Compare sales estimate of savings to after-install real life savings?

[J.P.M.]

Well. I screwed up and grabbed the estimates and actuals for our electrical usage not the solar generation. Whoops. The installer forecasted 6,080 kWh of yearly solar production. My system has averaged 7,700kWh of yearly solar production.

Sorry if I caused any confusion

Thank you for the orientation and clearing up the output.
No confusion. I was just wondering why the actual output /STC kW was so low.
I believe your actuals are about in line with others in N. County S.D.
Also, another example of vendor underestimation done for several reasons, few of which are to the customer's benefit.

[Cshama]

I agree with Mike 134. So Cshama please provide some details that will show you have a short 3.5 year payback. IMO just making the claim falls into the category of just blowing smoke.

Sure. No problem. Actually my real life payoff is really less then 2 years.

I have Coned who charge approximately 25 cents kWh depending on market prices. I produce 24mwh a year which corresponds to around $6k. The cost of my system after incentives which I definitely use is around $21k for an 18.34kw system using Hanwha panels and micros from a respected local installer. So around 3.5 years

But my actual payoff is shorter. I needed to replace my AC and my oil water heater. So I got heat pumps( very similar cost to standard units after very large NY rebates). I used to heat my house with oil now I use the heat pumps and solar electric. My total energy costs last year would have been 12k. So it’s not really fair to say a 2 year payoff because it involved $3k in insulation plus a couple of grand extra installing the heat pump water heater( which also had rebates)

Coned also roll my excess electricity production indefinitely which really is incredible . I’ve added a pool pump and I still probably will have 3mwh excess a year approximately which could take care of an EV or pool heater possibly.

So basically a 3.5 year payoff but a bit better in my system if you count actual savings. My house is completely independent of buying outside energy which is very cool to me.

[Cshama]

Btw everyone’s cynicism is warranted. It just so happens Coned is incredibly expensive. NY has very large rebates. Coned introduced rolling unlimited net metering for a couple of years that I took advantage of. I have a new very large unobstructed roof. I found a really good and cheap installer- $1.13/kw net

And even with all those advantages it’s still going to take 3.5 years. I don’t understand how it makes sense anywhere else frankly.

[Mike 134]

Btw everyone’s cynicism is warranted. It just so happens Coned is incredibly expensive. NY has very large rebates. Coned introduced rolling unlimited net metering for a couple of years that I took advantage of. I have a new very large unobstructed roof. I found a really good and cheap installer- $1.13/kw net

And even with all those advantages it’s still going to take 3.5 years. I don’t understand how it makes sense anywhere else frankly.

That is a very good price per watt for a contractor installed system. DIY my cost after the 26% federal credit was $0.98 for a 7.2 KW system. Remains to be seen what the final number is, waiting for a check from Illinois for the SRECs.

[SunEagle]

Btw everyone’s cynicism is warranted. It just so happens Coned is incredibly expensive. NY has very large rebates. Coned introduced rolling unlimited net metering for a couple of years that I took advantage of. I have a new very large unobstructed roof. I found a really good and cheap installer- $1.13/kw net

And even with all those advantages it’s still going to take 3.5 years. I don’t understand how it makes sense anywhere else frankly.

Places that have rates above yours (like CA and HI) can justify solar with a short payback. For me in Florida I get quotes way over $2/watt which sends my ROI out to more than 12 years (using $0.12/kWh )which is above my current costs.

[Cshama]

To me anything above 5 years is tough to justify. And I’m nervous about my payoff time as short as it is. I’m really not sure how long I’ll stay in my house and I have no faith it will help my house price if I sell.

Solar salesmen use the lower monthly cost to hook people in- but how many people stay in their house for 25 years more?

in my case I think it made sense and I’m enjoying it. But everything had to be perfect- state incentives, roof orientation and size and condition, cost of solar, cost of electricity, net metering, and on an on. Any deviation from those things would have killed it.

[SunEagle]

To me anything above 5 years is tough to justify. And I’m nervous about my payoff time as short as it is. I’m really not sure how long I’ll stay in my house and I have no faith it will help my house price if I sell.

Solar salesmen use the lower monthly cost to hook people in- but how many people stay in their house for 25 years more?

in my case I think it made sense and I’m enjoying it. But everything had to be perfect- state incentives, roof orientation and size and condition, cost of solar, cost of electricity, net metering, and on an on. Any deviation from those things would have killed it.

It makes me sick to watch advertisements and the news showing people as old as I am (69) living in Florida saying that their new solar systems will payback all of their investment while they are still alive. IMO it is pure BS. I just wish the price would be lower so I can make the install but for now unless it gets below $2/watt there is no incentive to make the plunge.

[silversaver]

Depends on utilities company and purchase price, it is hard to see a short ROI. For example SEC, the new TOU plans I don't see how a short term can be reach in CA.

I did end up with about 4 years on my solar. It is worth every penny.

[J.P.M.]

Depends on utilities company and purchase price, it is hard to see a short ROI. For example SEC, the new TOU plans I don't see how a short term can be reach in CA.

I did end up with about 4 years on my solar. It is worth every penny.

Yea, but you had a horseshoe in your butt the day you signed that contract. Something like $2.40 or so per STC W while other good stuff was going for ~ $3.50 - $375/STC W at that time as I seem to remember.

I asked you to buy me a lottery ticket.

[q2bruiser]

Has anyone compared the solar salesperson's estimate of savings or payback years, to the actual real life savings or payback after the install of a grid tie no battery solar system?

(And yes, I have read The Book and done google searches.)

In my case, the estimates provided by the company have been within 3-4%. I will take it.

[CharlieEscCA]

Depends on utilities company and purchase price, it is hard to see a short ROI. For example SEC, the new TOU plans I don't see how a short term can be reach in CA.

I did end up with about 4 years on my solar. It is worth every penny.

Yep. But with SDGE, short ROI is is pretty common. I'm hitting my break even by the end of this year, which will be three years. This is based by getting my exact TOD usage and SDGE tariffs for Summer / Winter and TOD and calculating what my bill would be without solar. But, it's the SDGE rates that create the payoff timeframe.

This is this year thus far:

SDGE True Up Running Data.png

[AmitBajpayee]

Compare sales estimate of savings to after-install real-life savings?

Studies have found that, on average, the actual savings is approximately 20% higher than the estimated savings. However, the actual savings are relatively more diverge than the estimated savings.
This distinction concerning the lower estimated savings can mainly be attributed to models' inability to fully capture the changes in household habits, the electric rate structure, and the weather responsible for the data fluctuations.
You should also understand that the higher initial power bills correspond to the higher actual savings and not with the estimated savings.
Making solar estimate models more customizable can be one of the solutions.

[silversaver]

Yep. But with SDGE, short ROI is is pretty common. I'm hitting my break even by the end of this year, which will be three years. This is based by getting my exact TOD usage and SDGE tariffs for Summer / Winter and TOD and calculating what my bill would be without solar. But, it's the SDGE rates that create the payoff timeframe.

This is this year thus far:

SDGE True Up Running Data.png

Everyone is different depends on usage and cost. I just take a look of SDGE TOU-DR1 plan which it offer you pretty close cost between super off peak, off peak and on peak. The DR2 is more like what SCE offer for its TOU plans. The difference is SCE has bigger gap between peak and off peak as 34 cents and 54 cents vs 37 cents and 44 cents. Of course when kWh price increase, it makes solar worth with better ROI. You will need a larger solar system at maybe 140% to cover your actual 100% usage in SCE base on the TOU plan. Does EV saving you money? this type of question haha. Everyone has different answer.

[Will792]

Btw everyone’s cynicism is warranted. It just so happens Coned is incredibly expensive. NY has very large rebates. Coned introduced rolling unlimited net metering for a couple of years that I took advantage of. I have a new very large unobstructed roof. I found a really good and cheap installer- $1.13/kw net

And even with all those advantages it’s still going to take 3.5 years. I don’t understand how it makes sense anywhere else frankly.

I installed my system myself and paid for panels and microinverters wholesale prices with system cost roughly the same, $1.10 per W (before federal tax credit). CT is talking (not approved yet) about increasing electric rates to around $0.36 per KWh next year, which will shorten breakeven time to about 3 years.

Most salespeople projections use fixed increase in electricity price. As we now know it is not that simple.

[Cshama]

Tesla at one point was doing $1/kw net in New York. Now they’ve stopped. I wanted to use a local installer. My timing was good because Coned for a year had a program with unlimited rolling net metering. Meaning they stored your electric production until you used it without an annual reset.