produce more than consumption, question about SoCal SCE NEM 2.0 rates

[fanskyer]

Was about to sign the solar contract with Tesla for that 4.08kw system, read a bunch of docs, it seems there will be a 10$ fixed cost for each month, and more importantly, my current monthly bill is around 60-70, use 300-350 kwh, 0,21 per kwh. from the formula this 4.08kw system will produce 500-600 kwh per month so it is over sized. and 4.08 is the smallest size that the vendor provided.
I may use more power later but it is not yet decided.
my question is, is my below understanding correct?
"for the NEM 2.0, it seems I will be forced into TOU plan where the produce will normally in higher bucket $ value and the major consumption at night will be in lower $ value, so may be it is even more negative? but that negative is not paid out in $ value, instead, it will be adjust with the rate that 2-3 cents [ which I feel super unfair as right now it is 20-30 cents ] make it less financially make sense?"
Also it seems you do not need to cash out the credit but just store the credit there and use later [ if in the future we purchase EV ], but the SCE do not give any examples on how this work and I coudn't find useful info regarding this.

Please help me understand how the NEM 2.0 works and give me advice on should i stick with the solar plan or just move on [ i perhaps lost 100$ initial fees ]. Thanks

[J.P.M.]

First off, I wouldn't let anyone from Tesla on my property, much less do business with them.
Are they proposing to sell you a system, or lease it ?
I've pretty much stopped talking about system oversizing and why it's not a good idea, but it's a free country.
New NEM users are all on T.O.U. Their grid, their rules.
T.O.U. was a much better deal for PV users before the T.O.U rates and particularly the T.O.U. times were realigned. With the new times, what your system will generate has an average retail value (to offset a bill, not the excess generation rate, and NOT what your average cost/kWh from SCE will be) that's ~ 20 % or so less than it would have been if the old times of use were still in effect.
Depending on system orientation, any system you get will most likely have peak production times that are somewhat symmetric about solar noon, maybe shifted an hr. or so later if more (but not entirely) west aligned by 20 - 40 degrees azimuth or so.
New rates pretty much assure you will not be producing as much electricity at peak pricing times as you might think or like.
Any excess production after 12 months can usually be carried forward or you'll be paid the excess generation rate which is very small compared to what you're charged for the power.
Their grid- their rules. Besides, who said anything about fair ? Don't like the rules - don't get PV.

I'd respectfully suggest that before you get any PV, you first help yourself with some self education to what you're getting into. This PV business isn't complicated but it's more involved than buying a toaster.
Get and read a copy of "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies". A free online PDF for a dated but still useful version or ~ $25 or so at bookstores/Amazon for a newer version.
After the book, I'd get more quotes. IMO only, you can do a lot better than Tesla in terms of a quality vendor who will do quality work.
Then, spend some time with the SCE website and learn how their billing and rate structures, rules and policies work. It's a PITA, but if you want to make the best decision(s), it's a necessary step. Unfortunately for you, it's not easy or maybe even not possible to spoon feed what you seem to need in the way of information.

As for advice about yea/nay on PV, At $700-800/yr. for an electric bill, I'd pass for now. Your usage and bills aren't that high. Also, and this is not cast in stone, but my SWAG is that for most users, tiered rates are easier to deal with, understand plan for and pay bills under than T.O.U. I'd sit on the sidelines for now, use the time to get educated about your possible choices, learn about PV, and POCO rate structures, get more quotes on PV systems and find a good vendor. I doubt the cost of PV will be going up a lot in the near/intermediate future. Call any bills that are larger because you waited to get PV as tuition for a self education that'll be better than a lot of spoon feeding that at your present level, you won't understand anyway.

Welcome to the neighborhood.

[Mike90250]

On a side note, regarding Tesla Power walls. I heard they were knocked off-line by the global Tesla outage on the 23rd. Anyone had issues, or know more about it ?

[fanskyer]

First off, I wouldn't let anyone from Tesla on my property, much less do business with them.
Are they proposing to sell you a system, or lease it ?
I've pretty much stopped talking about system oversizing and why it's not a good idea, but it's a free country.
New NEM users are all on T.O.U. Their grid, their rules.
T.O.U. was a much better deal for PV users before the T.O.U rates and particularly the T.O.U. times were realigned. With the new times, what your system will generate has an average retail value (to offset a bill, not the excess generation rate, and NOT what your average cost/kWh from SCE will be) that's ~ 20 % or so less than it would have been if the old times of use were still in effect.
Depending on system orientation, any system you get will most likely have peak production times that are somewhat symmetric about solar noon, maybe shifted an hr. or so later if more (but not entirely) west aligned by 20 - 40 degrees azimuth or so.
New rates pretty much assure you will not be producing as much electricity at peak pricing times as you might think or like.
Any excess production after 12 months can usually be carried forward or you'll be paid the excess generation rate which is very small compared to what you're charged for the power.
Their grid- their rules. Besides, who said anything about fair ? Don't like the rules - don't get PV.

I'd respectfully suggest that before you get any PV, you first help yourself with some self education to what you're getting into. This PV business isn't complicated but it's more involved than buying a toaster.
Get and read a copy of "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies". A free online PDF for a dated but still useful version or ~ $25 or so at bookstores/Amazon for a newer version.
After the book, I'd get more quotes. IMO only, you can do a lot better than Tesla in terms of a quality vendor who will do quality work.
Then, spend some time with the SCE website and learn how their billing and rate structures, rules and policies work. It's a PITA, but if you want to make the best decision(s), it's a necessary step. Unfortunately for you, it's not easy or maybe even not possible to spoon feed what you seem to need in the way of information.

As for advice about yea/nay on PV, At $700-800/yr. for an electric bill, I'd pass for now. Your usage and bills aren't that high. Also, and this is not cast in stone, but my SWAG is that for most users, tiered rates are easier to deal with, understand plan for and pay bills under than T.O.U. I'd sit on the sidelines for now, use the time to get educated about your possible choices, learn about PV, and POCO rate structures, get more quotes on PV systems and find a good vendor. I doubt the cost of PV will be going up a lot in the near/intermediate future. Call any bills that are larger because you waited to get PV as tuition for a self education that'll be better than a lot of spoon feeding that at your present level, you won't understand anyway.

Welcome to the neighborhood.

thanks! really appreciate your response.
the quote i get from T is better than my other quotes, it is 8.2k for 4.08kw system, around 6k after tax benefits. I heard from the forum that the quality is not good, but giving they provide long enough warranty, i guess it is still acceptable? one thing i dislike is they seems not using the micro inverter, but it seems tech advanced, and this "Single Phase Inverter with HD-Wave Technology" seems now acceptable?

the concern for me is my current usage is not enough and over produce energy, but i currently own a PHEV and really like it. If I get a EV in the future then this will solve the over produce issue. I want to know how the credit carry over work but from SCE website there is not much information nor concrete examples.

[RichardCullip]

..... I want to know how the credit carry over work but from SCE website there is not much information nor concrete examples.

In short, under NEM2, each month you over generate you create a credit in dollars based on the TOU periods you over generate. This dollar credit can be used in later months to cover any shortage you might have due to under generating on a given month. Unused dollar credits roll over to the next month, If you are a serious over generator this can build up to a tidy looking sum after 12 months Unfortunately after 12 months, at your yearly True-up date, you do not get any of the dollar credit you might have left over. Instead you will get a small amount, most likely btwn 2-3 cents for each kWh hour of over generation for the 12 month period.

That's how it works in SDG&E territory and it is my understands that it works the same way in the other major POCOs in California. Of course there may ne some minor differences with SCE that I don't know about.

[J.P.M.]

thanks! really appreciate your response.
the quote i get from T is better than my other quotes, it is 8.2k for 4.08kw system, around 6k after tax benefits. I heard from the forum that the quality is not good, but giving they provide long enough warranty, i guess it is still acceptable? one thing i dislike is they seems not using the micro inverter, but it seems tech advanced, and this "Single Phase Inverter with HD-Wave Technology" seems now acceptable?

the concern for me is my current usage is not enough and over produce energy, but i currently own a PHEV and really like it. If I get a EV in the future then this will solve the over produce issue. I want to know how the credit carry over work but from SCE website there is not much information nor concrete examples.

One Peril of the first cost syndrome: If buy "better than my other quotes" you mean lowest buck, suit yourself. Buy cheap. Buy twice.

Read what you wrote: Poor quality but that'll be OK because they'll fix it for a long time. Oookkkaaayyy !?!?

I'm one of alternate energy's biggest fans and have been so for 40+ years. I want it to work and thrive. I'm also the guy who reviews, recommends and monitors all the PV installs to my HOA as a part of the Arch. Rev. Comm. since 2008.

SolarCity has ~ 20+ jobs up here or ~ 15 % of all the installs. Their offspring, Tesla, not having had a long to practice their line has about 5 or so. They are about the least professional solar outfit I've dealt with.

Dealing with both, they seem the same, and doing so is the reason I wouldn't let them on my property.

Not my home, money, life, but IMO only, you'd be way further ahead reading the dummies book, learning about the stuff I suggested in a prior post, and after that getting more quotes from real (and probably local) vendors with some integrity and knowledge of what they're doing. Your solar ignorance is the lifeblood that outfits like Tesla and other survive on.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[fanskyer]

thanks! really appreciate your response.
the quote i get from T is better than my other quotes, it is 8.2k for 4.08kw system, around 6k after tax benefits. I heard from the forum that the quality is not good, but giving they provide long enough warranty, i guess it is still acceptable? one thing i dislike is they seems not using the micro inverter, but it seems tech advanced, and this "Single Phase Inverter with HD-Wave Technology" seems now acceptable?

the concern for me is my current usage is not enough and over produce energy, but i currently own a PHEV and really like it. If I get a EV in the future then this will solve the over produce issue. I want to know how the credit carry over work but from SCE website there is not much information nor concrete examples.

Thanks! really appreciate your inputs, so the credit not able to carry over to next year is really unfriendly to have an over-sized system

[fanskyer]

One Peril of the first cost syndrome: If buy "better than my other quotes" you mean lowest buck, suit yourself. Buy cheap. Buy twice.

Read what you wrote: Poor quality but that'll be OK because they'll fix it for a long time. Oookkkaaayyy !?!?

I'm one of alternate energy's biggest fans and have been so for 40+ years. I want it to work and thrive. I'm also the guy who reviews, recommends and monitors all the PV installs to my HOA as a part of the Arch. Rev. Comm. since 2008.

SolarCity has ~ 20+ jobs up here or ~ 15 % of all the installs. Their offspring, Tesla, not having had a long to practice their line has about 5 or so. They are about the least professional solar outfit I've dealt with.

Dealing with both, they seem the same, and doing so is the reason I wouldn't let them on my property.

Not my home, money, life, but IMO only, you'd be way further ahead reading the dummies book, learning about the stuff I suggested in a prior post, and after that getting more quotes from real (and probably local) vendors with some integrity and knowledge of what they're doing. Your solar ignorance is the lifeblood that outfits like Tesla and other survive on.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

thanks for the inputs, appreciate it!

[J.P.M.]

thanks for the inputs, appreciate it!

You're welcome.