Opinion on proposal?

[shroh]

Hi all,

I'd appreciate your expert thoughts on the proposal we are considering. First, a little background.

We live in San Jose, CA. PG&E is our electric utility. Most of the usable roof faces southeast. We will be able to fit a few panels facing southwest, where the output will be marginally higher. There are some sparse trees that will slightly impact production in the winter months. We've read the Solar for Dummies book, have run numbers on both PG&E and PVWatt sites. We've received multiple bids and this is the best.

Panels: 32 LG335NIC-A5
Inverters: 32 Enphase IQ6+
Size: 10.72 kW
Cost before tax credit: $30,700
Cost per watt: $2.86

I know this is a pretty large system for residential. But we have analyzed our usage and think we have a good grasp on our needs. We're on the reservation list for two Tesla Model 3s, one to be delivered hopefully by the end of the year, and the second in mid-2018. We expect to over-produce until our second EV. Even with the overproduction for the first year, our expected payback after the tax credit is less than 6 years.

The installer is a small, local shop and gets rave reviews on yelp, Nextdoor. We're close to signing, but wanted to check in with the helpful experts on this site.

TIA!

[J.P.M.]

Hi all,

I'd appreciate your expert thoughts on the proposal we are considering. First, a little background.

We live in San Jose, CA. PG&E is our electric utility. Most of the usable roof faces southeast. We will be able to fit a few panels facing southwest, where the output will be marginally higher. There are some sparse trees that will slightly impact production in the winter months. We've read the Solar for Dummies book, have run numbers on both PG&E and PVWatt sites. We've received multiple bids and this is the best.

Panels: 32 LG335NIC-A5
Inverters: 32 Enphase IQ6+
Size: 10.72 kW
Cost before tax credit: $30,700
Cost per watt: $2.86

I know this is a pretty large system for residential. But we have analyzed our usage and think we have a good grasp on our needs. We're on the reservation list for two Tesla Model 3s, one to be delivered hopefully by the end of the year, and the second in mid-2018. We expect to over-produce until our second EV. Even with the overproduction for the first year, our expected payback after the tax credit is less than 6 years.

The installer is a small, local shop and gets rave reviews on yelp, Nextdoor. We're close to signing, but wanted to check in with the helpful experts on this site.

TIA!

Have you estimated the possible impact of rate reform will have on both your future bills and modeled system revenue ?

It's interesting to see how the rate of price decreases seem to be increasing, possibly as the effects of rate reform become more apparent.

[shroh]

No, that is the one thing we did not do. I don't know what the impact of that will be. I only know prices continue to increase and rate plans seem to be working against consumers.

Our goal is to put in a big enough solar system to hopefully cover our needs, both today and in the future, and then potentially add batteries a year or two down the line.

[ButchDeal]

Our goal is to put in a big enough solar system to hopefully cover our needs, both today and in the future, and then potentially add batteries a year or two down the line.

What is the point of the batteries?

Currently there is an incentive for batteries in CA.
IF your goal is for backup, then enphase is the wrong solution for you.

[J.P.M.]

No, that is the one thing we did not do. I don't know what the impact of that will be. I only know prices continue to increase and rate plans seem to be working against consumers.

Our goal is to put in a big enough solar system to hopefully cover our needs, both today and in the future, and then potentially add batteries a year or two down the line.

Payback, whatever that means and however you evaluated it will probably be going out, that is longer than it would have been without rate reform.

When you say best of the multiple bids, what criteria did you use in the bid evaluation ?

[dailo]

Do you mind sharing what installer you got this quote for? I'm looking for a similar system in San Jose.

[shroh]

Thanks guys for the replies.

Butch, agreed, we are not planning on batteries in the immediate future. But at some point, battery costs may come down to where it may make sense (more for energy shifting rather than backup)? I know Enphase has batteries, and Tesla Powerwall2 are now compatible with Enphase inverters.

@JPM, ah right. I have many years of experience with PG&E. They have consistently raised rates and changed rate plans to the detriment of consumers. I have little doubt this will continue. So I'd like to put myself in a position where their actions will have as little of an impact on us as possible. Whether the payback period is 5, 6 or 7 years, I feel confident for several reasons, including financial, we are making the right decision to go solar, particularly with EVs in our immediate future.

We received bids from 4 companies:
Solar City was not competitive (and of course the bad experiences people here have had)
SunRun (through Costco): was our first bid. That was almost a year ago, so maybe they deserve another shot, but their quote was pretty expensive for Chinese panels (I forget the make)
2 local companies with good reviews on Yelp and Nextdoor. Both quoted LG panels with Enphase inverters. Both suggested microinverters due to slight shading issues with trees. The one I chose was cheaper ($2.86 vs $3.20 per watt).

Criteria were: cost, components used, thoroughness of the sales/bid process, reviews, gut feel. One nice thing is the installer we are considering is local (lives in the neighborhood), and has installed several systems in the neighborhood. I got very good vibes that he is going to do a good job and be there for me if we run into any issues.

[shroh]

dailo, I'm happy to share. As a newbie on this site, I don't know if there are any issues with posting company names? I'll try to send you a pm.

[dailo]

shroh I enabled private messaging on my account, so you should be able to send me a PM. Looking at a similar setup to yours and would love any insight to how you decided on the panels / inverter.

[noxiouscloud]

shroh. I'd be interested in the two local installers you had considered as well. Thanks in advance!

[cebury]

There are no PMs. If the vendor exists in the SolarReviews.com, put a link to them there. It helps out the owners of this web forum. Otherwise, just put their name.

[max2k]

shroh. I'd be interested in the two local installers you had considered as well. Thanks in advance!

PM was disabled on this site a while ago- just to spare you the effort of trying to make it work.

[cebury]

There is quite a bit of guidance against using microinverters on roof mounted installs in hot environments. San Jose isnt the desert, but it is still in direct heat of the sun during summer. Just an fyi...

[dailo]

There is quite a bit of guidance against using microinverters on roof mounted installs in hot environments. San Jose isnt the desert, but it is still in direct heat of the sun during summer. Just an fyi...

Is there a wiki or something I can read up more information about this?

[J.P.M.]

Thanks guys for the replies.

Butch,

@JPM, ah right. I have many years of experience with PG&E. They have consistently raised rates and changed rate plans to the detriment of consumers. I have little doubt this will continue. So I'd like to put myself in a position where their actions will have as little of an impact on us as possible. Whether the payback period is 5, 6 or 7 years, I feel confident for several reasons, including financial, we are making the right decision to go solar, particularly with EVs in our immediate future..

Maybe I wasn't clear: Rates from most every POCO have been going up most, but not all of the time like most everything else. Most recently and very soon if not already, rates for the three big I.O.U.'s in CA, PG& E being one of them, are making a quantum change that will decrease the cost effectiveness of PV. If you are not on Time of Use rates now, you soon will be. If you are on T.O.U. now, the times of peak pricing are changing and becoming much less favorable to NEM customers, probably to the tune of making residential PV something like 20 % less cost effective.

If you're already aware of that, forget I brought it up. If not, and your vendors didn't mention it, some researtch may be helpful. In the meantime, Caveat Emptor.

Good luck.