Having a hard time deciding between LG and sunpower proposals

[pavlick]

Hi,

This is my first post. I got interested in solar power when i bought my house last year. I live in Massachusetts and the incentives here are still great. Got at least 6 proposals and i am in between 2 now:

31x Sunpower 335s all black + MI for 40k before incentives.

35x LG 335s + String Inverter solaredge 10k + Optimizers for 37.5k

The reason i am considering SP is because my wife really likes the All black and will make the panels less aparent in my roof.

besides asthetics there are few minor things SP is better like warranty and the rails.

So, is the price difderence worth this improvements and look? My wife think so, i am not so sure.

all this 25 years and even 10 years warranties look great but in reality most of those companies will probably not exists in 10 years anyway. Hard to tell.

Another question that i have is, once i get my system aign up for net meetering, can the state change the rules of net meetering or this is somerhing guarantee for x years if i get in before the rules change?

thank you.

[J.P.M.]

It appears that S.P. prices are not as high as in the past compared to the competition. Used to be ~ 20-25 % premium. Several years ago I did a life cycle cost comparison between S.P. and other decent panels and for what I did for my rates in CA, I figured, bottom line +/- a bit, for all the S.P. hype, a S.P. system might be worth about a 5 % or so premium over the lowest bid of all bids received. But that was a few years ago and not in MA.. Still, 2.5/37.5 = 0.067, so that's sort of in the ballpark - probably coincidence..

NOMB, but worrying about the appearance of a 550 ft.^2 blank monolith on one of the most noticeable parts of a dwelling seems almost an exercise in futility. Just keep the array at least 6" off the roof for ventilation and thus slightly lower array operating temps. Better for array efficiency/output and the optimizers may stay a bit cooler, perhaps improving their chances of a longer life in a harsh roof top environment. Don't forget to figure out some way to access the array and arrange the layout so you'll be able to clear snow off the array. Think ahead. Also, get your roof inspected and serviced. Panels last a long time. Give the roof under them a decent probability of lasting as long. Cheap insurance you will not regret. If it was me, Id consider going w/ the LG and put the $2,500 less tax credit/incentives on roof maint. Just sayin'.

The S.P. warranty is mostly a red herring. Panels seem not to fail much and when they do, it's usually infant mortality at/soon after install and thus covered by most anyone's warranty. IMO, the S.P. warranty is more hype than practical/useful reality. Besides, if the S.P. stuff is so good, why is such a super duper warranty needed in the first place ? Seems to be kind of a marketing oxymoron to me.

So, is S.P. worth a 6-7 % premium ? Maybe. LG is also good stuff - and probably, in spite of the S.P. hype, every bit as good as S.P., and will probably be around for a while as LG is a big outfit w/deep pockets. S.P. is ~ 2/3 owned by a French oil co. which is also pretty well heeled. Either outfit could drop the solar business in a hot N.Y. second, or be around longer than anyone reading this. Ther's no guarantees in life.

As for net metering, etc.: Rules can always change. Whether the rules - known as tariffs - can change, or whether or not users preexisting rights are preserved is a never certain. If preserved, which seems a possibility, at least for the near term in most areas, that preservation usually only refers to a promise of some sort that net metering in some form will be grandparented for the agreed term. Such arrangements say nothing about the rates charged for purchased power or payment amounts for outgoing or for any excess generation. Those purchase rates for customers will probably change in about the same way as for non net metered customers. Net metering will not freeze rates at current levels.Tariffs and net metering "guarantees" are also usually separate for SREC arrangements. Check w/the MA PUC for particulars.

Download a free but slightly outdated version of "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies", or buy an updated hardcopy for ~ $25 @ bookstores or Amazon. You're about to sink ~ $40K into something you know little about. Knowledge is power. Get informed before you go further and use the knowledge gained to maybe save a few bucks and get a better system in the process.

Welcome to the neighborhood and the forum of few(er) illusions.

[CharlieEscCA]

You got the SP premium calculation wrong. SP is 10.385 kW DC vs LG 11.725 kW DC, thus 3.85 per watt SP vs 3.19 per watt, or SP 20.3% more.

Both quotes seem very high. Unless Massachusetts rates are real high or state incentives are fantastic, you likely have a very long payback.

I'd both get more quotes and think long and hard if it makes sense moving ahead.

[J.P.M.]

You got the SP premium calculation wrong. SP is 10.385 kW DC vs LG 11.725 kW DC, thus 3.85 per watt SP vs 3.19 per watt, or SP 20.3% more.

Both quotes seem very high. Unless Massachusetts rates are real high or state incentives are fantastic, you likely have a very long payback.

I'd both get more quotes and think long and hard if it makes sense moving ahead.

Charlie: You are correct. Thank you for catching my mental sloth. 2d error in as many days. Maybe time for a stand down.

Given the correct prices/Watt, looks like the approx. 20 % S.P. premium still holds in some/many areas.

Maybe the $3.19/Watt is about the going rate in MA, particularly if other state/local incentives allow vendors to get away w/a higher price, or POCO rates are high relative to other areas.

My sincere apologies to the OP for not being more professional and more careful. I believe most of the rest of my post's information is still applicable.

[gcherian]

I am in now way an expert on anything but that is something I am seeing - when there is high incentives in place the cost is higher. So in the end, net paid by the customer is almost the same. Here in NY there is a 40 cent per watt NYSERDA rebate to the installer and then 25% state income tax refund (capped at 5000) and then 30% fed ITR. If MA is anything like that the general prices being quoted by the installers is going to be high. Just my thought.

[ButchDeal]

I am in now way an expert on anything but that is something I am seeing - when there is high incentives in place the cost is higher. So in the end, net paid by the customer is almost the same. Here in NY there is a 40 cent per watt NYSERDA rebate to the installer and then 25% state income tax refund (capped at 5000) and then 30% fed ITR. If MA is anything like that the general prices being quoted by the installers is going to be high. Just my thought.

NY does cost more than average for solar installs. But it is not the incentive that causes it. It is all the additional regulations and restrictions that the state has in place.

[J.P.M.]

I am in now way an expert on anything but that is something I am seeing - when there is high incentives in place the cost is higher. So in the end, net paid by the customer is almost the same. Here in NY there is a 40 cent per watt NYSERDA rebate to the installer and then 25% state income tax refund (capped at 5000) and then 30% fed ITR. If MA is anything like that the general prices being quoted by the installers is going to be high. Just my thought.

Incentives in the form of tax credits/rebates etc. are primarily to help businesses get started. Such credits benefit sellers and not buyers. Much like a rising tide lifts all boats, credits allow price inflation and a save story of "free tax credits" to consumers who have talked themselves into always expecting a deal. Such rebate schemes also make it easier for shoddy installers to stay in business, benefitting consumers not one iota. For those who would argue otherwise, I suggest check prices in areas w/ hefty tax break system for PV (like the U.S.) and compare prices.

In the U.S. at least, prices are higher to consumers,competition is not as sharp and because of that, there is less need for quality improvement in either product or service, all at least partially due to tax credits.

Further, tax credits have enabled the solar industry to get hooked on gov. subsidies much like adult children glomming off their parents and being allowed to not mature and thrive.

No way to prove it, but if that 30% tax credit did not exist, prices for equipment in the U.S. might mot be 30% less from the vendor, but I bet they'd be a lot lower.

Also, in the way of comparison, check PV prices in areas w/ high electricity prices vs. areas w/ low electricity prices. It's called selling to the market.

Tax credits help no one, including the solar industry and consumers, except the inept, or, for whatever reason incapable.

[pavlick]

Yes correct. The vendor of LG is offering more panels (they believe they could add more panels due the different in ratio of the panels and my roof design). Yes, it is around 20% premium, just wondering if worth the price diff. I am leaning towards the LG offer. This are the best quotes I got regarding price and company feedbacks on Yelp and Google Reviews (and SolarReviews). I got a total of 6 or 7 proposals.

Mass SRECs over the course of 10 years is approximated around 17k for my production (17 or 18 depending on the choice I go for). Fed tax around 12k and 1k for Mass tax. so I will get 31k in "rebates" of the 40k. So I pay around 9k in the end for the SP and for the LG I will pay around 7k after rebates. My annual bill is around $2.4k, so it will pay around 3 years for the LG and 4 years for the SP (if rules of NET METERING do not change).

The only reason I am considering the SP is for looks and no need to add a big Inverter either outside of my house or in my already full basement utility room.

So economically it makes sense (it is a new house, so all LED bulbs and tight home, I have smart NEST for AC and all appliances are Energy Efficient). So I did my pre-work (I also have the book, I saw it was recommended on every single thread )

Thanks for the valuable insight.

[J.P.M.]

Yes correct. The vendor of LG is offering more panels (they believe they could add more panels due the different in ratio of the panels and my roof design). Yes, it is around 20% premium, just wondering if worth the price diff. I am leaning towards the LG offer. This are the best quotes I got regarding price and company feedbacks on Yelp and Google Reviews (and SolarReviews). I got a total of 6 or 7 proposals.

Mass SRECs over the course of 10 years is approximated around 17k for my production (17 or 18 depending on the choice I go for). Fed tax around 12k and 1k for Mass tax. so I will get 31k in "rebates" of the 40k. So I pay around 9k in the end for the SP and for the LG I will pay around 7k after rebates. My annual bill is around $2.4k, so it will pay around 3 years for the LG and 4 years for the SP (if rules of NET METERING do not change).

The only reason I am considering the SP is for looks and no need to add a big Inverter either outside of my house or in my already full basement utility room.

So economically it makes sense (it is a new house, so all LED bulbs and tight home, I have smart NEST for AC and all appliances are Energy Efficient). So I did my pre-work (I also have the book, I saw it was recommended on every single thread )

Thanks for the valuable insight.

With my thinking cap on perhaps a bit straighter, a couple of questions come to mind:

1.) At $2,400/yr., how much electricity do you use ?
2.) Have you run PVWatts to get an estimate of long term average output per STC Watt of array and used that estimate to size the array ?

[J.P.M.]

NY does cost more than average for solar installs. But it is not the incentive that causes it. It is all the additional regulations and restrictions that the state has in place.

Some cost may well be attributable to added regulation and bureaucracy, maybe and admittedly, but I bet not all of it.

I am not in the solar business, but I was a sales rep. for industrial equipment mfg. for ~ 10 yrs. before changing careers to engineering, and given that experience and ~ 70 yrs. on the planet to learn how the game is run, I suspect there are more than a few similarities to the solar business.

I've seen a lot a lot of prices justified to customers under the red herring of EPA, FDA, OSHA or other regulatory compliance that, while somewhat justifiable, usually and commonly served as a justification for large pads in the price that I'm quite sure didn't need to be as large as they were. Sometimes reg. compliance was treated almost as a profit center. All the mfg. knew it, used it and although I'm sure I never saw it, tacitly colluded with one another to make money from it one way or another. All that was made easier by the fact that most of the competition either worked with, under, or supervised most everyone else in the pressure vessel, heat transfer and power industries at one time or another. Everyone knew most everyone else in the arena, as coworkers as well as competition, and they all knew how the game was run.

Perhaps the solar industry is different from the world as I (perhaps incorrectly) think I know it.

[ButchDeal]

Some cost may well be attributable to added regulation and bureaucracy, maybe and admittedly, but I bet not all. I am not in the solar business, but I was a sales rep. for industrial equipment mfg. for ~ 10 yrs. before changing careers to engineering and I suspect there are more than a few similarities to the solar business.

I've seen a lot a lot of prices justified to customers under the red herring of EPA or FDA or other regulatory compliance that, while somewhat justifiable, usually and commonly served as a justification for large pads in the price that I'm quite sure didn't need to be as large as they were. All the mfg. knew it, used it and although I'm sure I never saw it, tacitly colluded with one another to make money from it one way or another. Perhaps the solar industry is different from the world as I (perhaps incorrectly) think I know it.

My point is that NY had the regulatory issues before the incentives, and similarly the high pricing before the incentives.
NY city being the worst part of the state with even undocumented regulations like anything under 3:12 is a flat roof and flat roofs need a 6' setback across the street facing section and a 6' clear isle from front to rear.
even simple things add cost, like every roof needs a stamp plan set, add cost that most other states don't have.

NYSERDA itself has requirements that add some cost as well like requiring a shadow assessment. We have worked with them and they sometimes take Aurora models which we use anyway now.


The incentives that I have seen that do ZERO good are the Made in "state" ones. That give a very high incentive if you use equipment made in the state. The ones we have worked with have had the absolutely most costly equipment available as the only ones available for the incentive. One of which was TenK solar which is now failing. We have actually done financial models for the customers showing that it is cheaper and more financially beneficial to NOT use the incentive and get far cheaper equipment.

[CharlieEscCA]

What is SREC? Your net cost is great, but you are getting that 17k or 18k back over 10 years so you are losing the use and returns from this money. If you sell before 10 years, you probably lose those credits. Just food for thought.

[J.P.M.]

My point is that NY had the regulatory issues before the incentives, and similarly the high pricing before the incentives.
NY city being the worst part of the state with even undocumented regulations like anything under 3:12 is a flat roof and flat roofs need a 6' setback across the street facing section and a 6' clear isle from front to rear.
even simple things add cost, like every roof needs a stamp plan set, add cost that most other states don't have.

NYSERDA itself has requirements that add some cost as well like requiring a shadow assessment. We have worked with them and they sometimes take Aurora models which we use anyway now.


The incentives that I have seen that do ZERO good are the Made in "state" ones. That give a very high incentive if you use equipment made in the state. The ones we have worked with have had the absolutely most costly equipment available as the only ones available for the incentive. One of which was TenK solar which is now failing. We have actually done financial models for the customers showing that it is cheaper and more financially beneficial to NOT use the incentive and get far cheaper equipment.

And one of my points is that, separate from variable regulatory requirements, incentives in the form of fiddling w/ the tax system don't benefit consumers nearly as much, or much at all for that matter, as they do those on the supply side.

I appreciate the situation in NYS. I lived there for 40+ years. NYC is well known for its PITA regulations both written and de facto.

One of my other points is that if the solar business is like other businesses I think I'm knowledgeable about, those regulations can be and often are a profit opportunity that is masked as the cost of compliance. Curse the wind on compliance, but don't use it as an excuse to justify higher prices than necessary.

I do agree, FWIW, on the uselessness of buy local incentives. Those are simply B.S., but in the end no worse than the other incentives, just more visibly so perhaps because of their parochial nature. Sort of like protectionist trade policies that benefit no one except the outfits being protected.

I'm not bustin' on you. Just expressing an opinion that tax incentives are, bottom line bad for consumers, and bad for the solar industry. If you always use support mechanisms long after the need is present, the parts supported will either atrophy or never mature as they're supposed to in the first place. Any enterprise that can't survive on its own ought to change or die.

[pavlick]

With my thinking cap on perhaps a bit straighter, a couple of questions come to mind:

1.) At $2,400/yr., how much electricity do you use ?
2.) Have you run PVWatts to get an estimate of long term average output per STC Watt of array and used that estimate to size the array ?

1) I use around 950 KWh per month. Have 2 small kids, Electric Washer and Dryer. My wife stay home most of the time.
2) In PVWatts it is around 12280 KWh. So I am a little over (maybe for a Model 3 in the future). But also some winters around here are brutal and may offset this value some. So I believe I am on the correct value. I have been living here for almost a year, so I have some but not extensive energy consumption history.

Thanks

[ButchDeal]

And one of my points is that, separate from variable regulatory requirements, incentives in the form of fiddling w/ the tax system don't benefit consumers nearly as much, or much at all for that matter, as they do those on the supply side.

I appreciate the situation in NYS. I lived there for 40+ years. NYC is well known for its PITA regulations both written and de facto.

One of my other points is that if the solar business is like other businesses I think I'm knowledgeable about, those regulations can be and often are a profit opportunity that is masked as the cost of compliance. Curse the wind on compliance, but don't use it as an excuse to justify higher prices than necessary.

I do agree, FWIW, on the uselessness of buy local incentives. Those are simply B.S., but in the end no worse than the other incentives, just more visibly so perhaps because of their parochial nature. Sort of like protectionist trade policies that benefit no one except the outfits being protected.

I'm not bustin' on you. Just expressing an opinion that tax incentives are, bottom line bad for consumers, and bad for the solar industry. If you always use support mechanisms long after the need is present, the parts supported will either atrophy or never mature as they're supposed to in the first place. Any enterprise that can't survive on its own ought to change or die.

I agree in general. The federal incentive was intended to get the industry boot strapped and it likely is passed that now.
NY had terrible regulations causing poor adoption so they cam up with NYSERDA, which came with MORE requirements in order to get the incentive (shadow study, home energy audit etc). countering at least some of the benefit of the incentive. Further some areas of NY have added even more regulations and requirements which likely will outlive the NYSERDA incentive.

We have similar issues in some regional areas as well, like Montgomery County MD. MD is a very solar friendly state with decent incentives and costly energy. Montgomery county has a much higher per capita income so there are a lot of sales there, but we have to charge a little more due to the increased requirements of the county AHJ for things like stamped plans and warn the homeowners that it will take longer to get approval etc. Even though a home in a neighboring (or really any other county in the state) will be cheaper and faster. So far Montgomery county has resisted any efforts for improvement, though some other counties have managed to greatly improve the permit process and requirements.

Some times the problem exists, and government officials through incentives at it. In other cases they fix the regulatory issues, reducing costs and speeding installs.

Another place this has happened is in OH, we have worked with a few solarize projects there were the intent is to increase solar adoption. One of them kept coming back to us with why are we not getting more solar installs. I was on one of these calls and finally lost it. I explained that they have HOA / permit requirements in the two most affluent areas outside the city, that restrict residential roof mounted solar to areas that can not be seen from the street. This means that for any house on the north side of a street there is no good place for them to put solar. They tried to explain that there is an exception process when I cut them off and explained that we have received exactly ONE exception for all our efforts. Putting incentives and other monetary expenditures are meaningless if they are not going to actually allow the homeowners to install solar in the sun.