Southern California 100 MW CSP vs. 100 MW PV Project Economics

[NFCR]

Hi All,

Great to see a popular solar forum on the web! I was hoping you folks might be able to help me with something. I'm currently writing a paper for one of my classes on making solar energy economical, and I'm doing a case study on implementing a 100 MW solar energy project in California. I am hoping to compare a PV farm grid system (unsure whether monocrystalline, polycrystalline, thin film, etc. is the most economic) to a dry-cooled parabolic trough system with thermal storage capacity. I was hoping to use CREST from NREL to perform the PV farm analysis (https://financere.nrel.gov/finance/content/CREST-model), but I'm stuck on current cost estimates, incentives, etc. for both PV and CSP technology. Does anyone have a good source I can use for cost estimates of these two projects for a 100 MW scale, specific to California?

In addition, I'm hoping to perform both a quick economic model (gross state output, earnings, employment, etc), and a high-level lifecycle analysis showing total lifetime GHG emissions, potential for recycling, water usage (dry cooled vs. wet cooled), etc. Most of the cost analyses I've been able to come by are dated circa 2009, and I feel that they may be outdated given the rapid reduction of PV costs. Even any current California 100 MW -scale project costs would be great.

Any help you can provide would be much appreciated. If you're a professional in the solar industry, please leave your name and title so I can cite you as a source in my paper.

Cheers,

NFCR

[Sunking]

Well the reduction in cost of PV panels is false. They are selling below manufacturing cost due to over saturated market.

[NFCR]

Well the reduction in cost of PV panels is false. They are selling below manufacturing cost due to over saturated market.

Thanks for the info, Sunking. Would you happen to know what the preferred PV cell is for stations of 100 MW or greater in size? According to NREL and some other research bodies, it appears that thin film technologies are being used for these projects at increasing rate. Why is this? Is it the reliability of the cell (20-30 year lifespan), current cost for thin films, etc.? The efficiencies appear to be lower for thin films when compared to crystalline and multi-junction cells, so I would imagine they're being used because of their reliability / cost but I'm not sure.

Cheers,

NFCR

[Sunking]

Thanks for the info, Sunking. Would you happen to know what the preferred PV cell is for stations of 100 MW or greater in size? According to NREL and some other research bodies, it appears that thin film technologies are being used for these projects at increasing rate. Why is this?

Because they are dirt cheap, and they want to make as much return as they can before selling it to someone else. The risk is Thin Film panels power deteriorates quite quickly and needs replaced about every 5 to 7 years. So the idea is build it as cheap as you can, collect revenues while you look for a buyer to dump it on.

[NFCR]

Because they are dirt cheap, and they want to make as much return as they can before selling it to someone else. The risk is Thin Film panels power deteriorates quite quickly and needs replaced about every 5 to 7 years. So the idea is build it as cheap as you can, collect revenues while you look for a buyer to dump it on.

Excellent, thanks for the information!