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  • #61
    Originally posted by Ampster View Post

    I am no sure I can post a link but it is called the tesla motors forum. The specific sub forums that I spend my time on are Tesla Energy and the regional California Forum. I have been a member there since 2012 when I bought a Toyota RAV 4 EV which had a Tesla drivetrain. I was active in a RAV 4 forum and some of the posters there, also referred to the broader discussions on the Tesla forum.
    Thanks.

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    • #62
      I updated the complete name of the forum.
      www.teslamotorsclub.com
      Last edited by Ampster; 01-18-2020, 11:35 PM.
      9 kW solar. Driving EVs since 2012

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      • #63
        Posting a link as a reply to a direct question is OK, unless it's a fraudulent link, like " I need to get a diploma fast"
        Powerfab top of pole PV mount (2) | Listeroid 6/1 w/st5 gen head | XW6048 inverter/chgr | Iota 48V/15A charger | Morningstar 60A MPPT | 48V, 800A NiFe Battery (in series)| 15, Evergreen 205w "12V" PV array on pole | Midnight ePanel | Grundfos 10 SO5-9 with 3 wire Franklin Electric motor (1/2hp 240V 1ph ) on a timer for 3 hr noontime run - Runs off PV ||
        || Midnight Classic 200 | 10, Evergreen 200w in a 160VOC array ||
        || VEC1093 12V Charger | Maha C401 aa/aaa Charger | SureSine | Sunsaver MPPT 15A

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        • #64
          Originally posted by J.P.M. View Post


          It may also be worth considering, maybe in another thread, what would/may/possibly happen with respect to POCO TOU rates, tariffs and policies if use at what are now super off peak times really rises for whatever reason - lots of EVs/charging, distributed residential energy storage is suddenly seen as an advantage to the bottom line of utilities and super off peak charging becomes common or encouraged by the POCOs, whatever. If Super off peak use rises enough will super off peak rates then rise ? Will TOU rates equalize to the point that TOU becomes an anachronism ? What effect would all that have on the grid's capacities ?
          They will change their super-off-peak hours to whatever is actually super off peak.

          I have the feeling that the extra utility revenue from a large scale petroleum to EV conversion will easily pay for any necessary distribution upgrades, and probably ahead of the need. Already at the moment, the studies show that EV use lowers rates overall (even for non EV owners) as the quasi-fixed costs like labor and maintenance is spread over a larger revenue pool. At some point increased infrastructure will be needed but that's a while off.

          I think that still summer peak A/C use on commercial weekdays will exceed EV night demand. Distribution transformers, the key bottleneck, are limited by heat. Too much temp over time results in much faster degradation and possibility of failure grows strongly. EV's charging at night when it's cooler don't stress as much as afternoon air conditioning in heat waves when the transformers are already baking in the sun. (BTW home solar generation destresses some grid to residential transformers in these conditions and lowers utility capex needs, but commercial utilities don't really like it anyway as they'd much rather have the money of a no-solar ratepayer. )

          Likely the TOU will change to be more dynamic and responsive to actual daily to instantaneous grid conditions, like it is for big commercial users now. By then (20-30 years?), cars will mostly be able to communicate with utilities and with bidirectional charging & storage, know how to charge on low demand periods or even be able to supply the grid during peaks and be so compensated. If you let your utility tell you car when to charge you could get a reduced rate. Batteries are already big enough in some EVs that multiple days of average commuting can be charged in an evening's super-off-peak rate.

          Increased utility risks and costs will likely come less from EV's (predictable and controllable) than from global warming (persistent heat waves) and violent climate events, storms or heat-exacerbated fires, which we've already seen.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by DrChaos View Post

            They will change their super-off-peak hours to whatever is actually super off peak.
            I have seen some of that in some small commercial rate plans with SCE where the super off peak goes from 8AM until 4PM. The peak is still 4-9PM.
            I have the feeling that the extra utility revenue from a large scale petroleum to EV conversion will easily pay for any necessary distribution upgrades, and probably ahead of the need. Already at the moment, the studies show that EV use lowers rates overall (even for non EV owners) as the quasi-fixed costs like labor and maintenance is spread over a larger revenue pool. At some point increased infrastructure will be needed but that's a while off.
            At least in California with deregulation and the proliferation of CCAs (Community Choice Aggregation) The IOUs segment of the market is becoming less from generation revenue and more from distribution and transmission. For the most part the IOUs no longer own the generating assets so they are buying in the marketplace.
            I think that still summer peak A/C use on commercial weekdays will exceed EV night demand. Distribution transformers, the key bottleneck, are limited by heat. Too much temp over time results in much faster degradation and possibility of failure grows strongly. EV's charging at night when it's cooler don't stress as much as afternoon air conditioning in heat waves when the transformers are already baking in the sun. (BTW home solar generation destresses some grid to residential transformers in these conditions and lowers utility capex needs, but commercial utilities don't really like it anyway as they'd much rather have the money of a no-solar ratepayer. )
            I had never thought about the faster degradation of transformers because of heat. The effect of rooftop solar destressing them is important. Even though the transformers are bidirectional the measurement and control equipment at substations is not bidirectional and as rooftop and other distributed forms of generation proliferate there is a future investment required to allow the grid to adapt to this phenomena.
            Likely the TOU will change to be more dynamic and responsive to actual daily to instantaneous grid conditions, like it is for big commercial users now. By then (20-30 years?), cars will mostly be able to communicate with utilities and with bidirectional charging & storage, know how to charge on low demand periods or even be able to supply the grid during peaks and be so compensated. If you let your utility tell you car when to charge you could get a reduced rate. Batteries are already big enough in some EVs that multiple days of average commuting can be charged in an evening's super-off-peak rate.
            Increased utility risks and costs will likely come less from EV's (predictable and controllable) than from global warming (persistent heat waves) and violent climate events, storms or heat-exacerbated fires, which we've already seen.
            It is going to be a decade of disruption.

            9 kW solar. Driving EVs since 2012

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Ampster View Post
              I have seen some of that in some small commercial rate plans with SCE where the super off peak goes from 8AM until 4PM. The peak is still 4-9PM.

              At least in California with deregulation and the proliferation of CCAs (Community Choice Aggregation) The IOUs segment of the market is becoming less from generation revenue and more from distribution and transmission. For the most part the IOUs no longer own the generating assets so they are buying in the marketplace.

              I had never thought about the faster degradation of transformers because of heat. The effect of rooftop solar destressing them is important. Even though the transformers are bidirectional the measurement and control equipment at substations is not bidirectional and as rooftop and other distributed forms of generation proliferate there is a future investment required to allow the grid to adapt to this phenomena.

              It is going to be a decade of disruption.
              All of the above certainly makes long-range forecasting quite a challenge. Too much uncertainty about where TOU rates are headed in Calif and elsewhere. It's hard enough to do just a forecast for the next 12 months.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by RichardCullip View Post

                All of the above certainly makes long-range forecasting quite a challenge. Too much uncertainty about where TOU rates are headed in Calif and elsewhere. It's hard enough to do just a forecast for the next 12 months.
                Yes, I think flexibility will be important. As I contemplate using my hybrid inverter more to self consume some of my solar, I may have to upgrade my battery pack.
                9 kW solar. Driving EVs since 2012

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                • #68
                  I now have nearly 10 months of actual performance from my 4kW solar and am fairly confident about which rate I should be on. At this point in time, I'm running a surplus of ~240kWh per month which gives me some flexibility in adding a EV or PHEV to our household electrical demand. In looking at the near future, TOU-DR is still a good rate for me as I can add up to 250kWh of super-off peak demand and still be at or very near to the minimum charge. I need to add at least 250kWh per month of super-off peak demand before TOU-EV-2 starts saving me money over the TOU-DR rate I'm currently on. I would need to add at least 440kWh per month of super-off peak demand before TOU-EV-5 starts saving me money.

                  Of course, all bets are off if SDG&E gets significant changes in their rate schedules approved by the CPUC. I suspect that I will be analyzing rate schedules and my household demand each year at True-up time as I'm locked to my current rate schedule until then.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Ampster View Post
                    It is going to be a decade of disruption.
                    Related to that I just saw this video of Tony Seba's keynote at at a North Carolina Transportation summit. Starting out he shows a picture of a 1900 Easter parade in NYC where there are hundreds of horse draw carriages and one car. He then shows a 1913 picture where there is one horse drawn carriage and hundreds of cars.
                    The disruption he talks about is bigger than just EVs, it includes autonomous driving and the use, generation and storage of energy. I would have started a new thread but I thought this would be a good footnote to where this discussion was headed.

                    https://youtu.be/2dR5EwjJits


                    9 kW solar. Driving EVs since 2012

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