SRECS in New Jersey (Future of?)

[bonaire]

It was logical at the time.....goal for homeowners was 11% ROI. It was going to be under review anyway and we all know the cost was going to come down to reflect the reduced cost of installation so it is still worth it. Goal is still 11% ROI.

I said it before and I will say it again.....you will NOT get lower prices unless govts invest heavily in the technology and give the home owners something to get horny about. Are you telling me that you can build a big industry on $.30/kw FIT.....dream on.

Right - probably won't get a big industry on .30/kWh FIT - but should it be? It's a solution looking for a problem, then. Is Ontario starved for power? Not really unless some new industry sources are moving in and draining all the available hydro and other plants. It is nice to look for ways to grow renewables but think of it this way. The right way to do it is to address a very known problem and there isn't yet a known cliff of power generation where "we must do renewables or mankind will be doomed." It was and is a government jobs program which was mis-aligned and very few actually benefit from it. It's bad for the community to help only a few. A solar farmer installing a $10KW array for $100K (which happened in Ontario) then gets his .80/kWh and wins out. The installer makes tons of money on the install because he overcharged. The panel makers ride the FIT wave to profitability because they can charge above market rates for parts. This is not sustainable - in a sustainable energy world, that makes no sense.

A .30 FIT in the USA actually could draw some serious interest. I would LOVE a .30 FIT here. In the USA, we have a 30% federal tax credit (again, good for higher-income folks and businesses) but have very low FIT right now in the form of SRECs. When Solar was .30+ FIT (a $300 SREC) there was a lot of interest in building Solar PV systems - both for businesses wanting payback and fast depreciation and also homeowners. New Jersey has many homes who have PV arrays with bad shading, poor placement of panels, due to a fast run to install them when SRECs were "a gold mine". Today, they are well under 1/6 the value they used to be. My sister in law installed a 1.8KW system for $18K when they told her how much she'd make in SRECs. In a few short years, the market collapsed because the "incentive" was too high. Ontario is in the same position dealing with the FIT.

[MikeSolar]

Right - probably won't get a big industry on .30/kWh FIT - but should it be? It's a solution looking for a problem, then. Is Ontario starved for power? Not really unless some new industry sources are moving in and draining all the available hydro and other plants. It is nice to look for ways to grow renewables but think of it this way. The right way to do it is to address a very known problem and there isn't yet a known cliff of power generation where "we must do renewables or mankind will be doomed." It was and is a government jobs program which was mis-aligned and very few actually benefit from it. It's bad for the community to help only a few. A solar farmer installing a $10KW array for $100K (which happened in Ontario) then gets his .80/kWh and wins out. The installer makes tons of money on the install because he overcharged. The panel makers ride the FIT wave to profitability because they can charge above market rates for parts. This is not sustainable - in a sustainable energy world, that makes no sense.

A .30 FIT in the USA actually could draw some serious interest. I would LOVE a .30 FIT here. In the USA, we have a 30% federal tax credit (again, good for higher-income folks and businesses) but have very low FIT right now in the form of SRECs. When Solar was .30+ FIT (a $300 SREC) there was a lot of interest in building Solar PV systems - both for businesses wanting payback and fast depreciation and also homeowners. New Jersey has many homes who have PV arrays with bad shading, poor placement of panels, due to a fast run to install them when SRECs were "a gold mine". Today, they are well under 1/6 the value they used to be. My sister in law installed a 1.8KW system for $18K when they told her how much she'd make in SRECs. In a few short years, the market collapsed because the "incentive" was too high. Ontario is in the same position dealing with the FIT.

We can look at this from a perspective of "should govt be doing anything or should the market do everything", which is entirely a philosophical question. Like it or not, the free enterprise market system which is touted most loudly in the US, more than any other country in the world, doesn't work fo the community as a whole. It does work for some people and they can do very well, but no for the majority. The rest of the world seems to be Ok with some measure of govt regulation/stimulus and market involvement. It is always a work in progress.

When the FIT was introduced, there were two goals 1] phase out coal and 2] find industries to replace the auto industry.

If the market was the sole arbiter of power production, we would have only coal and maybe hydraulic power, because it is the cheapest. The private power producers would not care about diseases born by the population, and why should they. They are not in the health care business. it is govts role to make the health conditions tolerable, which is what they are doing.

for the foreseeable future, China will be the manufacturing centre of the world but they put in 1 new coal plant every week. We lose jobs to them and tax dollars and our quality of life goes down because we try to compete. You cannot compete with a state funded industry "China Inc" for too long.....not with 1.4Billion workers waiting for a job so we will become a 3 world country after 10-20 years and America will keep up SOME of it standard of living only by borrowing from the Chinese.

But I digress....way too much....

$100k for 10kw was the price before fit and just after it started. That price quickly came down to levels not too much different from in the US. I install systems at $4.50-$5/w if I can get it, sometimes a bit more...if I can get it.

The longest running working incentive scheme is in Germany and it works because they continually tweak it. It built an industry and is good for everyone. Eventually the grid parity will come and the FIT won't be necessary.

[bonaire]

China, when it does find it's top and does collapse, as it will do, will be quite spectacular. The one thing that differs there versus here is that the farmer children who moved to the city and now work in the industrial complex centers would then have to abandon that life back to the farm. If that happens within one generation, that's possibly manageable. If it happens over two generations, the children of the then out of work factory workers will have no real future. It'll look like North Korea at that point. China has a history of mass atrocities and I hope they wouldn't re-do that again.

My catch-phrase for this world economy is this. "A soceity that requires continual growth to survive will eventually do neither." It's like blowing up a balloon with a small pin-hole in it. You can keep it blown up by constant attention to pressure going in (pumping up the economy) but eventually it will fail and need to be reset. We used to do that via wartime. Now, it's economic war that seems to be afoot. My teenage kids have an interesting future ahead.

[Sunking]

China for the foreseeable future, China will be the manufacturing centre of the world

I am not so sure about that, and certainly no economist thinks they will be. China is playing Russian Roulette with their economic policy with their heavy subsidizing of industry. The only thing that keeps it from collapsing on itself is strong GDP growth and manipulating their currency value. If their growth slows, goes flat, or declines their whole system collapses and will wipe them out. What drives China economic machine is exports. Their internal economy cannot consume what they produce. Now that they have declining markets abroad, China cannot earn big profits from sales to foreign customers. Without the export cushion, the transition to a consumption-led economy in China will cause dislocations that are considered politically unacceptable.

[russ]

Comments within the text

But I digress....way too much.of Spreading a lot of bull is more like it.

$100k for 10kw was the price before fit and just after it started. That price quickly came down to levels not too much different from in the US. I install systems at $4.50-$5/w if I can get it, sometimes a bit more...if I can get it. No it was a lot less than 10$ unless the installers were holding people up? Of course there were the Canadian taxes which are sky high to contend with.

The longest running working incentive scheme is in Germany and it works because they continually tweak it. It built an industry and is good for everyone. Eventually the grid parity will come and the FIT won't be necessary.That will also be a cold day in hell - demanding the public refill your personal trough is a bit much

[MikeSolar]

Comments within the text

Sorry Russ, WRONG......

I don't see you come up with any working alternative to the FIT that will promote solar.

Total Canadian taxes are equal to or less than American taxes. Why is The republican VP contender making news saying the US should copy Canadian tax system? He is certainly no a high tax kind of guy.

[MikeSolar]

China, when it does find it's top and does collapse, as it will do, will be quite spectacular. The one thing that differs there versus here is that the farmer children who moved to the city and now work in the industrial complex centers would then have to abandon that life back to the farm. If that happens within one generation, that's possibly manageable. If it happens over two generations, the children of the then out of work factory workers will have no real future. It'll look like North Korea at that point. China has a history of mass atrocities and I hope they wouldn't re-do that again.

My catch-phrase for this world economy is this. "A soceity that requires continual growth to survive will eventually do neither." It's like blowing up a balloon with a small pin-hole in it. You can keep it blown up by constant attention to pressure going in (pumping up the economy) but eventually it will fail and need to be reset. We used to do that via wartime. Now, it's economic war that seems to be afoot. My teenage kids have an interesting future ahead.

I agree. It is just a question of when all this happens and more importantly will we humans recognise it or, as usual, complain after the fact that we didn't see it. We are not very good at preventative measures.

[MikeSolar]

I am not so sure about that, and certainly no economist thinks they will be. China is playing Russian Roulette with their economic policy with their heavy subsidizing of industry. The only thing that keeps it from collapsing on itself is strong GDP growth and manipulating their currency value. If their growth slows, goes flat, or declines their whole system collapses and will wipe them out. What drives China economic machine is exports. Their internal economy cannot consume what they produce. Now that they have declining markets abroad, China cannot earn big profits from sales to foreign customers. Without the export cushion, the transition to a consumption-led economy in China will cause dislocations that are considered politically unacceptable.

Google the number of mass demonstrations in China within the last 20 years. It has grown exponentially. They must keep growth high to keep the country together but it is the time frame that concerns me. The way things are going now, they will own the major portion of Americans, Britain, Canada, etc, etc, debt before it goes sour and we will go with it.

[russ]

Sorry Russ, WRONG......

I don't see you come up with any working alternative to the FIT that will promote solar.

Total Canadian taxes are equal to or less than American taxes. Why is The republican VP contender making news saying the US should copy Canadian tax system? He is certainly no a high tax kind of guy.

Then how come everyone from Canada complains about the cost of solar equipment being so much higher there.

I won't offer a FIT proposal because I consider them next to stealing.

[bonaire]

June 2010 - 10KW - total price $90,000 at 1:23 into video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUVVf8mu900

Another one - 10KW - total $73K

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjmu3e99k7Q&feature=related

You can tell from the 2nd video that these guys leaned toward investment with guaranteed FIT. This kind of thing started to happen in SREC-rich states like NJ when they were $600. Here, the SREC auctions are not guaranteed. If they were, we would have a 10x larger Solar industry in the USA.

[Sunking]

Why is The republican VP contender making news saying the US should copy Canadian tax system?

Prove it from a reputable source and link with full context. Neither the President or Vice President of the USA has the authority to make tax laws. That authority belongs to Congress. The POTUS can certainly offer a tax bill to Congress and they can accept it, makes changes, or chunk it in the garbage. The only authority the POTUS has is to either Sign or Veto the Tax bill put before him. He cannot change it or make it up.