will be similar to what is happening with panel costs. If that's true, most people with solar will receive a positive return on an investment in local storage.

This potential development is relevant now. I wouldn't buy panels with micoinverters, which are currently the darlings of many system providers.

The more utilities fight against parity in net metering, the more storage makes sense.

[Johann]

True, but for that price you get the whole car, the non battery stuff probably do have some value?

If you search the Tesla forums you will see that price estimations for the 85kwh batteri of a Tesla goes from 45000$ all the way down to 12000$. This is replacement prices so not the same as buying a separate unit

From a Tesla forum:
"Nissan has just announced a $5500 replacement charge for the 24kWh battery so it's reasonable to expect to get a 85kWh battery for (way) under $20,000 in the future."

0.25$/wh should be interesting when knowing you could use all the watts.

Nisan's battery price includes a battery trait-in as a core.