Yes, the only thing I would add is that NEM 2 also includes Non Bypassable charges. That tips the scales a little more in favor of a Powerwall because you can save on those by not using grid power as much. The NBCs only amount to $0.03 per kWhr but depending on your timing of consumption it could shorten the payback slightly.
also from reading around it sounds like installing powerwalls would let them force me onto NEM-2.
my idea was actually more radical than just the peak/partial-peak load shifting. because i didn't do enough reading at the tesla forum, i thought that i would be able to do off-peak to peak load shifting with the powerwall, at least for this last year while there's a 30 cent spread between the two on EV-A. however, 1) PGE explicitly forbids this and only lets you export as much energy as your solar plant would make, 2) tesla won't let you charge the PW2 from the grid, and 3) you can't claim the federal ITC (and certainly not the SGIP rebate) if you are charging from the grid. with some creative accounting i thought maybe i could claim the 26% ITC in 2020 but that might have been a stretch.
but it turns out what you describe here is the only option - to load shift between peak and partial peak. i guess i'd have to model how this would really work money-wise. i suppose as long as the powerwall lets you keep exporting energy at peak it could still pay off (especially if you are running your house from the partial-peak power stored in the battery and exporting all the solar during peak) but the deltas would seem to be pretty incremental. even if the PW2 cost is reduced by the state and federal incentives it will still take a very long time to pay for itself thru load-shifting.
but it turns out what you describe here is the only option - to load shift between peak and partial peak. i guess i'd have to model how this would really work money-wise. i suppose as long as the powerwall lets you keep exporting energy at peak it could still pay off (especially if you are running your house from the partial-peak power stored in the battery and exporting all the solar during peak) but the deltas would seem to be pretty incremental. even if the PW2 cost is reduced by the state and federal incentives it will still take a very long time to pay for itself thru load-shifting.
since i'm interested in the PW2 primarily for backup power, and the incentives are targeted at self-generation and grid supplanting, my goals and the state's are kind of at odds. but it doesn't matter since tesla essentially forces you to operate the powerwalls in a mode that's aligned with what the state wants. so i might as well try to get the credits, although it does seem like the SGIP is getting harder and harder to claim. based on the SGIP spreadsheets it seems like the installers in my area might already be on step 3
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